Saturday night/Sunday 12/13-12/14 Jawn

[Blue Dream]

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Canadian not too far from Euro maybe a bit more aggressive

That's the dream scenario.  Just looking forward to seeing a few inches with the Christmas decorations up...going to be nice.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-
131000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon-
Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Pottstown, Media, West
Chester, Camden, Morrisville, Pennsville, Wharton State Forest,
Jackson, Easton, New Brunswick, Freehold, Somerville,
Collegeville, Dover, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, Honey
Brook, Glassboro, Perkasie, Hammonton, Norristown, Moorestown,
Lansdale, Ocean City, Millville, Oxford, Kennett Square,
Chalfont, Denton, Atlantic City, Centreville, Cherry Hill,
Chestertown, Flemington, Trenton, Philadelphia, Long Beach
Island, Wilmington, and Doylestown
137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast
  Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey,
  and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[Zeus]

Yes hello I am here

[ChescoWx]

[LVblizzard]

18z HRRR is a big nothingburger north of the Lehigh Valley and also less robust near I-95. C-1" north of Blue Mountain, 1-3" for everyone else.

[Kevin Reilly]

14 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

18z HRRR is a big nothingburger north of the Lehigh Valley and also less robust near I-95. C-1" north of Blue Mountain, 1-3" for everyone else.

I mean that’s correct the average Will probably be 1-3” southeast Pa along 95 some lucky sole picks up 3-4” 

 

Lansdale Quakertown my under over is 1.1” north of there it drops off inch or less see what ratios can do? 
 
This is no power house it’s a fast mover with zero blocking that pops when it hits the coast then races away out to sea and replaced with sun and wind.  it’s not the first time we’ve seen a system like this.  The max potential really for the best favored locations is around 3 possibly 4”.

[RedSky]

Coating to 1" Lehigh 1-2" in my area 2-3" central Bucks south and east feels like an ez forecast

 

[ChescoWx]

Latest NAM

[RedSky]

The NAM of course pours on the gravy 

[anthonyweather]

3K NAM map man ..


.

[LVblizzard]

Regular and 3km NAMs are very different north of 202. Quakertown gets just an inch on the regular NAM but close to 4" on the 3km. Pretty similar for I-95 though.

[ChescoWx]

16 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Regular and 3km NAMs are very different north of 202. Quakertown gets just an inch on the regular NAM but close to 4" on the 3km. Pretty similar for I-95 though.

3KM higher resolution

[LVblizzard]

9 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

3KM higher resolution

Yeah I normally trust the higher res version more less than 48 hours out. The regular NAM often doesn’t make much sense with mesoscale features due to its lower resolution.

[Ralph Wiggum]

RGEM is another nice hit

[kickingupastorm]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RGEM is another nice hit

Can you please post the map?

[JTA66]

18z GFS obliterates Kamu 

[LVblizzard]

Aside from the 18z HRRR and 12km NAM, all models in the evening suite have either held serve or gotten a little more amplified. Also, 21z RAP now gets 2” nearly to Scranton while the I-95 corridor sees 4-6”. Wonder what this means for the 0z runs…will we see a more robust system?

[Birds~69]

18 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Aside from the 18z HRRR and 12km NAM, all models in the evening suite have either held serve or gotten a little more amplified. Also, 21z RAP now gets 2” nearly to Scranton while the I-95 corridor sees 4-6”. Wonder what this means for the 0z runs…will we see a more robust system?

Better chance the rug being pulled out or Lucy screwing with Charlie Brown kicking the football...

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Aside from the 18z HRRR and 12km NAM, all models in the evening suite have either held serve or gotten a little more amplified. Also, 21z RAP now gets 2” nearly to Scranton while the I-95 corridor sees 4-6”. Wonder what this means for the 0z runs…will we see a more robust system?

Yea could be the storm is slowing down a bit and drawing in more moisture off the Atlantic or the models are picking up on the best lift and convergence which to me may be more likely with a squeeze effect out of all the available moisture.  This will be fun to see unfold.

[Birds~69]

Cecily has the two to four going a little more North and West and all the way to the shore. Released an hour ago....