Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I know it's only January 13th, but each day of this winter is slowly slipping away day by day. Hopefully we can get one big snowstorm 12 inches plus before March.

There certainly is a bit of a feelin of "here we go again" starting to settle in; however, IF, and it's a big if, if we can get the southern stream open up later this month, I like our chances.

This is an antsy time on this forum because there's enough showing on indices to keep positive people optimistic about future chances, but we're seeing enough can-kicking right now to feed the negative folks with enough sauce to start complaining. Even over the past couple of years when we were stuck in an overall unfavorable pattern, we got enough good looks that were advertised to be coming but either never did show up or if they did, did not produce. So now when the good looks get pushed back again, the I told you so comments start flying. A few weeks ago many thought that most of January would be rocking, today's sentiment is we're looking at the last week of the month into mid February. 

I really do see and empathize with both sides/viewpoints. I think there's enough showing to be optimistic and I think there's been enough can-kicking that it's natural to be skeptical. 

[mahantango#1]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There certainly is a bit of a feelin of "here we go again" starting to settle in; however, IF, and it's a big if, if we can get the southern stream open up later this month, I like our chances.

This is an antsy time on this forum because there's enough showing on indices to keep positive people optimistic about future chances, but we're seeing enough can-kicking right now to feed the negative folks with enough sauce to start complaining. Even over the past couple of years when we were stuck in an overall unfavorable pattern, we got enough good looks that were advertised to be coming but either never did show up or if they did, did not produce. So now when the good looks get pushed back again, the I told you so comments start flying. A few weeks ago many thought that most of January would be rocking, today's sentiment is we're looking at the last week of the month into mid February. 

I really do see and empathize with both sides/viewpoints. I think there's enough showing to be optimistic and I think there's been enough can-kicking that it's natural to be skeptical. 

It's like if we're not gonna get a meaningful snowfall with this cold, we might as well move along to spring. But I know that won't happen. Hopefully there's hope down the road. Time will tell.  And the only can kicking that will be taking place will be in Harrisburg. Canderson's trash cans after a 50mph wind gust on trash day. 

[Voyager]

45 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I know it's only January 13th, but each day of this winter is slowly slipping away day by day. Hopefully we can get one big snowstorm 12 inches plus before March.

This is how I feel. I'm not big on nickel and diming with clippers. If it's going to snow, then I want it to be a worthwhile storm.

[mahantango#1]

37 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This is how I feel. I'm not big on nickel and diming with clippers. If it's going to snow, then I want it to be a worthwhile storm.

Absolutely!

[str8liner]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

I know it's only January 13th, but each day of this winter is slowly slipping away day by day. Hopefully we can get one big snowstorm 12 inches plus before March.

I literally have not even got the snow blower out and gassed it up yet. I winterized it last year, put it away and have not touched it.

Winters are becoming non existent in my area, except for the cold.

/rant

 

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

It's like if we're not gonna get a meaningful snowfall with this cold, we might as well move along to spring. But I know that won't happen. Hopefully there's hope down the road. Time will tell.  And the only can kicking that will be taking place will be in Harrisburg. Canderson's trash cans after a 50mph wind gust on trash day. 

no offense, but that's your personal take.  Mine, not at all the same. 

I like winter and seeing snow....often.

Even if nickels n dimes.....often. 

Like every other day....often

 

peeps need to be reminded that ones perspective is often based on personal likes/dislikes, and thats just fine.  But just cause you feel something and post about it...doesnt make it happen.  I rarely post w/ my emotion (well in fun sure), but I think most know that I try to keep my personal feelings/wishes out of what I see or share, and try to use some amateur weenie knowledge into possibilities.  We've had a not horrible pattern for weeks now, and yes, it feels wasted to us true snowhounds, but up north has been basically snowcovered since thanksgiving (with the exception of a few small periods/days).

 

 

 

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, str8liner said:

I literally have not even got the snow blower out and gassed it up yet. I winterized it last year, put it away and have not touched it.

