January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[NEG NAO]

9 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Im just saying that if La Niña is truly front loaded and somehow we escape Jan without any meaningful snow; it wouldn’t bode well for the back half of winter. 

For your info 2020 - 2021 was a LaNina winter in  NYC and December had 10 inches - Jan 2 inches and Feb 26 inches - I don't even know why i respond to your nonsense ! Next !

[SACRUS]

38 / 36 warmup is upon us.  Many to 50 today otherwise upper 40s.  Same tomorrow and Friday with Saturday warm and wet perhaps an inch of rain Sat pm.  Drier and still overall normal - above normal 1/11 - 1/15.    Beyond there WC ridge - EC trough could yield storm tracking opportunities with track the key to yielding snow/ice vs rain.  It does look to trend colder in the 10 days beyond 1/17.

 

1/7 - 1/15 :  Overall warmer than normal
1/16 - 1/24 :  Colder / WC ridge - EC trough - storm tracking 
1/25 - Beyond :  Perhaps moderation / near normal

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (2012)
NYC: 64 (1907)
LGA: 62 (2012)
JFK: 61 (2012)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (2014)
NYC: 4 (2014)
LGA: 4 (2014)
JFK: 4 (2018)

Historical: 

1821: On the 6th - 7th, A Nor'easter traveled from Charleston, SC to New England, leaving a band of deep snow stretching from Virginia to New Jersey. Winchester had eight inches of snow and Washington, DC , had 12 to 18 inches and Philadelphia had 18 inches. Temperatures fell to below zero in some areas after the storm. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

1873 - A blizzard raged across the Great Plains. Many pioneers, unprepared for the cold and snow, perished in southwest Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. (David Ludlum)

1886: A great blizzard of the 6th & 7th strikes Kansas without warning, claiming 50 to 100 lives, and eighty percent of the cattle in the state.(Ref. Wx. Doctor)
Florida suffered one of its worst freezes in history as a severe cold wave hit the South. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1887: Many locations endured record cold across the upper Midwest and Plains. Rochester, MN plunged to -42°, their all-time coldest temperature on record. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Bismarck, ND: -40°, Fargo, ND: -39°, Minneapolis, MN: -34°, Huron, SD: -30°, La Crosse, WI: -29°, Madison, WI: -29°, Moline, IL: -26°, Des Moines, IA: -24° and Chicago, IL: -15°. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1907: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1912: Many locations endured record cold across the upper Midwest and Plains. Rochester, MN plunged to -42°, their all-time coldest temperature on record. Many locations from the Plains to the East Coast dealt with dangerous cold temperatures. Blair, WI plunged to -49°, their all-time coldest temperature on record. Medford, WI and Columbia, MO set January record lows with -40 °F and -20° respectively. Locations that reported daily record low temperatures included: Aberdeen, SD: -39°, Kennebec, SD: -37°, Duluth, MN: -36°, St. Cloud, MN: -35°, Huron, SD: -34°, La Crosse, WI: -34°, Mobridge, SD: -33°, Grand Forks, ND: -33°, Timber Lake, SD: -30°, Sioux Falls, SD: -30°, Norfolk, NE: -29°, Waterloo, IA: -27°, Sioux City, IA: -26°, Des Moines, IA: -25°, Rockford, IL: -20°, Springfield, IL: -19°, Burlington, VT: -19°, Dodge City, KS: -18°, Chicago, IL: -16°, Elkins, WV: -6°, Beckley, WV: -4°, Hartford, CT: 1°, Philadelphia, PA: 9°, Lynchburg, VA: 10°, Roanoke, VA: 10°, Austin, TX: 13°, Richmond, VA: 13 °F. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Bismarck, ND: -40 °F, Fargo, ND: -39 °F, Minneapolis, MN: -34°, Des Moines, IA: -24° and Chicago, IL: -15°.(Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1913: The temperature dropped to 6 °F at Tucson AZ, setting the all time record low temperature for that city. (Extreme Weather p. 272, by Christopher C. Burt)

1971 - The temperature at Hawley Lake, located southeast of McNary, AZ, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. produced 30 inches of snow north of Zion National Park in southern Utah, with 18 inches reported at Cedar Canyon UT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm in the southeastern U.S. produced 27 inches of snow in the Bad Creek area of South Carolina, and claimed the lives of two million chickens in Alabama. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A tornado in southern Illinois obliterated half the community of Allendale, injuring fifty perons and causing more than five million dollars damage, while thunderstorm winds gusting higher than 100 mph caused ten million dollars damage at Franklin KY. Twenty-five cities, from the Gulf coast to Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1990 - A rapidly intensifying low pressure system and a vigorous cold front brought heavy rain and high winds to the Pacific Northwest. Two to five inches rains soaked western Washington and western Oregon, and winds gusting above 70 mph caused extensive damage. Wind gusts on Rattlesnake Ridge in Washington State reached 130 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm
Data)

