January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Reb]

ICON looked nice for the 22nd. GFS looks to be loading up the goods as well. We shall see

[WintryMixmaster]

I really thought the models were going to bust high on temperatures today given how the low last night was colder than expected, but the southwest wind really brought in the warm air and Knoxville is actually warmer than the models said it would be. Funny how the NAM is always right when it comes to any kind of warm nose but if it's the cold outlier, it's gonna be wrong 

[Wurbus]

Knoxville is warmer than most of Florida this evening. Looking at a temp map is gross right now. 

[Wurbus]

Also, that is one hell of a fantasy storm for the SE on the GFS at the end of the month. Crushes everyone except TN so it's plausible. 

[WintryMixmaster]

14 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Knoxville is warmer than most of Florida this evening. Looking at a temp map is gross right now. 

I remember growing up in New Jersey that the "cold/dry alternating with just warm enough to rain/wet" pattern was the absolute worst, but I'm surprised how often its happened here this winter (and a bit of last winter too). 40-50 degree rain isn't unexpected but the fact that we've had a lot of cold weather - just not synced up with storms - is really frustrating

[John1122]

The models that showed this just drying up imby are spot on. Their thermals were off, but the dryness was perfect. It's barely sprinkled here so far. Temp has fallen to 38.

[Matthew70]

Has the models so far tonight changed to not showing any winter storms?

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Has the models so far tonight changed to not showing any winter storms?

The GFS has snow over the east half of the forum area mainly. From just East of Nashville and East with 4-6 inches, with a major shift into the deep south and eastern NC (not a surprise) for very heavy snow. 8 inches in Florida, 12 in southern Georgia, 16 inches in SC, 2 feet in NC. Now as the GFS has been pretty bad this year, I doubt that occurs.

The ICON has an event with the mid-state being in the bullseye, and it's only 5 or so days away.

The Canadian has a much lesser event in the same time frame. But it was actually an increase vs 12z. The second big hitter on the 12z Canadian ghosted us and became a strung out light rain event south of us.

The EURO Ai is similar to the Canadian with event 1 with around an inch in spots, it's cold and brings a monster slider across around D10.

The EURO Op is Dr No for both snow events basically. The nice event it showed at 12z is a strung out mess and a half here at 0z.

[TellicoWx]

3k NAM is either out to lunch or at least trying to bring snow showers/flurries along the TN/NC border counties late this evening/tonight.

[TellicoWx]

6z RGEM slight shift west as well..NE TN folks may end up with a little something after all

[1234snow]

Just woke up to a healthy 1” to maybe 1.5” inch of snow. Roads are covered. Mix of rain and snow currently. Nice surprise Clark.

[Carvers Gap]

Light dusting here this morning.  Congratulations to @1234snowon the snow!  

I thought I would share the 0z Euro from overnight.  This is a major feature on the map, and must be worked out before we know sensible weather on the ground.  That is a legit cold air mass.  Both the GFS and Euro have below zero and single digit temps descending into the forum area w/ the amplification just after the 25th.

Is this a real feature?  No idea.  Modeling has done a good job of spotting cold fronts recently after struggling earlier this month.  However, they have tended to over-do the southward extension of the cold and the intensity.  If this were to verify, that is a major ice setup in the eastern Valley.  

Decent signal for yet another strong amplification around Jan 27-28.

[*Flash*]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

The GFS has snow over the east half of the forum area mainly. From just East of Nashville and East with 4-6 inches, with a major shift into the deep south and eastern NC (not a surprise) for very heavy snow. 8 inches in Florida, 12 in southern Georgia, 16 inches in SC, 2 feet in NC. Now as the GFS has been pretty bad this year, I doubt that occurs.

The ICON has an event with the mid-state being in the bullseye, and it's only 5 or so days away.

The Canadian has a much lesser event in the same time frame. But it was actually an increase vs 12z. The second big hitter on the 12z Canadian ghosted us and became a strung out light rain event south of us.

The EURO Ai is similar to the Canadian with event 1 with around an inch in spots, it's cold and brings a monster slider across around D10.

The EURO Op is Dr No for both snow events basically. The nice event it showed at 12z is a strung out mess and a half here at 0z.

Nice summary. Hoping most of us can score before Fab Feb. Signals are there but will the fun be too far east for west/middle? That's my main concern.

Obviously, with the WAA and dry air issues, no plateau chase for me this morning (kids are pissed off but what I can I say/do?), so hopefully I can do some traveling next week as needed. Sunny 30s is the same level as cold rain to me. Plus, kids don't want to be out in the cold unless they can build a snowman. Hard to find words, especially for young people in describing why this winter has not cooperated.

Bottom Line: In the past ten years, only 2016-17 and 2019-20 have been worse than what we've seen through 1/17/26, at least for middle. Yeah, I know the famous winter of 2014-15 got off to a slow start; however, I highly doubt we see a redux of that February 1 - March 15 time frame.