Saturday night/Sunday 12/13-12/14 Jawn

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looking like the first shovelable snow for a good chunk of the region. Discuss the jawn here.

Go Birds!

  

[Duca892]

Will gladly take another 1in here in Whitehall PA. 

[Duca892]

GFS essentially gives the shaft anyone north of like mid-bucks county. From there to Philly it is about 1-3in

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS essentially gives the shaft anyone north of like mid-bucks county. From there to Philly it is about 1-3in

Meso event...lean  towards meso models

[Albedoman]

19 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS essentially gives the shaft anyone north of like mid-bucks county. From there to Philly it is about 1-3in

you should be looking at the mesoscale models now. GFS is unreliable IMHO, especially with digging clippers for our area

[The Iceman]

Wont be excited until tomorrow night but looking like the first measurable event for mostly everyone.

[simbasad2]

Created sort of a "0.5th call" as we approach around 60 hours from precipitation onset. Don't pay attention to the numbers on the side (I even crossed it out) just focus on the shade of the color. While not a full forecast, it does outline some aspects of my thoughts such as

1. Snow more favored for I-95 and surrounding suburbs, but slightly less confidence as you travel northbound on I-95 closer to NYC

2. Snow less likely as you head towards the far northwest suburbs and the shore

3. Despite these differences, the entire map is shaded as I think this will be an event where everyone in the region has a very good shot at getting some sort of snowfall

[penndotguy]

So wait, there is no mix with sleet and freezing rain then rain? Wow sound the alarms lol. I know being out here in the far West burbs we’re looking at a lesser amount than 95 but I’ve seen these Clippers do wierd things. I’ve seen a narrow banding happen before right through Reading Pa. not saying it’s like but something to keep an eye on

[ChescoWx]

[LVblizzard]

I went with 2-4” for the Lehigh Valley on my page. Not buying the GFS (which stubbornly held serve at 0z), it’s always lost in the short to medium range and doesn’t catch on until the day before.

[Heisy]

Good bump on 6z euro and EPS. I’d set the over under for Philly at 3”


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[Blue Dream]

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Good bump on 6z euro and EPS. I’d set the over under for Philly at 3”


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Heisy is in the house...it's happening

[anthonyweather]

So wait, there is no mix with sleet and freezing rain then rain? Wow sound the alarms lol. I know being out here in the far West burbs we’re looking at a lesser amount than 95 but I’ve seen these Clippers do wierd things. I’ve seen a narrow banding happen before right through Reading Pa. not saying it’s like but something to keep an eye on

Higher ratio to the north too


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[Blue Dream]

Be nice to some white with the Christmas decorations this weekend

[anthonyweather]

I have 4-5” of snowpack, should add another 1-3 Sunday, hoping we avoid rain at weeks end. Really feels like Christmas. Coldest December I can remember. The Lehigh river is half frozen


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[ChescoWx]

I would go 1" to 3" from NW Chesco up through the Lehigh Valley

2" to 4" from Central Chesco down through Philly I95

1" to 2" toward the Jersey shore

[ChescoWx]

12z NAM pretty consistent

 

[JTA66]

Quick hitter on the NAM. Perfect timing, too. Coming at night with cold ground will give us instant stickage.

And Ralph, if you had hair one on your jawn, you’d have started the Christmas blizzard thread already 

[anthonyweather]

NAM definitely caving to the GFS


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[anthonyweather]

NAM trend


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[mattinpa]

Well in this flow I’ll take an inch to set the mood.

[ChescoWx]

NAM was steady between 6z and 12z

[Newman]

A couple things I'm interested in:

1. As we near this event, how do the mesos trend with the upper level jet and any small ticks in TPV placement to allow greater height rises (or worsening).

2. QPF trends on guidance, especially along the northwest edge of the precip shield. Latest RGEM stays wet for the Lehigh Valley (0.2-0.3" of precip), NAM much drier.

3. Post-storm, I'm curious what the SLRs end up being. The NAMs are the most aggressive (no surprise) in some solid omega within the DGZ and also 850mb fronto, but mostly along and south of I-95 once the storm starts to get going a bit. I'm curious to compare 10:1 and Kuchera model maps to reality.

[Ralph Wiggum]

FV3 essentially misses the area and is wayyyy South.

RGEM is a SECS is 7" lollis in Monmouth Cty

[JTA66]

Maybe the GFS was right all along?  

[anthonyweather]

Maybe the GFS was right all along?  

Gfs nice tick north lol


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[LVblizzard]

Just now, JTA66 said:

Maybe the GFS was right all along?  

Doubt it. 12z GFS finally got a clue and came on board, at least somewhat. 2-4” along I-95, 1” to the Lehigh Valley.