January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Reb]

ICON looked nice for the 22nd. GFS looks to be loading up the goods as well. We shall see

[WintryMixmaster]

I really thought the models were going to bust high on temperatures today given how the low last night was colder than expected, but the southwest wind really brought in the warm air and Knoxville is actually warmer than the models said it would be. Funny how the NAM is always right when it comes to any kind of warm nose but if it's the cold outlier, it's gonna be wrong 

[Wurbus]

Knoxville is warmer than most of Florida this evening. Looking at a temp map is gross right now. 

[Wurbus]

Also, that is one hell of a fantasy storm for the SE on the GFS at the end of the month. Crushes everyone except TN so it's plausible. 

[WintryMixmaster]

14 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Knoxville is warmer than most of Florida this evening. Looking at a temp map is gross right now. 

I remember growing up in New Jersey that the "cold/dry alternating with just warm enough to rain/wet" pattern was the absolute worst, but I'm surprised how often its happened here this winter (and a bit of last winter too). 40-50 degree rain isn't unexpected but the fact that we've had a lot of cold weather - just not synced up with storms - is really frustrating

[John1122]

The models that showed this just drying up imby are spot on. Their thermals were off, but the dryness was perfect. It's barely sprinkled here so far. Temp has fallen to 38.

[Matthew70]

Has the models so far tonight changed to not showing any winter storms?

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Has the models so far tonight changed to not showing any winter storms?

The GFS has snow over the east half of the forum area mainly. From just East of Nashville and East with 4-6 inches, with a major shift into the deep south and eastern NC (not a surprise) for very heavy snow. 8 inches in Florida, 12 in southern Georgia, 16 inches in SC, 2 feet in NC. Now as the GFS has been pretty bad this year, I doubt that occurs.

The ICON has an event with the mid-state being in the bullseye, and it's only 5 or so days away.

The Canadian has a much lesser event in the same time frame. But it was actually an increase vs 12z. The second big hitter on the 12z Canadian ghosted us and became a strung out light rain event south of us.

The EURO Ai is similar to the Canadian with event 1 with around an inch in spots, it's cold and brings a monster slider across around D10.

The EURO Op is Dr No for both snow events basically. The nice event it showed at 12z is a strung out mess and a half here at 0z.