Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[RU848789]

After mostly minor fluctuations in the NBM, the latest 19Z took a decent hit in snowfall amounts for most, so I'd expect to see the NWS back off amounts at 4am by at least 1" or so for most if we see similar at 0Z, as they rely pretty heavily on the NBM.

[wthrmn654]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

After mostly minor fluctuations in the NBM, the latest 19Z took a decent hit in snowfall amounts for most, so I'd expect to see the NWS back off amounts at 4am by at least 1" or so for most if we see similar at 0Z, as they rely pretty heavily on the NBM.

And increase eastern areas

[Krs4Lfe]

Big decrease in snow totals by the NBM. Models feeling the big block to the north likely shedding the storm a bit. If we can get a big thump before the warm nose in the middle atmosphere, it’ll still allow for 3-6”. Let’s hope the north trend doesn’t continue too much or we’ll be sleeting. These heavy bands usually set up shop further north than expected. Id Expect that trend isn’t done yet 

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Big decrease in snow totals by the NBM. Models feeling the big block to the north likely shedding the storm a bit. If we can get a big thump before the warm nose in the middle atmosphere, it’ll still allow for 3-6”. Let’s hope the north trend doesn’t continue too much or we’ll be sleeting. These heavy bands usually set up shop further north than expected. Id Expect that trend isn’t done yet 

Of course you think this will trend north .

No model has warm nose past NYC

[BoulderWX]

38 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

After mostly minor fluctuations in the NBM, the latest 19Z took a decent hit in snowfall amounts for most, so I'd expect to see the NWS back off amounts at 4am by at least 1" or so for most if we see similar at 0Z, as they rely pretty heavily on the NBM.

A couple of inches less but would still be a fantastic post Christmas storm verbatim. 

[RU848789]

32 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

And increase eastern areas

Bridgeport and Brentwood went down a little, while Waterbury and Norwalk went up a little, so eastern sections of the CWA were a wash, IMO, whereas everywhere else throughout the NWS-NYC area, amounts went down 1-2", which is a much bigger drop, plus this decrease extended throughout the NWS-Philly counties.  

[RU848789]

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

A couple of inches less but would still be a fantastic post Christmas storm verbatim. 

7 inches to 5 inches wouldn't bother me at all, but 7" to 2" would suck.  

[RU848789]

12 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

When the precip started even the central Jersey shore was 34 degrees while Manhattan was showing 37 so yeah definitely was the HIE.

Not 100% sure on that unless all of NYC suffers from the HIE, as everywhere was 35-36F 32F with the outlier being Teterboro at 33F; we were 32F at 7 am 25 miles SW of NYC.  Would need to see LI/CT being colder than NYC to be convinced and I don't know the temps to the east.  

New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup
National Weather Service New York NY
700 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   LGT SNOW  36  30  79 SW6       30.33F WCI  31
LaGuardia Arpt LGT SNOW  35  26  69 S10       30.32S WCI  27
Kennedy Intl   FLURRIES  36  33  89 SW15      30.34F WCI  27
Newark Liberty FLURRIES  36  30  79 S8        30.31F WCI  30
Teterboro Arpt LGT SNOW  33  29  85 S9        30.31S FOG     WCI  25
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     37  32  81 SW12        N/A  WCI  30
Queens College   N/A     34  32  93 S8          N/A  WCI  27
Breezy Point     N/A     36 N/A N/A SW9G16      N/A  WCI  29
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     36  32  87 S9          N/A  WCI  29
Staten Island    N/A     36  32  87 S8          N/A  WCI  29

[WeatherGeek2025]

guys calm down we're getting a big hit. Merry Christmas

[mob1]

One cool thing about this storm (regardless of the precipitation distribution or how far north the mid level warm tongue gets) is just how cold it is in the source region.

Those northerly winds should keep us plenty cold. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

One cool thing about this storm (regardless of the precipitation distribution or how far north the mid level warm tongue gets) is just how cold it is in the source region.

Those northerly winds should keep us plenty cold. 

Reminds me of a dec 2013 storm when it was like 60 and raining in AC and in the teens up in nw nj. We had like 4 to 5" with temps in the low 20s but it still went over to sleet 

[eduggs]

The 0z HRRR is very dry through 0z Sat. Yes it's the end of its range, but light precipitation is a concern of mine. 18z 3km NAM was too. There are mixed signals on the lift/forcing. 

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Reminds me of a dec 2013 storm when it was like 60 and raining in AC and in the teens up in nw nj. We had like 4 to 5" with temps in the low 20s but it still went over to sleet 

went over to rain here, but had a nice thump. was all gone the next day.

[mob1]

Looks like NAM will come north, but I'm more interested in the precipitation distribution and intensity. 

Edit; it's actually a pretty big shift.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Looks like NAM will come north, but I'm more interested in the precipitation distribution and intensity. 

Edit; it's actually a pretty big shift.

LOL nam

Way north

[mob1]

My God

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

My God

Long range

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

guys calm down we're getting a big hit. Merry Christmas

There is no way to declare that with any certainty as of right now. It also depends what you define as a big hit. 

[Snowlover11]

lol oh boy.

NAM is ugly!

[MJO812]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

lol oh boy.

NAM is ugly!

Its always like this. Horrible. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

lol oh boy.

NAM is ugly!

stick to global until tomorrow night

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

There is no way to declare that with any certainty as of right now. It also depends what you define as a big hit. 

for central park a big hit is 4 inches

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

If you find out, let me know, I want to try some of that fine bud.

They have a Polar Bear now. Need to keep him cold.

[nycemt123]

My God

Does that... read 40" for our area?

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[Wannabehippie]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL nam

Way north

Go home NAM12k 0z run, you are drunk.

 

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, nycemt123 said:

Does that... read 40" for our area?

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk
 

Uhh no.

[nycemt123]

Uhh no.

I'm beyond exhausted and tired and eyes glazed from triple monitor at work. What is it looking like?

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[mob1]

4 minutes ago, nycemt123 said:

Does that... read 40" for our area?

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk
 

That's the precipitation rate (of sleet in this case)

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

for central park a big hit is 4 inches

Maybe in the last four years, you can call that a big hit in Central Park, because it actually hasn't happened officially. Even though most of the city had a 4 to 5 inch snowfall a week ago.
 

Historically there have been several 100 4 inch snowfalls in Central Park since 1870. I know it's semantics, but I wouldn't classify that as a big hit.

[donsutherland1]

Given the strong support on the earlier individual ensembles, which span a plausible range of scenarios, I will need to see a lot more before buying into the NAM's latest solution. That a single member of the EPS had < 1" snow for NYC and none of the GEFS members had it, suggest that the idea is perhaps a very low probability scenario. It's difficult to see that 6 hours has brought about a dramatic and sharp change in the synoptic picture.

Finally, the NAM was trying to dump 2.4" of snow on NYC with light precipitation, warming mid-level, and above freezing temperatures 12-18 hours before the onset of the last event. New York City received a trace. Let's see what the RGEM, GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show over the next few hours.