26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3-6 for you. 

Is that your final call? 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Wiz, I gather that the "crosshair" indicates rapid lift through the DGZ.  What am I looking for on a skew-T to see that?

That is correct. When you see that signature that indicates strong upward vertical motion which will transport moisture into the DGZ and that's when you're most likely to get dendrites which accumulate efficiently. There are some other factors which need to be considered as well though. 

But here is an example from coolwx.com of the 6z NAM for BDL. This site is pretty cool if you don't have bufkit  but you can see the maximum omega bisecting the DGZ

Say you wanted to look for it on forecast soundings. What you would do is fine the DGZ (which is usually a colored as a yellow area on the temperature line) then on the left look at the omega (horizontal purple lines which indicate upward motion). The longer the lines, the stronger the lift and you want longer lines to match up to where the DGZ is.

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3-6 for you. 

I think 4-7" covers Kev and I well. I'd be surprised if either of us <4". Sure, I'm a little better positioned west of the river, but elevation should benefit him. I don't see cutoff being Tolland. Maybe Steve to Will?

[Damage In Tolland]

I think 6-10” covers almost all of CT except maybe far NE Windham Cty with 4-6 there . With continued expected bumps NE that may get to PVD

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

I think 4-7" covers Kev and I well. I'd be surprised if either of us <4". Sure, I'm a little better positioned west of the river, but elevation should benefit him. I don't see cutoff being Tolland. Maybe Steve to Will?

You have a better shot of higher amounts. Who knew Simsbury is a snowier spot than Tolland.

[moneypitmike]

CT and western MA will be shoveling.

 

Congrats!

 

[Ginx snewx]

[ORH_wxman]

Those earlier NAM runs were cracked out. Nobody was expecting 6-9” from ORH to Taunton. If you were, you had snow globe glasses on. But this looked like basically a clean whiff for central and eastern areas 36 hours ago so getting advisory amounts would be a big win. 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You have a better shot of higher amounts. Who knew Simsbury is a snowier spot than Tolland.

Jokes aside, I feel for E MA right now. This storm, and the last, were terrible there comparatively. (Obviously, this one still has to play out, but the goal posts are in place).

[Ginx snewx]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey Brett, it’s gone in two days anyways.  

That line of thinking is like being at  Pats game that is great but rather than enjoying the win you say sucks we lose to the Bills in 4 days.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Similar to Jack Drake's map that I saw on social media. I've found his forecasting to be solid—pretty solid consensus, similar thoughts.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The hi-res WRF models like Cape Ann and Scott’s area for some enhanced totals.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That line of thinking is like being at  Pats game that is great but rather than enjoying the win you say sucks we lose to the Bills in 4 days.

I’m always looking ahead 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

The hi-res WRF models like Cape Ann and Scott’s area for some enhanced totals.

Yeah I’m hoping for that to get to 3” or better. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That line of thinking is like being at  Pats game that is great but rather than enjoying the win you say sucks we lose to the Bills in 4 days.

Absolutely.  I never get that thinking.
 

 I likened it to having a fabulous day or two in mid April that are 75-80 degrees, but not enjoying it because 2-3 days later it’ll be 41 with drizzle.  Idiotic. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m always looking ahead 

And that is why you fail to enjoy many times. Be in the moment…it’s the only thing that’s real. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely.  I never get that thinking.
 

 I likened it to having a fabulous day or two in mid April that are 75-80 degrees, but not enjoying it because 2-3 days later it’ll be 41 with drizzle.  Idiotic. 

It would be nice for once to keep snow around longer than 48hrs. God forbid that happens. 

[Modfan2]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That’s different than what they showed in the morning news, higher totals there to the NE vs this am

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And that is why you fail to enjoy many times. Be in the moment…it’s the only thing that’s real. 

I will be enjoying it nude tomorow with dong and balls in snow. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It would be nice for once to keep snow around longer than 48hrs. God forbid that happens. 

Very understandable….but in the end it all melts anyway. So might as well enjoy it while you/we can.  But I get what you mean.  More chances going forward though. 

[CoastalWx]

Man hi res is pretty sweet. Anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog to post about it.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I will be enjoying it nude tomorow with dong and balls in snow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That line of thinking is like being at  Pats game that is great but rather than enjoying the win you say sucks we lose to the Bills in 4 days.

I don’t see how 6-10 melts with an ice to cold rain scenario for most of SNE

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man hi res is pretty sweet. Anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog to post about it.

Agreed. There is a nice northeasterly fetch as storm exits. Will enhance and linger snowfall over far E MA. 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man hi res is pretty sweet. Anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog to post about it.

It's his favorite thing to discuss. Enjoy the CJ

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Agreed. There is a nice northeasterly fetch as storm exits. Will enhance and linger snowfall over far E MA. 

It’s along the CF I think, but definitely Ray’s coke streamers coming off the water too. 
 

Hopefully guidance doesn’t regress today. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

It's his favorite thing to discuss. Enjoy the CJ

Should be nice there too. Might even get briefly wet there to paste it up a tad?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Should be nice there too. Might even get briefly wet there to paste it up a tad?

I wanted to add a 2-4" area out that way on my map yesterday but kind of held off because of the uncertainty but it's an interesting signal and models can really struggle with that.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z RGEM picking up on the coastal enhancement. 
Model run overall an improvement from 06z run. Not as robust QPF wise as other guidance.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah Reggie came NE a tad.