Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[ChescoWx]

Some light snow has crossed the area this morning with mainly a coating here in NW Chester County to some reports of a 1/4 inch across southern Chesco. We warm up nicely today to near normal in the low to mid 40's which should help melt some of our snowpack that has now reached 40 straight days with at least an inch of snow on the ground. This is the 9th longest stretch since 1894. Another shot at some light snow tomorrow evening. A little cooler on Friday before our warmest day of the year looks possible on Saturday with temps in the low 50's. We turn colder Sunday and there will be some potential for yet another winter storm early next week but way too early to nail down specifics.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No dusting or evidence of any flakes here last night either.

The Old line “Never count on a Clipper” rings true again.

Yeah, it started to go poof on some mesos yesterday, and while I expected (and got) zero flakes down here, I was hoping for the 1-3" at the cabin for what might be the last hurrah for snowmobiling.  I may head up anyway, or i have an invite to Brantingham NY where snow is a plenty right now.  

Only good about modeled clippers, is that they never stop inspiring false hope for a snow weenie like me, cause every once in a while they make it SE of the mountains.  

Monday looks nice as currently modeled.  Would be a nice end (unless the improving tellies/ssw) materializes later in March.  I'd be just fine w/ it either way.  

Seeing snow covered landscapes on way into office today, was just another win for this snowhound.

[pawatch]

Picked 3/8” of snow, my lane is covered and had to blow the snow off the cars with my leaf blower.

[Jns2183]

Awesome. Thank.you for looking that up. I'm not sure how deep you went, but it sounds like this spring falls pretty short on 1960 analogs. I'm hoping to get back to work in the next ten to fourteen days, so 1960 doesn't sound that attractive anyways. 

I've been building myself a little personal weather history database. I have for KMDT and KCXY every hourly reading for in the NCEI database. They have missing hours, obviously as you go back in time, but combined I pretty much have at least a temperature reading hourly going back to the 1930's. I also have complete daily records for York and Lancaster and a lot of co-op that have come and went over the years. There really wasn't explosion of them around World war II. Soon as I decide about storage and server setup I'm going to see about attaining all 5 minute asos automated sensor readings. But at that point it's GB of data and doesn't really move the needle too much on what I'm doing. I was also starting to look more into soil temperature records and hydro automatic creek sensors for nailing down preceiptitation which is a big interest.

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[Jns2183]

I’ve mentioned it somewhere in one of these threads in the past. I don’t believe that event dumped anywhere near that much snow in Harrisburg though. The NOAA NOWdata at Harrisburg/Middletown for those two days has over 3” of precip but only 2.4” of snow. 
It did dump those kinds of amounts back this way and on down the Apps thru WV and KY though. The local station here had something on it a few years ago. 
https://www.wtaj.com/weather/the-late-april-snowstorm-of-1928/

 

1919 103"
1924 74
1925 70
1926 90.75
1927 67
1928 81.75

I believe those were the snowfall readings from a place called horseshoe crab in Altoona. They want very many stations back in the day. And Altoona area as a super wide variance it's snowfalls depending upon location with elevation and lake enhancement. Trying to get a handle on that area's actual snowfall through the years was a nightmare because of that. So much of that years mean was dependent upon what station was reporting in where the stations were.

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

GFS still wanting to bring some snow Thursday, although not sure how much it would matter with a middle of the day event and marginal temps, to say nothing of the lack of other model support ha.  However, it's still showing the Monday storm, albeit a bit weaker this time (probably more realistic), and temps do not appear to be an issue whatsoever in that one. 

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS still wanting to bring some snow Thursday, although not sure how much it would matter with a middle of the day event and marginal temps, to say nothing of the lack of other model support ha.  However, it's still showing the Monday storm, albeit a bit weaker this time (probably more realistic), and temps do not appear to be an issue whatsoever in that one. 

GFS has been moving south on every run over the past 2 days with Monday's system. That trend needs to stop. As is, warning level snows are confined to south of the turnpike. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS has been moving south on every run over the past 2 days with Monday's system. That trend needs to stop. As is, warning level snows are confined to south of the turnpike. 

Yep, had me wondering if we have to worry about too much of a cold press.  I'll take my chances being on that side of things though, being an early March event and all.

