January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Reb]

18z GFS looks more like the CMC this run 

[TellicoWx]

18z Goofy would be wild to see (highly improbable)....stalled arctic front with an STJ continuously overriding it...never ending snow showers lol.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I grabbed a couple of these from CPC...the MA forum has also posted these.

 

You're definite seeing a pattern change since we've seen this since fall in the upcoming days

[Weatheriscool]

1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

18z Goofy would be wild to see (highly improbable)....stalled arctic front with an STJ continuously overriding it...never ending snow showers lol.

One thing seems certain is that the next two weeks are going to be night and day different than this week 

[Matthew70]

Goodness snow on the ground with temperatures in the single digits.  Me likey.  Bring it on.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was just thinking that we are entering the period where models sometimes lose systems or change them in some way only to come back 72 hours out or so. 
 

Something to do with wonky stakeouts data sometimes in the polar/ N. pac regions maybe? 
 

I also want to add that I’m sorry for what your going through Powell 

[Daniel Boone]

Prayers for your Mom and family Powell. 

[Carvers Gap]

Ya'll need to see where the 18z GEFS ended its run...nice trend.  We saw that once or twice yesterday, and now it's back.

[BuCoVaWx]

Praying for you and your family Powell

[Maggie Valley Steve]

I'm praying for your Mom Powell. It's always tough when our parents are suffering.

[Bigbald]

39 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ya'll need to see where the 18z GEFS ended its run...nice trend.  We saw that once or twice yesterday, and now it's back.

Anything like the 18z Ai where it snows for 2 weeks ?

[Matthew70]

All I can say is paste TN white!  Bring those days of snow & cold where it don’t melt for at least a week!

[Matthew70]

Well the ICON is perking up I see.  

[jaxjagman]

You can  teleconnect  with what the GEFS shows into East Asia,while you have some possible winter in the long range,this should just be transient cold and a warm up afterwards.But this is also with the MJO related sorta speaking

So this is gonna crash the good PNA as heights lower into Russia/Mongolia

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

No thunder overnight. Not a good sign. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

At least the 6z Euro has a massive clipper dropping in late in its run

 

Overnight ensembles still have both windows. I'm using the charts for TRI since both systems have looked better for eastern areas:

 

 

[Weatheriscool]

So far, while the moisture has been appreciated, it has really under performed in my area and looks like we are headed into another relatively dry stretch, just a real head scratcher for me why it is so dry - it has probably been discussed but 

[*Flash*]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

At least the 6z Euro has a massive clipper dropping in late in its run

 

Overnight ensembles still have both windows. I'm using the charts for TRI since both systems have looked better for eastern areas:

 

 

Do you have charts for Nashville? 

[Coach B]

5 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Do you have charts for Nashville? 

Signal faded overnight back to the west:

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z Euro AIFS has a decent snow mean.   Models are all over the place w/ the track placement of coastals right now...so huge grains of salt.  I would think eastern areas of the forum and the Apps have a shot at coastal enhanced snows w/ clippers up for grabs by everyone.  The coastal storms will largely dictate the clippers which follow, and if they can get to our latitude.  Remember, clippers generally trend sharply north at the last minute.  So, we want them south of us on modeling.  As for the coastal opportunities themselves, they are still a bit too far to the east, but...the northern stream interaction w/ the southern stream may still accentuate snowfall over areas of the forum which are favored by phasing or partial phasing of vortices.  I would suspect a northwest jog w/ phasing, but that rule sometimes doesn't work out as modeling often under estimates blocking and cold air.  

As Holston noted yesterday, models are exiting the 5-7 day window where they will lose storm intensity for storm 1.  I would think during the next 24-36 hours that we see some more fireworks along the coast w/ phasing.

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of a medium to long range update.  Thankfully, we have some nickel and dime stuff to track in the shorter range.

Just looking at the app on my phone...real feel temps should be in the upper teens by this time tomorrow.  Quite a big change incoming.  LR modeling did a decent job w/ the 500 pattern for this.  Cold air will arrive about 12 hours ahead of what has been modeled as a transition timeframe for several weeks. 

We will likely roll a ridge through Jan 21-23, though that is not set in stone.  The 6z GEFS is very aggressive in keeping the eastern trough in place.  The 6z AI EPS gives us enough of a cold air tap that should be serviceable.  I think the idea that cold dives into the Canadian Prairies and then rules the roost...that looks like a plausible if not probable idea as of now.  

Part of the TPV being trapped over NA by HL blocking also looks likely.  Sneaky important.

They key is going to be the cold being centered over NA and not retrograding into Canada.  Most ensembles have the cold in the Canadian Prairies, but the Euro is more retrograded into the Yukon.  A good blend is the 0z GEPS which looks about right to me at 500.  

[Carvers Gap]

From MRX, and when I read about Cove Mountain...I always think about @Math/Met

Wind: With the 850mb jet pushing north into the area later this
morning, wind gusts will increase across the higher elevations of
the east TN mountains. Wind gusts from 35 to 40 mph will be common
from around 12Z through 18Z. Latest HREF probs not too excited about
reaching advisory criteria, with only isolated areas of 30 to 40%
probs. Cove Mountain will most likely see a 40 to 50 mph gust during
this time, but most areas will likely stay just below advisory
criteria. Winds then pick up again behind cold front tonight into
Sunday, with northwest flow around 30 to 40kts at 850mb. This will
be another period where near advisory level gusts will be likely for
the higher elevations of the east TN mountains. A Wind Advisory may
be needed with the next forecast issuance.

Storms: Nothing has changed too much with the severe threat.
Instability continues to remain elevated with only very low
probabilities of some SBCAPE later today just ahead of the cold
front. With surface based CAPE unlikely, the main threat will
continue to be isolated damaging wind gusts with any stronger shower
or thunderstorm.

Tonight into Sunday morning, additional moisture moves in with the
trough axis and any precip should mainly be in the form of snow.
Light snow showers are probable across portions of northeast TN into
Southwest VA. No impacts expected as snowfall amounts will be very
light if any.

High pressure then builds in Sunday into the new work week, with a
period of dry and cooler conditions through Tuesday. Downstream from
a amplified ridge over the PNW, troughing will deepen across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys mid week. The return of moisture and cold
temperatures may lead to light snow accumulations across higher
elevations of the east TN and southwest VA mountains Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure then begins to build back in on Friday
and into the weekend with moderating temperatures.

 

[*Flash*]

53 minutes ago, Coach B said:

Signal faded overnight back to the west:

 

Thanks for the swift response, Coach. I was kinda picking up on this vibe. Unless western trends are noted, it sure seems I'll need to head east at some point this month. Rooting for the ICON!

[Bigbald]

12z gfs clipper blizzard, maybe only in our dreams but fun to look at!

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS looks like an inland runner or lee side low which develops and causes lift over E TN 10-12” over TRI and much more in the mountains. 

[John1122]

ICON was decent for the nearly the whole forum area. It would be great to get a classic west to east blanket.

[John1122]

The GFS is going to be dream worthy.

[Carvers Gap]

Second storm is La boomba.

[Reb]

Feels like ‘93  

[John1122]

Chattanooga about to get crushed on the GFS.