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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

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Ridge axis over Idaho Hudson Bay high 50/50 low in ideal position Decent high latitude blocking Sub-trop disturbance Game on. .

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

You can actually see the snow starting to lay just a few hundred feet up. 

20260222_062925.jpg

It's cool when you can see the snow line like that. Here in Tamaqua, I sit at 825' at the house, but the surrounding "mountains" sit at 1,200 to 1,500 feet. Sometimes, in marginal events, I'll have little if any accumulation, and the mountain tops (especially the trees) will be covered in snow. It's almost like out west when the valleys, like the Phoenix metro area, are warm, and the distant mountains are snow capped.

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Yardstickgozinya

Yardstickgozinya

Posted
Posted

 

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It's cool when you can see the snow line like that. Here in Tamaqua, I sit at 825' at the house, but the surrounding "mountains" sit at 1,200 to 1,500 feet. Sometimes, in marginal events, I'll have little if any accumulation, and the mountain tops (especially the trees) will be covered in snow. It's almost like out west when the valleys, like the Phoenix metro area, are warm, and the distant mountains are snow capped.

I just had a view back towards some higher elevation and I can definitely tell it's been snowing a little longer up there. It's been snowing rather light here for the last half hour b,ut we're still getting  coverage without much of a problem. 

I know some of you fellows like your wine. This place is basically in my backyard.It's where my son and I cut down a lot of our christmas trees. Back in 09 when my son was still a child he got to experience cutting down a tree in an epic snow snow and drag it home on a sled with me.  He's not as fond of snow as his old man, but it's definitely a fond memory of his.

20260222_064803.jpg

20260222_064959.jpg

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Mshaffer526

Mshaffer526

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Sure wish this forum would wake up a bit. The Philly and NYC forums are quite active, and as such I'm having to go to them for analysis, obs, and general commentary.

Latte is brewed, reporting for duty. 

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Sure wish this forum would wake up a bit. The Philly and NYC forums are quite active, and as such I'm having to go to them for analysis, obs, and general commentary.

The forum would surely wake up when you start talking about 90 degree heat and 77 degree dewpoints and aa heat index of 115.

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

The forum would surely wake up when you start talking about 90 degree heat and 77 degree dewpoints and aa heat index of 115.

It would wake up for sure. It's quite possible my wife would be planning my funeral as well... :lol:

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LATE SEASON WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT OUR AREA !!!
**ANY CHANGES IN TRACK WILL AFFECT TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY.
**WE WONT KNOW THIS UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE COASTAL LOW FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
Just a few REMINDERS! @8 AM
Blizzard Warning For PHILLY AREA was added overnight!
Keep in mind these few key points…..
1. Precipitation will start this morning for many as light Rain or Rain/Snow. THIS IS AND WAS EXPECTED!
2. STORM will not be very impressive until LATE afternoon or evening around 3-6 PM. Once the sun goes down the coastal storm will gets its act together and rapidly strengthen. This will allow precipitation to get thrown our way from the ocean and that’s when accumulating SNOW will begin to pile up. Best time for accumulation snow to fall will be OVERNIGHT tonight into Monday.
3. **REMEMBER** A slight change in track can make BIG changes in totals.
A more WEST track would give us higher snow totals AND a track even SLIGHTLY EAST would LOWER totals.
LET THE EVENT PLAY OUT!!
***This storm will take time to get organized and cranking. Be patient and LET THINGS PLAY OUT! It will be SLOW GOING until AFTER SUNSET.
We are watching and waiting!
A STORM THIS SIZE DOES WHAT IT WANTS!
Stay Tuned! we Will update throughout the day!!!! (AS NECESSARY)
Please consider donating to our Coffee And Food Fund! We are Exhausted but we will keep going and keep you SAFE!
We truly appreciate your support!
Please Copy And Paste Our Name to avoid copy cat accounts!
Venmo: @ssstormchasingllc
CashApp: $SSSTORMTEAM
GOD BLESS AND STAY TUNED
Enjoy The EARLY MORNING SHORT RANGE SHREF MODEL!
#TeamSS-LLC-2026
May be an image of map, arctic and text
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Storm Clouds

Storm Clouds

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LATE SEASON WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT OUR AREA !!!
**ANY CHANGES IN TRACK WILL AFFECT TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY.
**WE WONT KNOW THIS UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE COASTAL LOW FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
Just a few REMINDERS! @8 AM
Blizzard Warning For PHILLY AREA was added overnight!
Keep in mind these few key points…..
1. Precipitation will start this morning for many as light Rain or Rain/Snow. THIS IS AND WAS EXPECTED!
2. STORM will not be very impressive until LATE afternoon or evening around 3-6 PM. Once the sun goes down the coastal storm will gets its act together and rapidly strengthen. This will allow precipitation to get thrown our way from the ocean and that’s when accumulating SNOW will begin to pile up. Best time for accumulation snow to fall will be OVERNIGHT tonight into Monday.
3. **REMEMBER** A slight change in track can make BIG changes in totals.
A more WEST track would give us higher snow totals AND a track even SLIGHTLY EAST would LOWER totals.
LET THE EVENT PLAY OUT!!
***This storm will take time to get organized and cranking. Be patient and LET THINGS PLAY OUT! It will be SLOW GOING until AFTER SUNSET.
We are watching and waiting!
A STORM THIS SIZE DOES WHAT IT WANTS!
Stay Tuned! we Will update throughout the day!!!! (AS NECESSARY)
Please consider donating to our Coffee And Food Fund! We are Exhausted but we will keep going and keep you SAFE!
We truly appreciate your support!
Please Copy And Paste Our Name to avoid copy cat accounts!
Venmo: @ssstormchasingllc
CashApp: $SSSTORMTEAM
GOD BLESS AND STAY TUNED
Enjoy The EARLY MORNING SHORT RANGE SHREF MODEL!
#TeamSS-LLC-2026
May be an image of map, arctic and text

