January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was thinking that for later in January, even if the subtropical jet became a little more active, the tendency would be for the dominant northern stream to result in either phase up too soon with a storm hooking too far to the left or the streams remaining separate too long and a storm being overly suppressed initially. 

WX/PT

Following the storm track shift in 2018-2019, we were only able to generate KU tracks in December 2020, late January into early February 2021 and January 2022. The complete opposite of 2002 to 2018 when coastal KU tracks were much more frequent.

Even during the 1970s and 1980s we would get KU tracks every few years. Like in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1983, and 1987. The difference back then was that EWR,NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP didn’t exclusively need KU tracks to reach around 25” on the season.

So my guess going forward is that if we don’t see a revival of KU tracks, then the major sites around NYC and nearby NJ will finish this year with below average snowfall under 25”.

The colder spots near the North Shore of Long Island could potentially nickle and dime there way to 25” since they currently have the highest totals. But some of those spots may actually average closer to 30” between the major observing sites where LI gains some elevation. I don’t think anyone on Long Island is going to reach 30” without a major benchmark storm later in this season.

[Monty]

What is going on with kdix? I saw this one day  last week same time in the am, these echoes will dissappear in a few min and I don't think theyre real. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Actually, I'm in the coal region of PA in Schuylkill County. I venture over here to read analysis, but rarely post out of my sub forum.

Generally, we're colder than you guys in the metro, but I live in a row where I'm insulated both left and right, so I only have two exposed walls, but the house is 110 years old, so not a lot of extra insulation. Still, I'm fairly happy with our oil consumption all things considered.

It could be worse. The single home across the street from me sees an oil truck every month in the winter.

My parents were from Shenandoah, PA.  Spent many a night sleeping in my Grandparents house upstairs.  No insulation, heated only by a coal stove and a coal heater downstairs.  No bathtub or shower, just a toilet in the cellar.   My parents would tell me of nights where there was frost on the inside of the bedroom walls upstairs.  That's why they all had goose down comforters (feather-tiks)...

[steve392]

1 hour ago, Monty said:

What is going on with kdix? I saw this one day  last week same time in the am, these echoes will dissappear in a few min and I don't think theyre real. 

Migratory birds? 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Following the storm track shift in 2018-2019, we were only able to generate KU tracks in December 2020, late January into early February 2021 and January 2022. The complete opposite of 2002 to 2018 when coastal KU tracks were much more frequent.

Even during the 1970s and 1980s we would get KU tracks every few years. Like in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1983, and 1987. The difference back then was that EWR,NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP didn’t exclusively need KU tracks to reach around 25” on the season.

So my guess going forward is that if we don’t see a revival of KU tracks, then the major sites around NYC and nearby NJ will finish this year with below average snowfall under 25”.

The colder spots near the North Shore of Long Island could potentially nickle and dime there way to 25” since they currently have the highest totals. But some of those spots may actually average closer to 30” between the major observing sites where LI gains some elevation. I don’t think anyone on Long Island is going to reach 30” without a major benchmark storm later in this season.

Just looking back on met fall and so far this winter, we have only seen one true coastal storm (back in the fall). That probably does not bode well for coastal storm prospects going forward. Normally, the fall storm tracks set the tone for winter. The winters that saw a bunch of coastal storms tipped their hand in the fall with a bunch of coastal storms. There is still no signs of a classic KU pattern taking shape on the long range ensembles. When you add to this the ongoing drought/dry pattern we’ve been in since the tail end of summer, 2024, I’m doubting a sudden flip to a bunch of coastals popping up. The long term trend has definitely been dryness with a very muted southern branch and a dominant and strong northern branch. Could I be wrong and some unexpected anomalous pattern suddenly develops? Sure

[SACRUS]

26 / 21 cloudy.  Snow showers the next 2 - 3 hours.  Warmer starting tomorrow with 50s by Thu in some spots continuing through what looks like a wet saturday which could be the warmest day near or to 60 for some warmer spots.  Trough swings through by the 12th and the period 13 - 20 looks to net a near / slightly below normal with perhaps colder period building in after towards the 20th.

1/5 : Cold / snow showers
1/6 - 1/11 : Warmer than normal - warmest 1/8-1/10 with rain Fri-Sat
1/12 - 1/20:   Near - below normal
1/21 - beyond : Looking below normal

[ForestHillWx]

Still cold; 25 here. Waiting for the thaw as the driveway glacier glistens. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1993)
NYC: 64 (1993)
LGA: 64 (1950)
JFK: 62 (1993)


Lows:

EWR: 8 (1996)  ahead of the blizzard
NYC: -4 (1904)
LGA: 9 (1968)
JFK: 9 (2018)

 

Historical:

 

1835 - It was a record cold morning in the eastern U.S. The mercury at the Yale Campus in New Haven CT plunged to 23 degrees below zero, and reached 40 below in the Berkshire Hills of Connecticut. (David Ludlum)
Jan. 5, 1835: Alexandria, VA recorded the temperature at -15°F. The Potomac River was frozen and the Chesapeake Bay froze down to the Virginia Capes for the first time in almost 50 years. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

1877: The minimum temperature for the date is -3°F. in Washington, DC for the third day in a row. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

 

1880: Snow began falling in Seattle, Washington, and would continue for much of the week. When it was over, more than 5 feet of snow was recorded.

