Boxing Day Ice Ice Baby!

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Time to put a fork in this one for snow. Gfs is on an island by itself with any chance. Rgem looks like a light qpf event as well. 

I was never expecting snow from this. It’s sleet and zr 

[winter_warlock]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Time to put a fork in this one for snow. Gfs is on an island by itself with any chance. Rgem looks like a light qpf event as well. 

 Never was a snow event. More about ice with this one

[bncho]

0z GFS decent shift north. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS and NBM

[TSSN+]

Every system is dry bones anymore. Should just get used to it. 

[Ji]

Euro says no. No ice or precip

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro says no. No ice or precip

The drought looks super healthy on that run lol

[mitchnick]

9 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

I was never expecting snow from this. It’s sleet and zr 

Wasn't expecting it, but was certainly hoping for it. And without hope, what do we have?  You see Rusty...

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wasn't expecting it, but was certainly hoping for it. And without hope, what do we have?  You see Rusty...

Idk but I’ll take my consolation watch lol

[WxUSAF]

RRFS says I’m getting 3” of sleet lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

RRFS says I’m getting 3” of sleet lol

Post it? 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Not snow per precip map. It’s a ton of sleet 

[mitchnick]

Something is up with the Srefs.  Next to no snow up north and precip is mainly across the MA. Check out Pivotal maps for latest 2 runs. Gotta be wrong.

Here's the link to 9z total qpf off Srefs.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122409&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Eskimo Joe]

44 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Something is up with the Srefs.  Next to no snow up north and precip is mainly across the MA. Check out Pivotal maps for latest 2 runs. Gotta be wrong.

Here's the link to 9z total qpf off Srefs.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122409&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

You thinking the mesos are trying to key in on a last minute Mid Altantic victory?

[baltosquid]

RRFS covering itself in glory before it is even used in forecasts

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Something is up with the Srefs.  Next to no snow up north and precip is mainly across the MA. Check out Pivotal maps for latest 2 runs. Gotta be wrong.

Here's the link to 9z total qpf off Srefs.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122409&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

A lot of that is from the Christmas Day rain if you look at the hour 27  6 hour QPF mean.

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You thinking the mesos are trying to key in on a last minute Mid Altantic victory?

lol @ at the very concept of “last minute mid Atlantic victory”

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You thinking the mesos are trying to key in on a last minute Mid Altantic victory?

No. Just wondering what's going on with them. Never saw them be so contrary to other guidance.  Maybe some usual members missing? Idk

[snowfan]

Looks about right. A non issue for most on the board.

 

[mitchnick]

Decent vertical velocities approaching the area at 57hrs on the Nam.

[mitchnick]

Nam total qpf a yawner again.

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Looks about right. A non issue for most on the board.

 

Ummm, that’s incorrect. Looks like a pretty decent deal for me. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The drought looks super healthy on that run lol

Going into January with a coating and an inch (based on what my neighbor told me from the last storm) would be kinda underwhelming imo based on the start we had in the temps department. Gotta see if we can start getting some MJO-driven (which I haven’t checked) southern stream systems. Maybe this energy coming onshore to the southwest (which I’m experiencing now) will translate east.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam total qpf a yawner again.

Significant increase over last run 

[baltosquid]

FV3 still believes in some snow before a changeover, lol.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

FV3 still believes in some snow before a changeover, lol.

It’s similar to the rrfs 

[soadforecasterx]

FV3 shows that rates can overcome upper level warmth. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

FV3 still believes in some snow before a changeover, lol.

Then it must be right.

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s similar to the rrfs 

No wonder the RRFS has it going south when it wants to juice up the suppression so much leading into things.