Winters are becoming non existent in my area, except for the cold.

/rant

 

 

I just tweaked my carb on mine this weekend.  The BEAST is ready to eat....even little crumbs.  

Unfortunately you are rather similar to us SE'rs (piedmont region) w/ your typical winter weather.  That said....we feel your pain.  

Lets hope things get going soon, and for us realists that sprinkle in some optimist for good flavor, later Jan/Feb was supposted to be the end of winter from some early calls, and if the look holds, it may just be the start of the real fun.  For how long....dunno, but it has not been a shutout whatsoever, and I'm not complaining whatsoever........yet.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Feels like a good time to remind everyone of the following, all of which is taken from MU's exactly 100 years of snowfall record-keeping.

MU only averages a 12"+ snowfall about once every three years and only averages a little over two events per year with >4".  They average ~9.5 measurable snowfalls a year at an average accumulation of 2.86", for a yearly average ~27".  Over 75% of the accumulated snowfall comes from events <4".  32% of the snow falls in Feb, 30% in Jan, 17% Dec, 16% Mar, 3% Nov, and 1% in April (yes I'm aware these add up to 99 and not 100 ha).  Leanest decade was the 50's with an average annual snowfall of only 21.6".  Current decade is averaging only 14.8" but that is coming on the heels of one of our snowiest from 2010-2019 with an average of 35.5".  Snowiest decade was the 60s with an annual average of 36.2".

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Feels like a good time to remind everyone of the following, all of which is taken from MU's exactly 100 years of snowfall record-keeping.

MU only averages a 12"+ snowfall about once every three years and only averages a little over two events per year with >4".  They average ~9.5 measurable snowfalls a year at an average accumulation of 2.86", for a yearly average ~27".  Over 75% of the accumulated snowfall comes from events <4".  32% of the snow falls in Feb, 30% in Jan, 17% Dec, 16% Mar, 3% Nov, and 1% in April (yes I'm aware these add up to 99 and not 100 ha).  Leanest decade was the 50's with an average annual snowfall of only 21.6".  Current decade is averaging only 14.8" but that is coming on the heels of one of our snowiest from 2010-2019 with an average of 35.5".  Snowiest decade was the 60s with an annual average of 36.2".

Thank you for 1, providing your customary great stats and B, providing me with a headache trying to digest all of the numbers and percentages. 

You left out the percentage of times in history that Pittsburgh is looking for a new head football coach. 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you for 1, providing your customary great stats and B, providing me with a headache trying to digest all of the numbers and percentages. 

You left out the percentage of times in history that Pittsburgh is looking for a new head football coach. 

officially or just chatter.  

officially once in last 19yrs

unofficially probably 100's.  I like Tomlin, and wish him well.  

[pasnownut]

I80 northers approve of HH NAM'in they are getting Thursday.

as many models are honing in on SLP track, looks like some snow is possible for them.  Hoping its the start of something.  If not, there's always the next one.  

[pawatch]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I just tweaked my carb on mine this weekend.  The BEAST is ready to eat....even little crumbs.  

Unfortunately you are rather similar to us SE'rs (piedmont region) w/ your typical winter weather.  That said....we feel your pain.  

Lets hope things get going soon, and for us realists that sprinkle in some optimist for good flavor, later Jan/Feb was supposted to be the end of winter from some early calls, and if the look holds, it may just be the start of the real fun.  For how long....dunno, but it has not been a shutout whatsoever, and I'm not complaining whatsoever........yet.  

My blower has got a lot of use this year. Mostly on 1.5” snows. If I don’t clean my drive it turns to ice. And probably wouldn’t have melted.

“300’ drive”

Thursday looks brutal with the windchills.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

My blower has got a lot of use this year. Mostly on 1.5” snows. If I don’t clean my drive it turns to ice. And probably wouldn’t have melted.