1884: One of only two days in history during which the temperature at Louisville, Kentucky, never rose above zero. The low was 20 degrees below, with a high of 1 below zero.

1888: Snowfall amounts of 3.5 to 5 inches fell over Sacramento, California. The heaviest snow in recent history was two inches on February 4-5th in 1976. Click the link for a newspaper article from the Sacramento Daily Union, published on Jan 6th, 1888.

 

1892: From the History of Fayetteville, Georgia, "Another traumatic event occurred in Fayetteville on the evening of January 5, 1892, about six o'clock in the evening. A terrible tornado or cyclone struck the town of Fayetteville just as many had sat down for dinner. The storm killed three people and injured many more as its raging force destroyed numerous residences, outbuildings, and structures, including the academy, as well as killing abundant livestock. The event was written about as far away as Savannah."

1904 - Bitterly cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Morning lows of -42 degrees at Smethport PA and -34 at River Vale NJ established state records. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - The temperature at the east portal to Strawberry Tunnel reached 50 degrees below zero to tie the record established at Woodruff on February 6, 1899. (David Ludlum)
This record was broken on 2/1/1985. Locations that set daily record lows for the date included: Medford, OR: 13°, Yuma, AZ: 25° and San Diego, CA: 36°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1962: Two tornadoes, about 100 yards apart and each making paths about 100 yards wide, followed parallel paths from southeast to northwest through the edge of the Crestview, Florida's residential area. These tornadoes killed one and injured 30 others.

1982 - A three day rainstorm in the San Francisco area finally came to an end. Marin County and Cruz County were drenched with up to 25 inches of rain, and the Sierra Nevada Range was buried under four to eight feet of snow. The storm claimed at least 36 lives, and caused more than 300 million dollars damage. (Storm Data)

1987 - A massive winter storm spread heavy snow from the southwestern U.S. into the Rockies. In Utah, the Alta ski resort reported a storm total of 42 inches of snow. Winds gusted to 64 mph at Albuquerque NM. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms helped produce heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Snow fell at the rate of four to five inches per hour, and snowfall totals ranged up to 69 inches at Highmarket NY. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A strong Pacific cold front produced heavy snow and high winds in Nevada. Winds gusted to 80 mph north of Reno, while up to two feet of snow blanketed the Lake Tahoe ski area. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Central Gulf Coast Region. New Orleans, LA, was drenched with 4.05 inches of rain in 24 hours. An overnight storm blanketed the mountains of northern Utah with up to eleven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1993
Maui, Hawaii: Winds reaching 100 mph down power lines on Maui's Mount Haleakala laden with up to 18 inches of ice that accumulated on the summit.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1998: One of the greatest ice storms in the history of northern New England and Southern Quebec Canada brought coatings 1 to 3 inches thick across the area through the 10th. Through the 10th observations of freezing rain and drizzle in Quebec exceeded 80 hours, nearly double total average annual number of hours of freezing precipitation. The total accumulation of water equivalent of freezing precipitation, mixed at times with light snow and ice pellets, exceeded 4.3 inches at Cornwall, 3.9 inches at Montreal, 3.3 inches at Ottawa and 2.9 inches at Kingston, amounts of ice accumulation nearly twice the accumulation in notable ice storms that hit the Ottawa area in 1986 and Montreal in 1961. The thickness of ice accumulated reached 4.7 inches in places. Across northern New York and Vermont freezing rain accumulation reached 2 to 4 inches thick, and most of central Maine saw about 1 to 2 inches of freezing rain. The area of the storm receiving more 1.6 inches or more of ice held 18% of Canada's population: 56% of Quebec residents and 11% of residents from Ontario. It also accounted for 19% of all Canadian urban lands, 57% in Quebec and 19% in Ontario. At the height of the ice storm, 57 Ontario communities and 200 in Quebec declared a disaster situation.
In the United States, President Clinton called the National Guard to duty in the affected areas and declared 16 counties in Maine, 9 in New Hampshire, 6 in New York and 6 in Vermont federal disaster areas. The greatest visible impact to those affected struck the power delivery systems throughout the region. The large electrical transmission towers that brought power to local communities fell as easily as the power poles that delivered the services to the residents. In Quebec alone, an estimated 1,000 transmission towers and 35,000 wooden utility poles fell or were twisted beyond recognition by the heavy ice and following winds. An additional 300 transmission towers were downed in Ontario. Over a million households in Canada lost power, some for over a month. In the U.S., the estimates from New York State, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine were of the same order, in excess of a million household affected. The storm also downed millions of trees across the region; some of them took transmission lines with them, others blocked road and damaged vehicles, homes and other buildings. In the U.S., officials compared the level of tree damage sustained to the great 1938 hurricane that struck New England. The ice storm affected 17 million acres of forest across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, including parts of the Green Mountain and White Mountain National Forests. Another major aspect of this storm was the extremely heavy precipitation across the region, including over 5 inches of rain that caused major flooding in portions of western New York, especially the Black River Valley. Estimated damage was $3 billion dollars in Canada and $2 billion dollars in the U.S. The storm resulted in 56 deaths. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2003: A low pressure dropped 2 to 6 inches of snow across the region. Hundreds of traffic accidents were reported, including a 35 car pileup on Interstate 695 near Baltimore. (Ref. Wilson History)
 

