Minor snow possible sunday 12/14/25

[MJO812]

Gfs is still in its own  world. Even the AI gfs is with the other models.

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

Central Park record may still stand which is incredible given literally all other areas have had a 4 inch snowfall in that time frame lol.

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Central Park record may still stand which is incredible given literally all other areas have had a 4 inch snowfall in that time frame lol.

I live in the UWS and there were a few events which I measured at or above 4 inches in the past several years. They just don't know how to measure.

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro and Euro give NYC 2-4 inches. Nice little bump up.

Last minute amplified trends that usually screw us could work in our favor 

[EastonSN+]

Clippers are obviously no longer "extinct" lol.

Where I live in coastal Connecticut clippers generally disappointed. Hopefully this one produces.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Has there been a comparable period for this feature, for this long a period in our observable past?

The velocity of the Pacific Jet since 18-19 has been the strongest sustained period on record.

[NEG NAO]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Central Park record may still stand which is incredible given literally all other areas have had a 4 inch snowfall in that time frame lol.

LGA is in the same boat.

1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

I live in the UWS and there were a few events which I measured at or above 4 inches in the past several years. They just don't know how to measure.

We are talking about daily measurements and not storm totals spanning multiple days.

50 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Clippers are obviously no longer "extinct" lol.

Where I live in coastal Connecticut clippers generally disappointed. Hopefully this one produces.

No one said that they were. Just that we don’t get as much snow from them than we used to.

[jm1220]

Like I said a couple days ago, if this covers the grass completely and makes it look outside like it feels, I'd consider that a big win. Hopefully we can get a bit more like 3-5" but this is a very fast moving system that's getting squashed SE, so it can't really amp in time and the fast flow is pushing it east. The squashed like a bug models can still verify where we get little or maybe an inch or two because this is still overall a hostile pattern for snow. We'll have to see at 12z if the more amped models have a clue or it gets squashed like a bug. 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Central Park record may still stand which is incredible given literally all other areas have had a 4 inch snowfall in that time frame lol.

Yeah, that one is absolutely ridiculous because they were two instances in February 2024 we’re almost every single surrounding place recorded at least 4 inches of snow, including JFK, which received around 8 inches of snow in that surprise snow band that’s set up in mid February 2024. However, the snowstorm that was earlier that month had all places around Central Park receiving at least 5 inches of snow and somehow Central Park just below 4 inches. Even last year around the MLK day snow event, all other recording sites and most areas nearby were able to just reach 4 inches if I’m not mistaken. Somehow Central Park always comes up short

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah, that one is absolutely ridiculous because they were two instances in February 2024 we’re almost every single surrounding place recorded at least 4 inches of snow, including JFK, which received around 8 inches of snow in that surprise snow band that’s set up in mid February 2024. However, the snowstorm that was earlier that month had all places around Central Park receiving at least 5 inches of snow and somehow Central Park just below 4 inches. Even last year around the MLK day snow event, all other recording sites and most areas nearby were able to just reach 4 inches if I’m not mistaken. Somehow Central Park always comes up short

The heaviest with that event went just south of the NYC to LGA corridor so the lack of a 4” daily measurement in those locations made sense since it was such a narrow band.

 

[NEG NAO]

[NittanyWx]

I like the depth of the DGZ with this one.  A little liquid goes a long way.  Great test case for AI modeling here with the more amped and juicier solution and a notable difference in trough tilt.  I think this is a measurable one for the coast at least.

This vort here is holding the keys to the difference in more neutralish rough tilt vs more positive.

 

I don't know the answer yet on whether AI is better poised to be the better predictor vs NWP on trough axis tilt and whether this is a use case where it has skill.  I do know the Euro is further north than the GFS at 48 hours, has a less positive tilt and if I'd have to guess in most cases the trend in recent years is north late.

 

I wouldn't necessarily dismiss plowable fluff at this stage for the coast...

 

The confluence near us is the counterargument to that.

[BoulderWX]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Looks very reasonable - the rest is just noise! 

[mob1]

Overnight trends were discouraging, hopefully the 12Z runs are a bit better but for now the only model that improved is the 6Z Euro.