1992: An intense winter storm buried parts of the Rockies into the central Plains with severe storms across eastern Nebraska. 14.8 inches of snow was recorded at Stapleton International Airport in Denver, CO. Snowfall totals ranged from a few inches in the Foothills west of Denver to two feet on the east side of metro Denver. 22 inches of snow fell in southeast Aurora, CO. At times the snow fell at rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. North winds blowing at 25 to 45 mph piled the snow into 4 to 8 foot drifts closing I-70 and I-25. To the north and east Cheyenne, WY reported 12.7 inches and Scottsbluff in the Nebraska panhandle reported 6.7 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: A great ice storm began on this date extending into the next day. Low pressure formed east of Wyoming on the 5th, moved to the central Mississippi Valley on the 6th, reached eastern Kentucky during the morning on this date and redeveloped along the eastern Virginia coast on the morning of the 8th. A strong high pressure system remained nearly stationary over Ontario Province, Canada and continued to pump in cold air near the ground. This kept temperatures below freezing throughout this event resulting in one of the worst ice storms on record for southeastern Pennsylvania, northern Maryland and northern Delaware. The freezing rain started lightly during the morning glazing roadways. As the rain increased in intensity during the night, the accumulation of ice started to down tree limbs and power lines. Ice accumulations were a quarter to a half inch across most of southeastern Pennsylvania, but amounts reached up to an inch in the northwestern Philadelphia suburbs. While there were 5,000 customers without power in the Lehigh valley, the hardest hit area was around Philadelphia. Approximately 590,000 Philadelphia Electric Company (PECO) customers lost power. This represents about 40% of their customers and was the worst power outage in PECO's history, surpassing the 400,000 customers who lost power during the heavy wet snowstorm on 3/20/1958. Approximately 150,000 (of 232,000) customers lost power in Delaware County, 134,000 in Bucks County, 112,000 in Chester County, 105,000 in Montgomery County and 89,000 in Philadelphia County. As of the 9th, 123,000 customers still did not have power. Full power was not restored until the morning the 11th. There were literally thousands of ice-related vehicular accidents and described as "countless" number of personal injuries resulting from slipping on the ice. Miraculously no one was directly killed as a result of this ice storm. In addition to damage to electrical lines, the ice accumulation on fruit trees brought a significant amount of damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: One of the worst ice storms on record hits northern New England from Jan. 5th - 9th. 16 killed and 500,000 homes lose power as one to three inches of ice coats limbs and power lines. By the end of the storm, electrical service would be out across seventy percent of the state of Maine. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: A trace of snow fell in Washington, DC on the 6th and this date, their latest first snowfall of the winter recorded here previously was  Christmas Day 1894. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

2008: A rare, EF3 tornado tracked across southeastern Wisconsin. Experiencing a tornado in Wisconsin in January is extremely rare. In fact, it had only happened once between 1950 and 2007, when an F3 tornado affected parts of Green and Rock Counties on January 24, 1967. That tornado in South Central Wisconsin was part of a much larger outbreak of 30 tornadoes across mostly Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. Wisconsin ended up with 30 tornadoes in 1967. 

2009: Western Washington: From the 6th to the 8th a Pineapple Express brings mild temperatures and torrential rain to the Pacific Northwest, melting snowpack from the previous month's record snowstorms and causing massive flooding, mudslides, and avalanches across the state of Washington. A number of precipitation records are set. Seattle receives a record 2.29 inches (58.2 mm) of rain at Sea-Tac Airport, and in Olympia a record 4.82 inches of rain falls. More than 30,000 people are encouraged to evacuate their homes due to flooding. Roads and railway connections are cut as highway officials close a 20-mile stretch of I-5 and Amtrak passenger service out of Seattle is suspended. Several cities declare a civil emergency. The Snoqualmie River at Carnation reached its highest recorded levels: 61.5 feet, (7.5 feet above flood stage) on January 7. The National Weather Service estimated damages at $125 million. (Ref. Wx. Doctor)
Damaging downslope winds were responsible for triggering two wildfires that threatened the city of Boulder. Peak wind gusts ranged from 75 to 107 mph in and around the foothills of Boulder and nearby counties. The fires quickly torched 3,000 acres and forced the evacuation of 1,400 families. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2018: STARTing 2018 (JAN 1ST- 7TH) Richmond had the COLDEST AVG TEMPERATURE ON RECORD from the NWS in Wakefield. Richmond average temperature has been 17.8 degrees if you average every hourly observation. This is colder than the 21.1 degrees average for the previous coldest Jan. 1-7, which was in 1918. Jan 8, 2018 Although it's historically cold, it is colder than the coldest week in Richmond's recorded history. The coldest week on record is Feb. 9-15, 1899, the average temperature in Richmond was 11.4 degrees or 6.4 degrees colder! January the 8th the warmup begins headed to 70°F on Friday January 12th 2018. The average temperature for the first seven days of 2018 were the coldest on record for Richmond, Virginia back to 1897. The -3°F that the Richmond International Airport had on the morning of the 7th was the coldest since January 1985 when a -6°F was recorded.

