26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[ineedsnow]

I'm hoping for the 6z Euro AI 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Pretty evident someone is going to get a major COC tease .. there will be be a 5-10” band either close to New England or SW areas. Just north east of that coating to 2”

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty evident someone is going to get a major COC tease .. there will be be a 5-10” band either close to New England or SW areas. Just north east of that coating to 2”

Going to be a wild gradient that is for sure. 

Started getting excited seeing all these QPF maps posted and QPF trends only to get reeled back in looking deeper. I think I would feel cautiously optimistic though if I were in Greenwich or Stamford, New Canaan, Darien...maybe even Norwalk. And I say cautiously optimistic because they should at least get accumulating snow...just a question of whether that's 2-3" or something closer to 5-6" lol.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Going to be a wild gradient that is for sure. 

Started getting excited seeing all these QPF maps posted and QPF trends only to get reeled back in looking deeper. I think I would feel cautiously optimistic though if I were in Greenwich or Stamford, New Canaan, Darien...maybe even Norwalk. And I say cautiously optimistic because they should at least get accumulating snow...just a question of whether that's 2-3" or something closer to 5-6" lol.

Cautiously optimistic I will see more snow .. I’m on the Fairfield county line. In SW SEYMOUR

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty evident someone is going to get a major COC tease .. there will be be a 5-10” band either close to New England or SW areas. Just north east of that coating to 2”

Going to be wild-I could see nothing here to maybe 5 inches lol

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Cautiously optimistic I will see more snow .. I’m on the Fairfield county line. In SW SEYMOUR

You're definitely still in the game but may be right on the edge. You probably go towards Naugatuck/Waterbury and chances drop quite a bit. 

[Spanks45]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Cautiously optimistic I will see more snow .. I’m on the Fairfield county line. In SW SEYMOUR

Might be similar to what we just saw with regards to yesterday's system, just more overall.

[Spanks45]

Icon looked decent for most of SNE...hopefully it has a clue

[Sey-Mour Snow]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Going to be wild-I could see nothing here to maybe 5 inches lol

 Could honestly see 0 or 10” here

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[Damage In Tolland]

Nam gonna bust badly again 

[Brian5671]

Icon?  is this even a serious model?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 Could honestly see 0 or 10” here

I'm flying out of Tweed Sat am-rooting for nothing there and 10 inches here...LOLZ

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon is really the only hope for accumulating snow here. Prob would be a solid 2-4

[Layman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nam gonna bust badly again 

Bust badly in which direction?  Or simply in it's overall depiction?

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Layman said:

Bust badly in which direction?  Or simply in it's overall depiction?

Well he is expecting snow…so in that direction lol. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Nam's drunk brother says congrats narrow band around philly 

[weatherwiz]

GFS still looks good for SW CT. A solid 2-3 hours of heavy snow probably...actually even a subtle inv trough signature for N NJ, SE NY, and SW CT

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS still looks good for SW CT. A solid 2-3 hours of heavy snow probably...actually even a subtle inv trough signature for N NJ, SE NY, and SW CT

GFS remarkably consistent last 3 runs .. 

[DJln491]

no big changes on GFS, if you are in Fairfield county that's what you want to see.  I guess it throws a little more snow towards central CT, maybe Hartford gets an inch?

[WinterWolf]

I’ll take that SW of Hartford. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS remarkably consistent last 3 runs .. 

Yeah GFS has not budged much at all which is a great sign and probably is leading the way with this. Going to wait on the Euro then probably put a forecast together. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some thundersnow to our southwest. The ceiling for totals is going to be interesting...going to have to factor in speed and also consider that dry punch. But thinking about it more, I think that dry punch works to enhance snowfall rates and yield potential for thundersnow. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yeah GFS has not budged much at all which is a great sign and probably is leading the way with this. Going to wait on the Euro then probably put a forecast together. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some thundersnow to our southwest. The ceiling for totals is going to be interesting...going to have to factor in speed and also consider that dry punch. But thinking about it more, I think that dry punch works to enhance snowfall rates and yield potential for thundersnow. 

I think another very interesting part about this storm is that the have nots will be more drastic than normal.. The storm trajectory will aid in training of the heaviest band of snow and the dry slots.. 

[WinterWolf]

Hoping the decent stuff gets up and over this way…a couple inches would go along way. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think another very interesting part about this storm is that the have nots will be more drastic than normal.. The storm trajectory will aid in training of the heaviest band of snow and the dry slots.. 

Agreed. 

I haven't dug into ratios yet. I was thinking ratios should be great given how cold we are, but that warming aloft from just above 850 to like 725 might play some sort of factor. But what could help even into central CT is higher ratios to yield potential for an inch. I love these type of storms because there is so much going on in the mesoscale and storm processes that play such a large role. 

I really wish though the strongest WAA was farther northwest and I also hate how (again) the WAA weakens with time. This is going to net some negative busts somewhere, just a question as to where.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hoping the decent stuff gets up and over this way…a couple inches would go along way. 

Only to be melted by the rain the next day. 

What I'm hoping for with the pattern set up looking into January is that we have the cold that stays in place. That way when we do have snow events it won't melt the next day. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think another very interesting part about this storm is that the have nots will be more drastic than normal.. The storm trajectory will aid in training of the heaviest band of snow and the dry slots.. 

Watching that band traverse from the NW to SE yesterday, never quite making it here is probably what we will see again....hoping it parks it self just enough in our direction this time. For everyone, hopefully it is as thick as SNE...lol

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Only to be melted by the rain the next day. 

What I'm hoping for with the pattern set up looking into January is that we have the cold that stays in place. That way when we do have snow events it won't melt the next day. 

I really don’t care if it melts two days later…getting it is the fun part for me. 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah GFS has not budged much at all which is a great sign and probably is leading the way with this. Going to wait on the Euro then probably put a forecast together. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some thundersnow to our southwest. The ceiling for totals is going to be interesting...going to have to factor in speed and also consider that dry punch. But thinking about it more, I think that dry punch works to enhance snowfall rates and yield potential for thundersnow. 

The GFS is not bad with northern stream dominant systems and or where there is not a whole lot of complications in the setup like a phase/cyclogenesis.  This was a setup I warned people a couple days ago do not toss the GFS even if it becomes an outlier.

[Kitz Craver]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I really don’t care if it melts two days later…getting it is the fun part for me. 

Right, we can always find a way to melt it down here, lol. Have to enjoy what we get when we get it.