Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[paweather]

14 minutes ago, anotherman said:

6Z Euro

Thanks was just going to post this. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Just went by MDT on the train and the river ice is back in a big way. Can’t wait to see what it looks like next week. 

[Voyager]

My temp seems to be rebounding a bit from what appears to be a -3.8 morning low.

[pawatch]

Anyone worried about power outages with the weekend storm?

[mahantango#1]

6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

My temp seems to be rebounding a bit from what appears to be a -3.8 morning low.

Looks like you have me beat on that low temp. Mine is -2.2 Congratulations on your low!

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Anyone worried about power outages with the weekend storm?

I'm wondering the same thing, and will there be wind ? Could be a bad setup with no power and those frigid temps...and if theres wind to boot.

[Blizzard of 93]

Low of 5 in Marysville.

[mahantango#1]

 Today marks the all-time record low for Harrisburg, too, at -22° back in 1994 after the blizzard

[Voyager]

13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Looks like you have me beat on that low temp. Mine is -2.2 Congratulations on your low!

Usually you are colder than me. Today's a bit different. Crazy cold at our shop, though. Got down to -10 there.

[canderson]

6 was my low. 
 

It’s funny the gfs had everyone questioning suppression and 12 hours later everyone is concerned about amplification 

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Usually you are colder than me. Today's a bit different. Crazy cold at our shop, though. Got down to -10 there.

BRRR!

[canderson]

13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I'm wondering the same thing, and will there be wind ? Could be a bad setup with no power and those frigid temps...and if theres wind to boot.

I don’t think it’ll be but winds. Breezy but not 35+. I’ll let someone way smarter correct me if needed! 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

6 was my low. 
 

It’s funny the gfs had everyone questioning suppression and 12 hours later everyone is concerned about amplification 

Maybe someone dropped a Viagra in with latest gfs run to increase amplification.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

I don’t think it’ll be but winds. Breezy but not 35+. I’ll let someone way smarter correct me if needed! 

ABC27 said it will be blustery after the storm on Monday.

[paweather]

With dew points likely low I wonder how soon the air will moisten up for snow to fall.

[Blizzard of 93]

Great to see the good trends for us continue through 6z. Hopefully the amped up trend stops & stabilizes today.

I think most of CTP is in a great spot for the best storm at least since Feb 1st in 2021 when MDT got near one foot.

Let’s watch the trends & see what the NAM & other short range models start spitting out on the next couple of days.

[canderson]

CTP has this gem from this morning’s discussion 

Details will become increasingly
clear over the next day or two, but now is the time to prepare for a potentially significant winter storm that will affect parts of Central PA Saturday and Sunday.

[CASH_COOP]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great to see the good trends for us continue through 6z. Hopefully the amped up trend stops & stabilizes today.

I think most of CTP is in a great spot for the best storm at least since Feb 1st in 2021 when MDT got near one foot.

Let’s watch the trends & see what the NAM & other short range models start spitting out on the next couple of days.

You might have to dust off the big daddy hat

[ChescoWx]

Many of the lower valley locations across the area saw temperatures below zero overnight and this morning. The lowest was the 8.1 below zero at the Warwick DEOS site this is the 2nd coldest reading in station history behind only last January 22nd with a low of 9.1 below zero. The West Chester DEOS recorded it's coldest temperature in station history when the mercury fell to 1.9 degrees below zero this morning. Both stations have records back to 2012. We should see temps get close to freezing this afternoon and even milder tomorrow with highs near 40 degrees to melt some of the snow cover. The milder air is a one-day event as colder air moves back in tomorrow night setting the stage for what could be a major winter storm beginning as early as late Saturday or early Sunday morning. Snow may last into Monday morning before tapering off.

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great to see the good trends for us continue through 6z. Hopefully the amped up trend stops & stabilizes today.

I think most of CTP is in a great spot for the best storm at least since Feb 1st in 2021 when MDT got near one foot.

Let’s watch the trends & see what the NAM & other short range models start spitting out on the next couple of days.

Yep soon time for the short range models to show the glory. 

[CASH_COOP]

Very exciting times finally something to post about this winter. I’m looking forward to meso range and start seeing the high-end potential.   

[GrandmasterB]

31 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s funny the gfs had everyone questioning suppression and 12 hours later everyone is concerned about amplification 

You new here?

my worry with amplification is we still have such a long way to go (72+ hours), but the WAA thump looks prodigious regardless of how far the primary pushes north. 

[pasnownut]

9 hours ago, canderson said:

That N trend still has a hundred or so miles to go imo. I wonder if sleet makes it into the DC metro area. 

Ask and you shall receive.  Overnighter and 6z's are a thing of beauty.  

 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Voyager said:

Cracked the zero mark sometime overnight. Now sitting at -2.9 in my backyard. At my colder location shop in Andreas, southeast of here it's -9.4

Here in northern lanco (last weekend jackpot for LSV events) I saw -6, 2 miles from my house this morning, but as I headed west twds Etown, 2-5 was the range I saw.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

Anyone worried about power outages with the weekend storm?

fortunately its a light and fluffy snow that we'll be dealing w/, but 12+ of any snow can become a factor.  Hopeful that as the cones narrow (and we look to be squarely in them) that peeps listen and prepare for potential loss of heat/power.  I'm telling everyone I can to get grill food ready and make sure propane is filled....just in case.  

I may have to sit at my desk for a while.  Looking at the overnighters has me looking like a 16yr old lookin at playboys.  Pants tent for sure.  

This is so fun.....LOVE it.  Lets enjoy boys n girls.  

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Voyager said:

6z GFS holds serve...

Considering the high ratios this one should have, I think the Kuchera map is the right way to go.

Its a rarety when we get to look at Kuch and actually believe the numbers may be a close reflection of OTG totals.  

[pasnownut]

58 minutes ago, paweather said:

With dew points likely low I wonder how soon the air will moisten up for snow to fall.

im sure it'll take a bit of time, but w/ the amount of moisture headed this way, i'd think not much qpf would be "wasted".

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

im sure it'll take a bit of time, but w/ the amount of moisture headed this way, i'd think not much qpf would be "wasted".

Yeah hopefully not too much qpf miss

[mahantango#1]

[pasnownut]

57 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

You new here?

my worry with amplification is we still have such a long way to go (72+ hours), but the WAA thump looks prodigious regardless of how far the primary pushes north. 

This is a very fair point.  72 + hours is still enough time for some wiggle in the modeling, especially as the players enter the field (conus) tomorrow night and models hone in on what n where things are, and where they are headed.  Fortunately there's been enough continuity for last couple days that the goalposts are becoming a bit better defined, and should start to narrow.  We currently are on the inside - center left post, and hopefully stay inside.  IF we can survive today full set of runs (including tonights 0z's, I'd think we'll be alright.  If we end up back in the 6+ and not 16" range, its still a win.