Blue Dream Posted yesterday at 06:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:13 PM 6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Canadian not too far from Euro maybe a bit more aggressive That's the dream scenario. Just looking forward to seeing a few inches with the Christmas decorations up...going to be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 06:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:43 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106- 131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon- Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Pottstown, Media, West Chester, Camden, Morrisville, Pennsville, Wharton State Forest, Jackson, Easton, New Brunswick, Freehold, Somerville, Collegeville, Dover, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, Honey Brook, Glassboro, Perkasie, Hammonton, Norristown, Moorestown, Lansdale, Ocean City, Millville, Oxford, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Denton, Atlantic City, Centreville, Cherry Hill, Chestertown, Flemington, Trenton, Philadelphia, Long Beach Island, Wilmington, and Doylestown 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted yesterday at 06:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:43 PM Yes hello I am here 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 06:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:52 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted yesterday at 07:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:41 PM 18z HRRR is a big nothingburger north of the Lehigh Valley and also less robust near I-95. C-1" north of Blue Mountain, 1-3" for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted yesterday at 07:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:55 PM 14 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 18z HRRR is a big nothingburger north of the Lehigh Valley and also less robust near I-95. C-1" north of Blue Mountain, 1-3" for everyone else. I mean that’s correct the average Will probably be 1-3” southeast Pa along 95 some lucky sole picks up 3-4” Lansdale Quakertown my under over is 1.1” north of there it drops off inch or less see what ratios can do? This is no power house it’s a fast mover with zero blocking that pops when it hits the coast then races away out to sea and replaced with sun and wind. it’s not the first time we’ve seen a system like this. The max potential really for the best favored locations is around 3 possibly 4”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted yesterday at 08:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:22 PM Coating to 1" Lehigh 1-2" in my area 2-3" central Bucks south and east feels like an ez forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 08:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:22 PM Latest NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted yesterday at 08:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:24 PM The NAM of course pours on the gravy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted yesterday at 08:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:24 PM 3K NAM map man ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted yesterday at 08:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:27 PM Regular and 3km NAMs are very different north of 202. Quakertown gets just an inch on the regular NAM but close to 4" on the 3km. Pretty similar for I-95 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 08:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:45 PM 16 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Regular and 3km NAMs are very different north of 202. Quakertown gets just an inch on the regular NAM but close to 4" on the 3km. Pretty similar for I-95 though. 3KM higher resolution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted yesterday at 08:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:56 PM 9 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: 3KM higher resolution Yeah I normally trust the higher res version more less than 48 hours out. The regular NAM often doesn’t make much sense with mesoscale features due to its lower resolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 09:10 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 09:10 PM RGEM is another nice hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted yesterday at 09:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:40 PM 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM is another nice hit Can you please post the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 18z GFS obliterates Kamu 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Aside from the 18z HRRR and 12km NAM, all models in the evening suite have either held serve or gotten a little more amplified. Also, 21z RAP now gets 2” nearly to Scranton while the I-95 corridor sees 4-6”. Wonder what this means for the 0z runs…will we see a more robust system? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 18 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Aside from the 18z HRRR and 12km NAM, all models in the evening suite have either held serve or gotten a little more amplified. Also, 21z RAP now gets 2” nearly to Scranton while the I-95 corridor sees 4-6”. Wonder what this means for the 0z runs…will we see a more robust system? Better chance the rug being pulled out or Lucy screwing with Charlie Brown kicking the football... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 20 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Aside from the 18z HRRR and 12km NAM, all models in the evening suite have either held serve or gotten a little more amplified. Also, 21z RAP now gets 2” nearly to Scranton while the I-95 corridor sees 4-6”. Wonder what this means for the 0z runs…will we see a more robust system? Yea could be the storm is slowing down a bit and drawing in more moisture off the Atlantic or the models are picking up on the best lift and convergence which to me may be more likely with a squeeze effect out of all the available moisture. This will be fun to see unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Cecily has the two to four going a little more North and West and all the way to the shore. Released an hour ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Hoping to avoid to much of a delayed start with the rain as well as getting into that quasi stationary band that some mesos have showed. Should be a decent storm forum wide for most to get on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago DT is all in has the 4" line roughly through Sellersville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago The experimental replacement NAM is juiced 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago I fear being in the substance zone out here in Western Berks it’s happened before and it’s not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago I will be in Point Pleasant, NJ next 2 days right on the beach. Wish me luck. Big boom or bust potential there in Monmouth. GL to yous guys on the homefront. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simbasad2 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Here's my first call, going a little bit on the aggressive side with the band that sets up over I-95. I think that the regional models (NAM/RDPS/RRFS etc..) have a better handling on how this storm will do has there will be important mesoscale features determining total snowfall that the global models just aren't able to resolve. My thinking is that hypothetically if the banding can really get going along I-95 then NW and SE areas wouldn't do as well because of the subsidence that would result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 4 hours ago, kickingupastorm said: Can you please post the map? Here is the 18z (for snow by 20z Sunday) - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Latest HRRR beefed up totals everywhere. Good start to the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simbasad2 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago What the hell is this 00z NAM lmfao... I think this solution is unlikely at the moment so this doesn't worry me, but this is a really funny snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Temps aren't going to be far from freezing the entire event. Thinking 10:1 is the best we'll achieve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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