SMH idiots…why are they using a SERF mean snow map? Probably because it shows the most snow…

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

The forum would surely wake up when you start talking about 90 degree heat and 77 degree dewpoints and aa heat index of 115.

I know I shouldn't do this, but, Friday's forecast at my mom's old house in Sun City... :yikes:

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Latest HRRR was…not great. Lots of rain/snow mix today and then the coastal western edge was limited to far eastern PA counties and eastwarde6525ce72cf0a7b931f6066fe65ad274.jpg


.

That's a painful map and not surprising honestly. Glad I rode my 3-6" call. Hope that isn't too high.

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted 
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heavy snowfall is expected today into Monday
over practically all of the Southeast half of Pennsylvania.

Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure
rapidly developing off the east coast today as a very dynamic upper
trough digs southeast from the Great Lakes region and amplifies
across the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic Coast. The
latest 00z Sunday guidance continues to come into good agreement
on the position and strength of the coastal low as it
strengthens/bombs out as its heads from the Outer Banks late
this morning NNE to about 125NM east of KSBY this evening.

GEFS Ensemble Plumes and their respective anomalies of various
parameters show a well-defined inverted trough over Central PA
today, extending NWWD from the aforementieond coastal low.

This trough is at the western edge of a highly anomalous East
to NErly LLJ (falling into the minus 4-5 sigma u-component of
the wind at 925 and 850 mb). Increasing upper level diffluence
ahead of the digging upper trough will support gradual
enhancement of snowfall rates across all of Central PA today
with snowfall rates within these quasi north/south bands of snow
exceeding 1 inch per hour (possibly over 2 inches at times in
heavy CSI bands across our far eastern CWA.

A complicating feature that will enhance and extend significant
impacts from this storm will be the increasingly strong NNE to
NNW wind - that will gust over 30 mph tonight (and likely over
40 mph) on Monday. This will lead to significant/extensive
blowing and drifting snow with localized near whiteout
conditions possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A high degree of uncertainty remains with
expected snowfall over the rest of northern PA.

Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over
the rest of North-Central, NW PA and the Middle Susq Valley
considering the likelihood for a quasi-stationary nearly
north/south band of heavy snow (lasting several hours or more)
along the axis of an inverted llvl trough and leading edge of
the lower/deeper DGZ that will be situated from the Scent Mtns
to somewhere between KUNV/KSEG and KIPT later Sunday
afternoon/Sunday night.

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall
forecast:
* As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of
  enhanced low to mid level frontogenesis and UVVEL to develop
  in the western periphery of the system. Much of this banding
  will likely set up just  east of the CWA, but could still
  develop across parts of our central and eastern zones.
* Multiple models continue to show a snow band associated with
  an area of low level convergence within an inverted trough
  extending northwestward from the coastal low. While this type
  of band is more likely to set up somewhere in central PA, it
  will likely be narrow with a widely varying snowfall totals
  on either side of the band.
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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

If it keeps snowing like it is now till tomorrow morning, we won't have anything to worry about. Seems where i'm located at I might be in the screw zone. Even though I'm technically in the WSW.

I'm getting that nagging feeling myself for Tamaqua.

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's a painful map and not surprising honestly. Glad I rode my 3-6" call. Hope that isn't too high.

Yup. Seeing the short rangers retreating east definitely gives me pause for concern here in my backyard as well.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Voyager said:

As per usual, current radar shows a big dryslot over the Skook. It'll eventually fill in, but I've seen it enough times to have it irritate me a bit.

Im in it as well.  Starting to fill.  Gonna start soon

USA USA USA!!

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted

Low of 34, currently 36 with light rain.  I took the inner cylinder out of the gauge in anticipation of this event so can't tell how much but no more than a couple hundredths.  Not loving what I'm seeing perusing various models this morning.  A worst-case scenario would be the coastal keeps ticking east leaving us outside of its primary bands and the trough sets up in more of a State College to South Mountain type corridor so we miss that as well.  Stuck in the middle with you.  Hope not but it's looking like a distinct possibility at this point, perhaps even the most likely.  Despite all that, CTP's map keeps improving.  I'll be here either way ha.

mapgen.php?office=CTP&summary=true&pointpreferences=CTP&ptype=prob_sn&product=expected&2026022213

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