[MAG5035]

I had a light coating first thing this morning but that is long gone as well as some of other snow that is on the ground.

Despite getting the first double digit storm in 5 years and the prolonged cold and pack, I’d probably rate my winter a C if not much else happened next month. The only other snowfall that even got to the 3” mark this winter here was all the way back on Dec 2nd. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I had a light coating first thing this morning but that is long gone as well as some of other snow that is on the ground.

Despite getting the first double digit storm in 5 years and the prolonged cold and pack, I’d probably rate my winter a C if not much else happened next month. The only other snowfall that even got to the 3” mark this winter here was all the way back on Dec 2nd. 

 

Yes sir. If no more snow fell here, I'd grade this winter as a B. Just can't give it more than that when finishing below normal snowfall. Temp grades out at an A, snow cover grades an A, but total snowfall right now is a C-. That averages out to a solid B. One more significant (4"+) snow moves me up to a B+ and anything over 6" probably moves this to at least an A-. 

Now...comparing the reality of this winter vs expectations going in? It's already easily an A. No way did I foresee weeks of continuous snow cover this year. 

[Jns2183]

Here are station reading that Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

Most snow fell on Saturday. By Sunday it was up near 60 if not above. Absolutely bonkers storm that dropped a ton of preceiptitation. I wish I had the low track and pressure readings for that bomb.

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[Ruin]

got to love the virga show on radar last night go out today under mostly cloudy skies and its almost 50? didnt think it would be that warm today 

[Jsauss]

55 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Here are station reading that Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

Most snow fell on Saturday. By Sunday it was up near 60 if not above. Absolutely bonkers storm that dropped a ton of preceiptitation. I wish I had the low track and pressure readings for that bomb.

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@candersonremembers this well. he did his freshman thesis on this storm.  

[canderson]

13 minutes ago, Jsauss said:

@candersonremembers this well. he did his freshman thesis on this storm.  

Hey now! I’m quite a years younger than a lot of you! 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes sir. If no more snow fell here, I'd grade this winter as a B. Just can't give it more than that when finishing below normal snowfall. Temp grades out at an A, snow cover grades an A, but total snowfall right now is a C-. That averages out to a solid B. One more significant (4"+) snow moves me up to a B+ and anything over 6" probably moves this to at least an A-. 

Now...comparing the reality of this winter vs expectations going in? It's already easily an A. No way did I foresee weeks of continuous snow cover this year. 

I'll tell ya what, we're getting pretty close to normal though.  I'm at 22.1" for the season.  MU's historical seasonal average snowfall is 26.6", 24.7" if we use median instead of mean, which I actually prefer in this instance because it's a right-skewed distribution.  Harrisburg's POR mean is 32.4" and I think more recently is a shade under 30".  I love that you are almost exactly equidistance between the two sites, makes for some interesting comparisons. 

A couple other random stations near us.......The Lancaster Filter Plant has only more recent data but is missing some years and they average 19.9".  There's a Landisville station that has quite an extensive POR going back to the 50's but is missing a lot of recent years that averages 25.7".  There's also a York Haven site across the river from you that has a terribly incomplete set of data but averages 27.7 FWIW.  Sorry for throwing a bunch of useless info at you haha. 

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I'll tell ya what, we're getting pretty close to normal though.  I'm at 22.1" for the season.  MU's historical seasonal average snowfall is 26.6", 24.7" if we use median instead of mean, which I actually prefer in this instance because it's a right-skewed distribution.  Harrisburg's POR mean is 32.4" and I think more recently is a shade under 30".  I love that you are almost exactly equidistance between the two sites, makes for some interesting comparisons. 

A couple other random stations near us.......The Lancaster Filter Plant has only more recent data but is missing some years and they average 19.9".  There's a Landisville station that has quite an extensive POR going back to the 50's but is missing a lot of recent years that averages 25.7".  There's also a York Haven site across the river from you that has a terribly incomplete set of data but averages 27.7 FWIW.  Sorry for throwing a bunch of useless info at you haha. 

I wasn't sure if I should laugh or thank you for this so I did neither.  

