Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[MAG5035]

Nice to see the snow hole the central counties shrink some with the more robust than expected snow shield developing back further last night. Unfortunately I was only the recipient of a light coating, or heavy dusting (whichever sounds better) with the 1-2” plus snows either falling a few miles away up on the Allegheny ridge to the west or the next county over to the east. So bit of a bummer. 

With that said, screw it I’m going all in on next weekend. For the first time this winter the southern stream looks involved with a shortwave coming out with Gulf moisture to tap and there appears to be plenty of cold air and decent high to attack. This has the look of a widespread and significant winter weather maker for a big chunk of the country. Whether that’s here or south/north of here is going to be the debate this week as models are changeable as per usual. 12z GFS buries this in the Deep South, Euro not quite as suppressed but still a C-PA miss to the south after the previous 0z run had the mix line in southern PA. Ensembles showed variability with some hits in the mix. Both 12z GFS and Euro AI’s are big hits that are backed up with their AI ensembles. So we’ll see, we’re way overdue for an actual big precip maker. 

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Nice to see the snow hole the central counties shrink some with the more robust than expected snow shield developing back further last night. Unfortunately I was only the recipient of a light coating, or heavy dusting (whichever sounds better) with the 1-2” plus snows either falling a few miles away up on the Allegheny ridge to the west or the next county over to the east. So bit of a bummer. 

With that said, screw it I’m going all in on next weekend. For the first time this winter the southern stream looks involved with a shortwave coming out with Gulf moisture to tap and there appears to be plenty of cold air and decent high to attack. This has the look of a widespread and significant winter weather maker for a big chunk of the country. Whether that’s here or south/north of here is going to be the debate this week as models are changeable as per usual. 12z GFS buries this in the Deep South, Euro not quite as suppressed but still a C-PA miss to the south after the previous 0z run had the mix line in southern PA. Ensembles showed variability with some hits in the mix. Both 12z GFS and Euro AI’s are big hits that are backed up with their AI ensembles. So we’ll see, we’re way overdue for an actual big precip maker. 

Oh man.  
 

Giddy up! 

[canderson]

When is the last time Harrisburg had a 6”+ snowstorm? Feels like it’s been a few years. 
 

@Jns2183

[AccuChris]

Nice to see the snow hole the central counties shrink some with the more robust than expected snow shield developing back further last night. Unfortunately I was only the recipient of a light coating, or heavy dusting (whichever sounds better) with the 1-2” plus snows either falling a few miles away up on the Allegheny ridge to the west or the next county over to the east. So bit of a bummer. 
With that said, screw it I’m going all in on next weekend. For the first time this winter the southern stream looks involved with a shortwave coming out with Gulf moisture to tap and there appears to be plenty of cold air and decent high to attack. This has the look of a widespread and significant winter weather maker for a big chunk of the country. Whether that’s here or south/north of here is going to be the debate this week as models are changeable as per usual. 12z GFS buries this in the Deep South, Euro not quite as suppressed but still a C-PA miss to the south after the previous 0z run had the mix line in southern PA. Ensembles showed variability with some hits in the mix. Both 12z GFS and Euro AI’s are big hits that are backed up with their AI ensembles. So we’ll see, we’re way overdue for an actual big precip maker. 

To your point, below are the GFS, Euro, Canadian Ensemble snowfall through the period, and the AI Euro Ensemble snow and the total QPF for the AI GEFS (no snowmap available for this product). All very much in line for much below normal temp and plenty of QPF/snow







.

[Blizzard of 93]

27 minutes ago, canderson said:

When is the last time Harrisburg had a 6”+ snowstorm? Feels like it’s been a few years. 
 

@Jns2183

2021 we had a memorable storm drop around 12 inches at MDT I believe from 1/31 into 2/1.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I can’t remember what part of FL that @Itstrainingtime was going to this time, but how cool would it be if he was there to see it.

 

6 hours ago, canderson said:

@Itstrainingtime gonna see more thundersnow in Florida than at home 

 

6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, he is a snow magnet!

Maytown did well this weekend with both events. I think yesterday am he had almost 3 inches before he departed.

 

6 hours ago, canderson said:

Yea he did very well yesterday. Kicked my butt for sure 

Hey! I'm in Jacksonville today and will be road tripping the entire east coast over the next 2 weeks. It's a chilly 48 here currently with a freeze warning up the next 2 nights clear down to south of Orlando. No snow here but a crap ton of rain earlier. Front has passed, winds are out of the NW and really cranking. Wind chills tonight in the mid teens. Loving it!

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Down to 46 actually and dropping quickly.

[Voyager]

27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

 

 

Hey! I'm in Jacksonville today and will be road tripping the entire east coast over the next 2 weeks. It's a chilly 48 here currently with a freeze warning up the next 2 nights clear down to south of Orlando. No snow here but a crap ton of rain earlier. Front has passed, winds are out of the NW and really cranking. Wind chills tonight in the mid teens. Loving it!

 

No offense, but if I went to Florida and found myself in a major cold snap, I'd be pretty pissed...

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

2021 we had a memorable storm drop around 12 inches at MDT I believe from 1/31 into 2/1.

i dont care to remember that one my mom and sis both passed within a week. both had covid but some questionable decisions from the dr's and staff they both passed 

[anotherman]

Light snow here.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

2021 we had a memorable storm drop around 12 inches at MDT I believe from 1/31 into 2/1.

Oh I remember that storm well. But couldn’t recall any recent. That’s crazy it’s been so long.  

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

No offense, but if I went to Florida and found myself in a major cold snap, I'd be pretty pissed...

I'll have plenty of warm weather later on. It doesn't stay cold for long here and it's obviously not as cold farther south. Should be upper 70s at least in Miami when I arrive on Wednesday.