Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

Years ago I feel like my weather obsession with Horst is what got a lot of you following MU. Whether you wanted to or not. Obsession with MU officially over.

Riddle me this...how does he go over 48 hours in the 3 days leading up to this storm and not say one word about it? The only thing he mentioned all day yesterday was a frontal passage. It wasn't until late this afternoon that he fired up his storm thoughts. 

I don't want to be unfair, he might have a lot of other responsibilities right now, but that just doesn't seem right. I've been sharing and posting to work and family from the f'ing ocean. Do better, MU.

[WmsptWx]

I'm taking my motorcycle out for a ride at 10 PM on Sunday, Shapiro can fight me lol.

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Ruin said:

It is but if they do see you driving i doubt they stop you.

They kno not everyone will adhere, but if your in a Prius and not legit 4 wheel drive, it’s your hint to stay home. 

[pasnownut]

34 minutes ago, canderson said:

Feeling confident still for my 12.4” MDT call 

It’s looking good right now imo. Still think a little upside possible.

[Superstorm]

Years ago I feel like my weather obsession with Horst is what got a lot of you following MU. Whether you wanted to or not. Obsession with MU officially over.
Riddle me this...how does he go over 48 hours in the 3 days leading up to this storm and not say one word about it? The only thing he mentioned all day yesterday was a frontal passage. It wasn't until late this afternoon that he fired up his storm thoughts. 
I don't want to be unfair, he might have a lot of other responsibilities right now, but that just doesn't seem right. I've been sharing and posting to work and family from the f'ing ocean. Do better, MU.

Soon as Horst posted I stopped listening to MU.


.

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I'm taking my motorcycle out for a ride at 10 PM on Sunday, Shapiro can fight me lol.

Don’t tempt me - I havE some pull there lol

[canderson]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Years ago I feel like my weather obsession with Horst is what got a lot of you following MU. Whether you wanted to or not. Obsession with MU officially over.

Riddle me this...how does he go over 48 hours in the 3 days leading up to this storm and not say one word about it? The only thing he mentioned all day yesterday was a frontal passage. It wasn't until late this afternoon that he fired up his storm thoughts. 

I don't want to be unfair, he might have a lot of other responsibilities right now, but that just doesn't seem right. I've been sharing and posting to work and family from the f'ing ocean. Do better, MU.

Is he a young guy somewhat fresh out of school? He seems to be quite defensive and “online persona evocative” and not acting like he is speaking on behalf of others. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Soon as Horst posted I stopped listening to MU.


.

As little as Eric has posted the past few years you almost wonder if he got a lot of requests to post his thoughts in the absence of the new guy.

[Voyager]

27 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

That’s only through 5 PM Sunday 

Oops. My bad.

[Ruin]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Years ago I feel like my weather obsession with Horst is what got a lot of you following MU. Whether you wanted to or not. Obsession with MU officially over.

Riddle me this...how does he go over 48 hours in the 3 days leading up to this storm and not say one word about it? The only thing he mentioned all day yesterday was a frontal passage. It wasn't until late this afternoon that he fired up his storm thoughts. 

I don't want to be unfair, he might have a lot of other responsibilities right now, but that just doesn't seem right. I've been sharing and posting to work and family from the f'ing ocean. Do better, MU.

Who is this mu you speak of

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

Who is this mu you speak of

Kyle Elliott, director of Met at Millersville University. A couple of years ago he replaced who I feel was/is the most accurate met the LSV has probably ever had.

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Oops. My bad.

Here is the full 18z Euro for this storm.

All of CTP still crushed.

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I'm taking my motorcycle out for a ride at 10 PM on Sunday, Shapiro can fight me lol.

In state of emergency I can take my sleds on roads legally. Last time it happened I offered cops my assistance and gave number if they needed quick access. 

[Voyager]

Just looked at my forecast. CTP has sleet mixing possible Sunday afternoon, and even included freezing rain/sleet combo mix for Sunday night.

I thought I was safe up here...

[Superstorm]

Just looked at my forecast. CTP has sleet mixing possible Sunday afternoon, and even included freezing rain/sleet combo mix for Sunday night.
I thought I was safe up here...