You know, I'm guilty of assuming our average is a bit higher than those numbers. In my head I consider average around 30" because i think that's what it used to be. I've got incomplete data this winter due to me being in Florida in January - what did you record for your total for that event? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I wasn't sure if I should laugh or thank you for this so I did neither.  

You know, I'm guilty of assuming our average is a bit higher than those numbers. In my head I consider average around 30" because i think that's what it used to be. I've got incomplete data this winter due to me being in Florida in January - what did you record for your total for that event? 

I've always kind of thought 25-30" as a good approximation for our average, which seems about right.  See below for all my January data (not sure how great this will come through).

Date	Prec. Type	Water	Snow
6-Jan	Rain	0.01
9-Jan	Rain	0.05
10-Jan	Rain	0.45
11-Jan	Snow	0.01
14-Jan	Rain	0.05
17-Jan	Snow	0.17	2.2
18-Jan	Snow	0.21	2.5
24-Jan	Snow	0.33	3.7
25-Jan	Snow/Sleet	1.25	5.1
26-Jan	Snow	0.01

[Itstrainingtime]

20 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I've always kind of thought 25-30" as a good approximation for our average, which seems about right.  See below for all my January data (not sure how great this will come through).

Date	Prec. Type	Water	Snow
6-Jan	Rain	0.01
9-Jan	Rain	0.05
10-Jan	Rain	0.45
11-Jan	Snow	0.01
14-Jan	Rain	0.05
17-Jan	Snow	0.17	2.2
18-Jan	Snow	0.21	2.5
24-Jan	Snow	0.33	3.7
25-Jan	Snow/Sleet	1.25	5.1
26-Jan	Snow	0.01

8.8" for the "main event" - that's what I was looking for, thank you! Based on everything that I was reading while I was away I went with 8" for the storm. Assuming that I might have done a wee bit better I might adjust up to 9". 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I'll tell ya what, we're getting pretty close to normal though.  I'm at 22.1" for the season.  MU's historical seasonal average snowfall is 26.6", 24.7" if we use median instead of mean, which I actually prefer in this instance because it's a right-skewed distribution.  Harrisburg's POR mean is 32.4" and I think more recently is a shade under 30".  I love that you are almost exactly equidistance between the two sites, makes for some interesting comparisons. 

A couple other random stations near us.......The Lancaster Filter Plant has only more recent data but is missing some years and they average 19.9".  There's a Landisville station that has quite an extensive POR going back to the 50's but is missing a lot of recent years that averages 25.7".  There's also a York Haven site across the river from you that has a terribly incomplete set of data but averages 27.7 FWIW.  Sorry for throwing a bunch of useless info at you haha. 

This chart shows how unlucky we have been

 

 

[MAG5035]

4 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

1919 103"
1924 74
1925 70
1926 90.75
1927 67
1928 81.75

I believe those were the snowfall readings from a place called horseshoe crab in Altoona. They want very many stations back in the day. And Altoona area as a super wide variance it's snowfalls depending upon location with elevation and lake enhancement. Trying to get a handle on that area's actual snowfall through the years was a nightmare because of that. So much of that years mean was dependent upon what station was reporting in where the stations were.

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Probably the Horseshoe Curve, which would make sense given such high seasonal totals and also being that timeframe was Altoona’s Pennsylvania RR heyday where a lot of that kind of reporting was likely done along the mainline. That’s close to halfway up the Allegheny Front (leading ridge of the Laurels)  between the city itself and the top at Gallitzin/Cresson. 

It’s hard to find much reliable data for the city itself. KAOO is more than 15 miles and one ridgeline over SE of the city. The airport doesn’t get as much snow, esp in upslope/LES and clipper situations being just that much further away from the Laurels with downsloping. Then of course, the really high variance from the city to the top of the Laurels in just a 5-10 mile drive. 

I consider roughly 40-50” an average season here, using the much more reliable snow data up in State College as a general baseline (45.9 since 1893 and 43.8 on the 1991-2020 avg). It’s not perfect but I am averaging 35.7” since the 17-18 winter with some pretty lousy winters the last 4 years. On the other hand, what will be the new 30 year avg (2001-2030) is currently running around 38” a season for State College right now barring some big winters the next 4 years.