[SACRUS]

More on the 1904 record cold NJ/PA on this date

https://thepressgroup.net/back-in-time-bergen-countys-coldest-day-ever/

[Brian5671]

Just back from Florida-still 3-4 inches of snow on the ground here which is rare for an 8-9 day stretch in Dec-early Jan.  Looks like it's all gone by the weekend however with the warmup

[NorthShoreWx]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Following the storm track shift in 2018-2019, we were only able to generate KU tracks in December 2020, late January into early February 2021 and January 2022. The complete opposite of 2002 to 2018 when coastal KU tracks were much more frequent.

Even during the 1970s and 1980s we would get KU tracks every few years. Like in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1983, and 1987. The difference back then was that EWR,NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP didn’t exclusively need KU tracks to reach around 25” on the season.

So my guess going forward is that if we don’t see a revival of KU tracks, then the major sites around NYC and nearby NJ will finish this year with below average snowfall under 25”.

The colder spots near the North Shore of Long Island could potentially nickle and dime there way to 25” since they currently have the highest totals. But some of those spots may actually average closer to 30” between the major observing sites where LI gains some elevation. I don’t think anyone on Long Island is going to reach 30” without a major benchmark storm later in this season.

Do you consider a "benchmark storm" synonymous with a KU?  

I think there can be future disagreements about cause and effect with regard to the association between such a storm and higher winter snowfall (which you seem to have defined as over 25 or 30").  I'm not talking about years like 1983 and 2006 which clearly fit with your preferred scenario.

It's interesting and worthwhile to discuss these associations, but sometimes they seem a bit forced.

I also think Central Park is not a good test case with the data challenges that have been well documented there.

[WeatherGeek2025]

a bit of snow coming down in midtown right now!

[snowman19]

Regardless of whether it gets cold again….I feel that just after mid-January into late January probably does (gets cold), with a longwave flow pattern like this, good luck getting big coastal storms….

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

a bit of snow coming down in midtown right now!

Nary a flurry here in Garwood, cental Union county NJ.  Sun just popped out...

[IrishRob17]

Light snow in Goshen, NY

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Nary a flurry here in Garwood, cental Union county NJ.  Sun just popped out...

didn't last by the time i got my coffee it already had stopped! 

[Stormlover74]

At least gfs has a few storm chances in the long term even if not all that cold before the 15th. 

[495weatherguy]

4 hours ago, Dark Star said:

My parents were from Shenandoah, PA.  Spent many a night sleeping in my Grandparents house upstairs.  No insulation, heated only by a coal stove and a coal heater downstairs.  No bathtub or shower, just a toilet in the cellar.   My parents would tell me of nights where there was frost on the inside of the bedroom walls upstairs.  That's why they all had goose down comforters (feather-tiks)...

That’s a great story.  Makes you appreciate everything you have now

[Cfa]

Flurries in Ronkonkoma.

Looking forward to the warm up.

[WeatherGeek2025]

snowing again in the city

[Nibor]

Graupel in lower Manhattan. 

[Brian5671]

nice snow shower here

[anthonymm]

Wow January looks damn warm until at least the 15th.

[vegan_edible]

25 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Wow January looks damn warm until at least the 15th.

everyone get your swim gear it might hit 50!

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

everyone get your swim gear it might hit 50!

people expect wall to wall cold-it never happens

[anthonymm]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

people expect wall to wall cold-it never happens

it does happen. 2013-2015 was pretty much wall to wall cold. it's just rarer now with CC.

[steve392]

Some lite snow falling in Dumont, nj

[steve392]

4 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

it does happen. 2013-2015 was pretty much wall to wall cold. it's just rarer now with CC.

Valentines day blizzard 2014 and the cold that month was epic! 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

it does happen. 2013-2015 was pretty much wall to wall cold. it's just rarer now with CC.

Those winters had several periods of thaws-1st half of Jan 2014 was a torch and Feb 2015 also had a 2-3 week warmup

[wthrmn654]

Jeez it's like a snow storm outside right now.