“300’ drive”

Thursday looks brutal with the windchills.

wow....

can you say.....snowPLOW!

thats a long driveway!!

you can get a plow cheap on marketplace.  I got brand new one that was for an Exmark Tractor (for free), and cut mount bracket apart and fabricated it to be a front pin mount for my UTV.  Works like a charm (minus my less than stellar welding), and it's saved my back a ton when at cabin.  

Hoping you get to use your blower Thurs.(not sure why i said Friday earlier other than I friday on the brain as i may have to travel from Etown to Lock Haven to Mansfield that day.)

Then I'll just stay up north and play w/ my plow.  I'll turn the negative in the the positive. 

[Ruin]

11 hours ago, pawatch said:

18 degrees this morning.

What gets me forecast  low last night 28. It went all the way too 22 today's high 45 got to 49 here. How do you go lower over night then projected but then recover and beat the forecasted high ?

[anotherman]

You are way too obsessed with forecasted highs and lows. A forecast is a hypothesis. An educated guess. An attempt to tell the future despite variables that are part of the ultimate chaotic system. It reminds me of people who send death threats to local weather people when they get a forecast wrong. Smarten up!

[pasnownut]

Callin @Blizzard of 93

Yall want a snowstorm to root on, go look at the GooFuS 1/24 "event".  

Then hold onto side rails.... and look at the snow map.

Verbatim, it is likely one of the most prolific snow events I've seen, maybe ever.  Maybe not for widespread disruption, but entire state at 12+

Through the run, somerset jackpots at 62".  What I/we wouldnt do to see something even remotely close verify.

Someone needs to post the map.  Its just a statewide slammer.  Based on pattern evolution and looking like a zonalish flow, based on tellies blah blah blah, it sorta fits the flow.  

Just go look so you have something to bitch about when it doesnt happen.....till then, I'ma gonna dream.  

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, anotherman said:

You are way too obsessed with forecasted highs and lows. A forecast is a hypothesis. An educated guess. An attempt to tell the future despite variables that are part of the ultimate chaotic system. It reminds me of people who send death threats to local weather people when they get a forecast wrong. Smarten up!

Some peeps just want somthin to complain about.  I don't get that one bit.  Who f'in cares if they are calling for 46 and its +/- a couple.  Whoopy f'in doo.  

Sounds like the Debbie train is loaded n full steam ahead.  

[anotherman]

Callin [mention=12693]Blizzard of 93[/mention]
Yall want a snowstorm to root on, go look at the GooFuS 1/24 "event".  
Then hold onto side rails.... and look at the snow map.
Verbatim, it is likely one of the most prolific snow events I've seen, maybe ever.  Maybe not for widespread disruption, but entire state at 12+
Through the run, somerset jackpots at 62".  What I/we wouldnt do to see something even remotely close verify.
Someone needs to post the map.  Its just a statewide slammer.  Based on pattern evolution and looking like a zonalish flow, based on tellies blah blah blah, it sorta fits the flow.  
Just go look so you have something to bitch about when it doesnt happen.....till then, I'ma gonna dream.  

Pure fantasy…..

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Pure fantasy…..

I’ve looked at a lot of snow maps in my lifetime, but I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a 16 day map for Central PA that produced these insane amounts.
I think most would be thrilled if we approached near 1 foot in the next 16 days…

[Blizzard of 93]

17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Some peeps just want somthin to complain about.  I don't get that one bit.  Who f'in cares if they are calling for 46 and its +/- a couple.  Whoopy f'in doo.  

Sounds like the Debbie train is loaded n full steam ahead.  

I just recently set up a few folks on the “Ignore” feature on here for the first time in my 12 years of membership.

My viewing experience on here is already so much better. If no one replies, I’ll never see certain posts.

I highly recommend it!

[Blizzard of 93]

5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Feels like a good time to remind everyone of the following, all of which is taken from MU's exactly 100 years of snowfall record-keeping.

MU only averages a 12"+ snowfall about once every three years and only averages a little over two events per year with >4".  They average ~9.5 measurable snowfalls a year at an average accumulation of 2.86", for a yearly average ~27".  Over 75% of the accumulated snowfall comes from events <4".  32% of the snow falls in Feb, 30% in Jan, 17% Dec, 16% Mar, 3% Nov, and 1% in April (yes I'm aware these add up to 99 and not 100 ha).  Leanest decade was the 50's with an average annual snowfall of only 21.6".  Current decade is averaging only 14.8" but that is coming on the heels of one of our snowiest from 2010-2019 with an average of 35.5".  Snowiest decade was the 60s with an annual average of 36.2".

Great post & reminder of what our seasonal averages are in the LSV. 

MDT averages 30 inches of snow per season. The monthly breakdown if I recall correctly is 1 inch in November, 5 in December, 9 in January, 10 in February & 5 in March.

Currently MDT is sitting at 5 inches for the season to date. By the end of January, MDT needs to score about 11 inches to stay on pace for the seasonal average.

 

 

[AMDEW80]

33 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Pure fantasy…..

WOW that is impressive, fingers crossed! Just don’t like the snow hole up here, I want over 4 feet as well

[canderson]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just recently set up a few folks on the “Ignore” feature on here for the first time in my 12 years of membership.

My viewing experience on here is already so much better. If no one replies, I’ll never see certain posts.

I highly recommend it!

Woah how do you ignore users? I don’t see that option! 

[pawatch]

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

wow....

can you say.....snowPLOW!

thats a long driveway!!

you can get a plow cheap on marketplace.  I got brand new one that was for an Exmark Tractor (for free), and cut mount bracket apart and fabricated it to be a front pin mount for my UTV.  Works like a charm (minus my less than stellar welding), and it's saved my back a ton when at cabin.  

Hoping you get to use your blower Thurs.(not sure why i said Friday earlier other than I friday on the brain as i may have to travel from Etown to Lock Haven to Mansfield that day.)

Then I'll just stay up north and play w/ my plow.  I'll turn the negative in the the positive. 

I have a Koti tractor with a rear blower/front bucket. But felt it wasn’t worth getting it out for 1.5” of snow.

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, canderson said:

Woah how do you ignore users? I don’t see that option! 

Go in & select Account & then select Ignored Users and then enter their user name to add whoever to your list. 
It only took a minute to set up.

[canderson]

Thank you @Blizzard of 93! 

Let’s hope that snow map you posted even comes to 1/4 true. It seems bleak at the moment. 

[str8liner]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ve looked at a lot of snow maps in my lifetime, but I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a 16 day map for Central PA that produced these insane amounts.
I think most would be thrilled if we approached near 1 foot in the next 16 days…

 

Please baby Jesus, just one time lol.

 

Heck I would be happy to have enough to even get the snow blower out.

 

[MillvilleWx]

Hey y'all!! Wanted to drop by and say we are looking closely at that time frame between the 23rd thru the 30th this month for active weather potential. SWFE type pattern that tends to have good promise for the state. Obviously where the baroclinic zone ends up is the key in all this, but the pattern shaping up seems to be trending in that direction. This has been on many Met's radar's for the past week or so and seems to be holding weight. GFS run was obviously the most extreme fantasy you'll ever see for the pattern (Not happening), but the type of setup is certainly plausible given the confluent area to the north and a weakening SER to our south. For now, just some clipper and squall type snows as the troughing pattern returns for a period. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Pure fantasy…..

Yeah I knew Kutch would look better than run of the mill 10:1, but didnt want to sound like I was hypin somethin up 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ve looked at a lot of snow maps in my lifetime, but I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a 16 day map for Central PA that produced these insane amounts.
I think most would be thrilled if we approached near 1 foot in the next 16 days…

Hell, a warnin level event would suit me just fine, or a couple advisory types in a short timeframe.  I'm a realist, but someone went a little wild w/ the fairy dust for HH.  

@anothermanthanks for postin it.