Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.

[ChescoWx]

Latest RRFS still has heaviest snow south of most models

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Latest RRFS still has heaviest snow south of most models

Big fan of the RRFS! It's top notch, usually accurate and fits my agenda...

[Mikeymac5306]

21 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Yeah I was thinking the same about the pre mature storm thread, maybe tomorrow would’ve been better but whatever. I’m down for a swing and a miss with this mess. 

The point is there's going to be a Winter storm. Who cares when the thread is started?   

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Yeah I was thinking the same about the pre mature storm thread, maybe tomorrow would’ve been better but whatever. I’m down for a swing and a miss with this mess. 

I'm down for days like March 29, 2025, when it was 80 and sunny.

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM is colder and practically.all.snow eastern pa.

ETA: im not buying it btw just passing it along. This one still feels like a thump to mix/taint....for now

If it's a solid thump I won't mind. But many times it's a whimper meaning snows for less than an hour then we hear the pinging (quicker than expected) sound of death hitting the windows....ugghh. 

[ChescoWx]

5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

If it's a solid thump I won't mind. But many times it's a whimper meaning snows for less than an hour then we hear the pinging (quicker than expected) sound of death hitting the windows....ugghh. 

Unlike many times I think this could be accumulating sleet as the predominant p-type...sleet counts as snow

[ChescoWx]

17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Big fan of the RRFS! It's top notch, usually accurate and fits my agenda...

Has anyone heard when in Q1 the RRFS replaces the NAM?

[Birds~69]

11 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

The point is there's going to be a Winter storm. Who cares when the thread is started?   

Veteran weenies are very superstitious. One time a newbie started a thread too early and a guaranteed lock snow storm/blizzard mysteriously sailed out to sea. He was stoned to death...

[Birds~69]

9 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Unlike many times I think this could be accumulating sleet as the predominant p-type...sleet counts as snow

Yes it does. I remember asking a MET that question. Do you agree or should it have its own category? 

[Mikeymac5306]

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Veteran weenies are very superstitious. One time a newbie started a thread too early and a guaranteed lock snow storm/blizzard mysteriously sailed out to sea. He was stoned to death...

Understood. I don't think anyone was looking for a monster storm from this.  My point is there's more to it than just snow which puts another level on it. To me, Ice is way worse than snow.   

[ChescoWx]

35 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Yes it does. I remember asking a MET that question. Do you agree or should it have its own category? 

No it has always been included as snow since it does accumulate slowly and can be measured and shoveled albeit not easily. I remember a storm in March one year and I think I received 6" of mainly sleet.

[ChescoWx]

[anthonyweather]

Never fear, map man’s here


.

[Birds~69]

16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

No it has always been included as snow since it does accumulate slowly and can be measured and shoveled albeit not easily. I remember a storm in March one year and I think I received 6" of mainly sleet.

How do you categorize hail since you can shovel and measure that as well in some instances and it usually occurs in the warmer months.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I will gladly take my half foot of snow followed by .3" crust. Where do I sign?

[Duca892]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

So forgive me if I am looking at this so say Allentown has .2 of sleet. Does that mean 2in of the 7.3in of snow shown is the .2 of sleet and then 5.3in of snow? Like the 10:1 ratio?

[geeter1]

First call from our local Met...

[ChescoWx]

5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

How do you categorize hail since you can shovel and measure that as well in some instances and it usually occurs in the warmer months.

That is not related to winter weather as it forms in a totally different way and even if we received hail in the winter it would not count toward winter based snow/sleet totals.

[ChescoWx]

27 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

So forgive me if I am looking at this so say Allentown has .2 of sleet. Does that mean 2in of the 7.3in of snow shown is the .2 of sleet and then 5.3in of snow? Like the 10:1 ratio?

no that is 0.2" of IP not included in the 7.3" of forecast model snow. Does that help?

[ChescoWx]

32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I will gladly take my half foot of snow followed by .3" crust. Where do I sign?

If only model snow was the real thing!! If I plowed all of the model snow we have not received my snowblower would be in the trash from overuse!! LOL!

[RedSky]

Euro didn't change much other then a little dry

 

 

[penndotguy]

WSW just hoisted 

[RedSky]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
111 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

PAZ054-060>062-071-103>106-250900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0006.251226T1800Z-251227T1500Z/
Carbon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Philadelphia-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Norristown, Reading, Jim Thorpe,
Perkasie, Philadelphia, Morrisville, Easton, Chalfont, Pottstown,
Doylestown, Bethlehem, Collegeville, Lansdale, and Allentown
111 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 4 and 6 inches and ice accumulations up to
  two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Friday evening commute.

[RedSky]

Exceeded expectations right there ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Merry Christmas

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Exceeded expectations right there ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Merry Christmas

 

Seems aggressive most likely due to being a significant travel weekend. Better to be safe can always scale back.

[jwilson]

NBM whisker is between almost 0" and 5" so there remains a wide spread of formulations across models.  Clearly going to be a meso-defined event so we probably need to get a little closer to onset.

25% chance of 6" or more at KPHL.  Not great odds but there's still a clear potential.  4" to 6" seems like a fairly aggressive early call, though, in my non-professional opinion.  I'd like to hear an expert opinion on that given the spread.

[ChescoWx]

It looks like only Chester and Delaware Counties in PA are not included in the WSW. I get these areas won't hit the snow thresholds but suspected due to travel issues they would issue a warning and then move it to a WWA tomorrow. But what do I know...

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, geeter1 said:

First call from our local Met...

throw this map out. No way does this storm produce the mixed lines like this. None of these boundary lines follows physical geography. What a waste. Historical weather patterns in my lifetime point to the evolution of the storm producing pingers in the last two hours of the storm event, then to a quick shot of freezing rain and then the final cake frosting of freezing drizzle in the LV with a normal thump of 6-8 inches of snow. That is a safe bet right now. All I can say  is it will be one hell of back breaking shoveling event. Snow blower special indeed.,  Under a winter storm watch now too

 

[geeter1]

9 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

throw this map out. No way does this storm produce the mixed lines like this. None of these boundary lines follows physical geography. What a waste. Historical weather patterns in my lifetime point to the evolution of the storm producing pingers in the last two hours of the storm event, then to a quick shot of freezing rain and then the final cake frosting of freezing drizzle in the LV with a normal thump of 6-8 inches of snow. That is a safe bet right now. All I can say  is it will be one hell of back breaking shoveling event. Snow blower special indeed.,  Under a winter storm watch now too

 

I've read previous posts from you on physical geography, and I don't disagree with you. I'm a subscriber to this weather service and shared it because it will serve to alert folks of potential difficult travel conditions... 

Best of luck with your cleanup after the storm... 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Exceeded expectations right there ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Merry Christmas

 

Well I see Chester and Delaware counties and Southwestern New Jersey are getting coal for Christmas no Winter Storm Watch here lol.  This goes right along with my thinking earlier Winter Weather Advisory SE Pennsylvania and Winter Storm watches north and northeast.  The more important snow line I-76 points northwest,  north, and northeast.