Scared of that NAM.


.

[Voyager]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Scared of that NAM.

Hopefully it's wrong. Don't need that extra weight in the pack. I'm a one man shoveling show since my wife is handicapped, my mother in-law is elderly, and my father in-law is passed. I have two properties to clear, and three cars.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Great write up about the storm here. Basically goes into detail about why even though the potential exists for this to be an all time snowstorm it's probably not going to get as close to that mark as some thought. Regardless of that we should still have a big snowstorm to enjoy finally after years. South Central PA has gotten screwed so much the past 6 years it's unreal.

https://x.com/HurricaneAddict/status/2014852201026584815

[Ruin]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Kyle Elliott, director of Met at Millersville University. A couple of years ago he replaced who I feel was/is the most accurate met the LSV has probably ever had.

I remember that name 

[Ruin]

8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Just looked at my forecast. CTP has sleet mixing possible Sunday afternoon, and even included freezing rain/sleet combo mix for Sunday night.

I thought I was safe up here...

Not buying it

[Lucy Pull]

NAM is good at sniffing out those warm layers but it’s hard to take its thermals serious when it’s jumping so much. 6z north, 12z south, 18z north. Any bets on 0z?

[Mount Joy Snowman]

HRRR thru 36 has thermals a wee bit warmer and sleet line a skosh north of 18z.

[Caveman]

Everyone here shares a desire to better understand the weather and climate in and around central Pennsylvania. We all have our own biases, but at the core, we want to learn from one another and exchange perspectives on the current state of the atmosphere and the parameters that go into predicting sensible weather.

Few of us are true modelers, yet we all try to interpret the models and, at times, extrapolate beyond them. What binds us together is a genuine love of weather—and, admittedly, the extremes the atmosphere can deliver.

Whether it’s Kyle or Eric is ultimately irrelevant. I was fortunate to be around many “heavy hitters” at PSU in their heyday at Walker, and it all reinforces the same point: we love the weather and strive to better understand the outcomes, whether they turn out to be a boom or a bust.

Over the past several days, many of us have had our emails and messages light up with requests for our thoughts. That’s a compliment to this community and a sign of the respect people have for the collective knowledge here—especially regarding the nuances of our fickle atmosphere in the LSV.

So with that said, whether it’s Eric, Kyle, Ryan, Joe, DT, or Dr. Greg, we’ve all learned from those who have dedicated their lives to understanding sensible weather. Let’s appreciate all of them, appreciate the meteorology of the impending event(s), and remember both the booms and the busts we’ve seen—and will continue to experience in the future.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

NAM is good at sniffing out those warm layers but it’s hard to take its thermals serious when it’s jumping so much. 6z north, 12z south, 18z north. Any bets on 0z?

I think cad will at some point tick SN/Ip line a bit further SE but it may not be till after it adjusts a tick (or2) further NW

really hope further WAA intrusion is stopped at 0z or 6z

[Yardstickgozinya]

Hopefully @Eskimo Joe  post about the warm layer, he just made a few minutes ago over in the MA verifies all through the mid atlantic and northeast. 

[AMDEW80]

Dropped below 0 earlier than expected here tonight.  Temp has been dropping this afternoon/evening quickly!

 

 

exciting to finally have a nice storm to track.  Best of luck to everyone, the tracking finale tomorrow into a snowy Sunday funday sounds like a great weekend! Enjoy! 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

HRRR at 1pm Sun has primary a bit stronger with sleet line a smidge north of 18z, hitting PA/MD line, snow at 7-9" at that point.  Let's see how she finishes.

[canderson]

Down to 17. And winds blowing 38 mph still. 

[AccuChris]

Long range HRRR looks pretty solid at the end if its run



.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Sleet battle in York/Lanc all through the mid afternoon hours, then somewhat retreats from 5-7pm.  Snow continues as run ends at 7pm Sun with ~9-11" across the LSV.  A tightrope across southeastern counties.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Long range HRRR looks pretty solid at the end if its run



.

We've been ninja'ing each other all day (that's the term isn't it?) haha.  Good stuff Chris.