Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area

[MJO812]

Gfs is still in its own  world. Even the AI gfs is with the other models.

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

Central Park record may still stand which is incredible given literally all other areas have had a 4 inch snowfall in that time frame lol.

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Central Park record may still stand which is incredible given literally all other areas have had a 4 inch snowfall in that time frame lol.

I live in the UWS and there were a few events which I measured at or above 4 inches in the past several years. They just don't know how to measure.

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro and Euro give NYC 2-4 inches. Nice little bump up.

Last minute amplified trends that usually screw us could work in our favor 

[EastonSN+]

Clippers are obviously no longer "extinct" lol.

Where I live in coastal Connecticut clippers generally disappointed. Hopefully this one produces.

[NEG NAO]

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Central Park record may still stand which is incredible given literally all other areas have had a 4 inch snowfall in that time frame lol.

LGA is in the same boat.

11 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

I live in the UWS and there were a few events which I measured at or above 4 inches in the past several years. They just don't know how to measure.

We are talking about daily measurements and not storm totals spanning multiple days.

10 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Clippers are obviously no longer "extinct" lol.

Where I live in coastal Connecticut clippers generally disappointed. Hopefully this one produces.

No one said that they were. Just that we don’t get as much snow from them regularly as we used to.

[jm1220]

Like I said a couple days ago, if this covers the grass completely and makes it look outside like it feels, I'd consider that a big win. Hopefully we can get a bit more like 3-5" but this is a very fast moving system that's getting squashed SE, so it can't really amp in time and the fast flow is pushing it east. The squashed like a bug models can still verify where we get little or maybe an inch or two because this is still overall a hostile pattern for snow. We'll have to see at 12z if the more amped models have a clue or it gets squashed like a bug. 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Central Park record may still stand which is incredible given literally all other areas have had a 4 inch snowfall in that time frame lol.

Yeah, that one is absolutely ridiculous because they were two instances in February 2024 we’re almost every single surrounding place recorded at least 4 inches of snow, including JFK, which received around 8 inches of snow in that surprise snow band that’s set up in mid February 2024. However, the snowstorm that was earlier that month had all places around Central Park receiving at least 5 inches of snow and somehow Central Park just below 4 inches. Even last year around the MLK day snow event, all other recording sites and most areas nearby were able to just reach 4 inches if I’m not mistaken. Somehow Central Park always comes up short

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah, that one is absolutely ridiculous because they were two instances in February 2024 we’re almost every single surrounding place recorded at least 4 inches of snow, including JFK, which received around 8 inches of snow in that surprise snow band that’s set up in mid February 2024. However, the snowstorm that was earlier that month had all places around Central Park receiving at least 5 inches of snow and somehow Central Park just below 4 inches. Even last year around the MLK day snow event, all other recording sites and most areas nearby were able to just reach 4 inches if I’m not mistaken. Somehow Central Park always comes up short

The heaviest with that event went just south of the NYC to LGA corridor so the lack of a 4” daily measurement in those locations made sense since it was such a narrow band.

 

[NEG NAO]

[NittanyWx]

I like the depth of the DGZ with this one.  A little liquid goes a long way.  Great test case for AI modeling here with the more amped and juicier solution and a notable difference in trough tilt.  I think this is a measurable one for the coast at least.

This vort here is holding the keys to the difference in more neutralish rough tilt vs more positive.

 

I don't know the answer yet on whether AI is better poised to be the better predictor vs NWP on trough axis tilt and whether this is a use case where it has skill.  I do know the Euro is further north than the GFS at 48 hours, has a less positive tilt and if I'd have to guess in most cases the trend in recent years is north late.

 

I wouldn't necessarily dismiss plowable fluff at this stage for the coast...

 

The confluence near us is the counterargument to that.

[BoulderWX]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Looks very reasonable - the rest is just noise! 

[mob1]

Overnight trends were discouraging, hopefully the 12Z runs are a bit better but for now the only model that improved is the 6Z Euro. 

[mob1]

Not a good start. HRRR doesn't look great either. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Not a good start. HRRR doesn't look great either. 

I mean what are people really expecting with a very fast progressive flow? 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

I mean what are people really expecting with a very fast progressive flow? 

Gfs ftw?

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

I mean what are people really expecting with a very fast progressive flow? 

So south jersey can get 4” because of fast progressive flow, by ny metro cant. Lets break that down scientifically. Explain plz. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

So south jersey can get 4” because of fast progressive flow, by ny metro cant. Lets break that down scientifically. Explain plz. 

Just pointing out the differences between over night runs to 6z runs is a matter of an inch. This was never anything more than a 1-3” light event. No need to go into panic mode if models show a little less at 6z cause we all know at 12z it will whiff the other way. 

[MJO812]

1-3 inches is still a good call for NYC.

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

1-3 inches is still a good call for NYC.

Looking more like a whiff at the moment. In the past, these snow bands have set up further north than modeled, but that's when there was a more negative tilt which would allow bands to often move further north than modeled. Can't do that hear due to the fast flow

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looking more like a whiff at the moment. In the past, these snow bands have set up further north than modeled, but that's when there was a more negative tilt which would allow bands to often move further north than modeled. Can't do that hear due to the fast flow

This has to be Colin or snowman19 2.0

[BoulderWX]

1-3 seems like a good call this AM; 

[psv88]

Still like 1-3” area wide…

[mob1]

3K NAM also moved SE, with 1-2" for the area now. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

3K NAM also moved SE, with northern parts of NYC getting next to nothing. 

Hard to take the nam seriously even close to an event. It has failed so many times. 

But this is a progressive pattern so 1-3 is a good call.

[mob1]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Hard to take the nam seriously even close to an event. It has failed so many times. 

But this is a progressive pattern so 1-3 is a good call.

It was a bit better than I thought, but overall I think it's time to temper expectations a bit. 

[BxEngine]

16 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Just pointing out the differences between over night runs to 6z runs is a matter of an inch. This was never anything more than a 1-3” light event. No need to go into panic mode if models show a little less at 6z cause we all know at 12z it will whiff the other way. 

Ok, but none of that answered why 100 miles south of here its fully plausible for a fast pattern to produce 2-4” of snow but here in the nyc metro area we shouldnt expect that. Comparing differences in model runs is one thing, claiming that we shouldnt expect an outcome because of a certain background state while ignoring that the model being spoken about simply shifted that axis of snow south, is a completely different argument. If it can be proven scientifically that a fast progressive flow can produce advisory level snows south of here but not here, then lets get that going. Id love to learn. 

[qg_omega]

53 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Overnight trends were discouraging, hopefully the 12Z runs are a bit better but for now the only model that improved is the 6Z Euro. 

I will be shocked if DC doesn’t do well, pattern always favored DC area for this one