[SACRUS]

 

1/15 - 1/17

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/15 - 1/17

 

are we expecting a +PNA trough?

[NEG NAO]

30 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/15 - 1/17

 

That Alaskan Ridge developing and extending down the west coast will block the Pacific jet and warmer air from flooding the country. It will also direct the very cold air from Northwest Canada southeastward into the eastern half of the country. A possible Gulf up the east coast storm track is favored in these setups.........

[psv88]

Summer is here. Sunny and 46

[North and West]

That sounds terrible. If 8” of snow in NYC is the best this winter has to offer and the backside is worse, then we’re looking at a near ratter. The cold has been impressive though. Just wish there were more opportunities coming for snow. December was amazing; would be nice for January to have continued that trend. 

Glass is really half empty for you


.

[North and West]

huge storm potential

Push it back a day. I fly home from Germany that day. 🫠


.

[North and West]

Summer is here. Sunny and 46

Sun angle!


.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

Sun angle!


.

Only gets worse from here. Guess we have to wait until Dec to accumulate again.  

[Brian5671]

42 with full sun first 40 since 12/29.  Snow melting fast

[MANDA]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

42 with full sun first 40 since 12/29.  Snow melting fast

Expect I'll lose all but the plowed mounds by the end of the day.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Expect I'll lose all but the plowed mounds by the end of the day.

Still hanging on here but south facing areas bare...

[MJO812]

Cmc coming in hot with a coastal 

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

For your info 2020 - 2021 was a LaNina winter in  NYC and December had 10 inches - Jan 2 inches and Feb 26 inches - I don't even know why i respond to your nonsense ! Next !

Wondering if he is using something like chat GPT to generate his posts.  Most of them seem to poorly reflect something or other that has been posted previously in this thread and to change subtly over time.  Either way, the outcome is a synthesis of nonsense.

Edit: That may have been a strong word, but hopefully his posts will improve.

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc coming in hot with a coastal 

so many different solutions right now we got so much potential for a KU if all things go perfect! 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Budapest, Hungary and Zagreb, Croatia both got back to back snowstorms in the last 4 days, I am hoping we get something of that sort here next week! 

[Stormlover74]

clouds rolled in but still made it to 51

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

so many different solutions right now we got so much potential for a KU if all things go perfect! 

I would take the models past 5 and especially 7 days right now regarding individual storms with a grain of salt. There are so many shortwaves running around on the models past 7 days that they don't have an accurate solution yet........

[Krs4Lfe]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Budapest, Hungary and Zagreb, Croatia both got back to back snowstorms in the last 4 days, I am hoping we get something of that sort here next week! 

I've been following the European winter weather over the past week and it's quite impressive. Reminds me of winter 2012, 2018, and 2021 when Europe was getting blasted. I've notice they tend to have more winter weather during milder periods in the US. Winter 2021 had a snowstorm in Madrid, Athens, and even over in Israel. Always fascinating to see winter weather in places that aren't accustomed to it

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would take the models past 5 and especially 7 days right now regarding individual storms with a grain of salt. There are so many shortwaves running around on the models past 7 days that they don't have an accurate solution yet........

I have this good feeling we're going to get double phased clobbered by a slow moving system that drops 36 inches during a 36 hour event!

[NorthShoreWx]

55 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Only gets worse from here. Guess we have to wait until Dec to accumulate again.  

Nooo...NYC got 4"+ in December.  Doesn't that mean the rest of this winter is a burial?
 

[psv88]

49 and sunny. Wind is back though 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Can I go 3 for 3?

 

you asked?

we delivered 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Glass is really half empty for you


.

Editing suggestion: 

Glass is really half empty for you

[donsutherland1]

The signal for a PNA+ (a rarity since December 1) has grown stronger on the GEFS. Should a PNA+ develop and then be sustained, opportunities for moderate or larger snowfalls would increase, especially around or after mid-month.

[wthrmn654]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Summer is here. Sunny and 46

It's 46 by you?  I haven't even got 40 yet lol 

[wthrmn654]

39°, can I hit 40? 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

It's 46 by you?  I haven't even got 40 yet lol 

Corresponds with the persistent cloud cover over the east end.

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined