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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035
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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

ChescoWx
ChescoWx

Another 1.0" has fallen here in East Nantmeal since 6am total snow 8.5"  Still some light snow temp down to 26.9

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, paweather said:

WGAL weather made it look like a weak storm with their graphics and it was over Friday night? 

Sounds like it's over by early Saturday morning. 

 

I also just peeped the point and click and the cold air that was supposed to come seems to have died. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, paweather said:

I doubt that’s the problem I think it should be cold enough for the duration of the storm

12z Euro still sees this as primarily a freezing rain threat for most of us. Some have mentioned the Euro struggles to see sleet, so it will come down to the upper level temperatures.

Surface temperature at the height of the storm tomorrow evening are in the 20s for most of us, so whatever falls will be a problem on the roads.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
Sounds like it's over by early Saturday morning. 
 
I also just peeped the point and click and the cold air that was supposed to come seems to have died. 
Where is this all coming from? The temperature forecast hasn't budged. Friday night in Harrisburg it gets down to 26-28. The storm was always a clipper and always a 6 hour affair. When did people get the idea that this was some big behemoth of a system? Is it just because we have a winter storm watch so people have preconceived notions of what that means? The one thing is clear is that people need to be off the roads totally Friday evening.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Where is this all coming from? The temperature forecast hasn't budged. Friday night in Harrisburg it gets down to 26-28. The storm was always a clipper and always a 6 hour affair. When did people get the idea that this was some big behemoth of a system? Is it just because we have a winter storm watch so people have preconceived notions of what that means? The one thing is clear is that people need to be off the roads totally Friday evening.

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100% correct- the vast majority of precip will last about 6 hours in any given location. Freezing drizzle will follow.

Merry Christmas everyone!

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted

After our areas first chance at snow this year I observed just how far the areas winter weather driving skills have plummeted after a few meager winters. They weren't great before, but they are bordering on Atlanta drivers during a snowstorm bad now. Throw in Friday being a big holiday driving day and I fear any downplaying of this is going to lead to bad bad outcomes especially with the uncertainty of sleet or freezing rain. Sleet is relatively easy to deal with road wise, but the minute it goes to freezing rain with temperatures in the 20s it's going to be real bad. The pavement is not going to hold the warmth of this afternoon. The low tonight is 25.

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Where is this all coming from? The temperature forecast hasn't budged. Friday night in Harrisburg it gets down to 26-28. The storm was always a clipper and always a 6 hour affair. When did people get the idea that this was some big behemoth of a system? Is it just because we have a winter storm watch so people have preconceived notions of what that means? The one thing is clear is that people need to be off the roads totally Friday evening.

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I'm pretty sure @WmsptWxwasn't talking about the cold air for tomorrow's storm.  He was talking about the strength of the cold air coming in on Monday behind the arctic front.  The intensity of the cold post-frontal has been progressively weakening over the last few days.  I can see how you could easily confuse the reference between the cold of tomorrow's storm versus Monday's cold.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
I'm pretty sure [mention=2708]WmsptWx[/mention]wasn't talking about the cold air for tomorrow's storm.  He was talking about the strength of the cold air coming in on Monday behind the arctic front.  The intensity of the cold post-frontal has been progressively weakening over the last few days.  I can see how you could easily confuse the reference between the cold of tomorrow's storm versus Monday's cold.
I only ever saw forecast with highs 30-35 for Tuesday/Wednesday. Where forecast highs lower than that before? One of the reasons I found Friday storm intriguing was NWS having cut there forecast high Friday by 25 or so degrees. A forecast high that did have basically full model support for days before having the rug pulled out and one they were parroting a bit on social media the end of last week and last weekend. I saw some models lower for this upcoming Tuesday, I don't think it was full consus.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted

One thing I'm very interested in is the perceived utter failure of mid range models by a cadre of professional forecasters. I know mag mentioned known struggles in winter when switching to -NAO, but it appears this ongoing failure is way on top of normal struggles. I have not checked verification scores. The other hersay is that the AI models have done a significantly better job in mid range the past couple months. If anyone knows a site for verification scores of those it would be awesome! From my basic understanding the AI models run on basically a similar algorithm to guessing the next pixel in a image vs the normal models extreme physics modeling. Finding out when and we're each one excels seems like the obvious move.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted

Advisory up forum wide

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service State College PA215 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-261700-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T1200Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.251226T1700Z-251227T1200Z/Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-Including the cities of Lebanon, Coudersport, Danville, Berwick,Williamsport, Lewistown, Sunbury, Chambersburg, Huntingdon,Altoona, Renovo, State College, Lewisburg, Newport, Mifflintown,Lock Haven, Mount Union, Mansfield, Pottsville, Selinsgrove,Gettysburg, Shamokin, Wellsboro, Laporte, Carlisle, Lancaster,York, Philipsburg, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Bedford, Harrisburg,Emporium, McConnellsburg, and Trout Run215 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch.* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.* WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest roadconditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained bycalling 5 1 1.&&$$For more information from the National Weather Service visitweather.gov/StateCollegeMartin/Lambert/Tyburski



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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I'm pretty sure @WmsptWxwasn't talking about the cold air for tomorrow's storm.  He was talking about the strength of the cold air coming in on Monday behind the arctic front.  The intensity of the cold post-frontal has been progressively weakening over the last few days.  I can see how you could easily confuse the reference between the cold of tomorrow's storm versus Monday's cold.

Yup. Which is good because originally it was going to be a significant wind event. It’ll still be very windy but far better than what it could have been. 

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Ruin

Ruin

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

You do realize every other model is 4x-5x that?

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I s talking models period. I've seen euro nam etc go from a full out blizzard to flurries in 1 run to the next 2 days out 

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
I s talking models period. I've seen euro nam etc go from a full out blizzard to flurries in 1 run to the next 2 days out 
That's why we have ensembles. The normal run is just one member in a mix of like 50. You ever see a printout of all the members and how wildly different they are? All that difference is due to miniscule changes at the start in each if the results. Weather is the ultimate complex stochastic, non-deterministic system. Even though it is based on deterministic physical laws. One would need to know the position and momentum of all molecules that make up the earth and it's atmosphere at the starting condition in order to attain perfect models. One reason models go from blizzard to flurries is it's a whole lot harder to have things happen in the precise order and precise timing but the answer to your question is not to ever relay on a single model run of a single model. Blended forecasts based on multiple models and model runs are the rule for a reason.

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