Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

12Z GFS slightly colder outcome for everyone and a little more precip for the southern crew. 

[Jns2183]

I'm seeing some wind guests 25-30 Friday night

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[Blizzard of 93]

12z HRRR gets a good amount of sleet into most of CTP & the decent snow line this run gets into a good portion of Dauphin, Lebanon & Lancaster county.

[canderson]

@sauss06 can’t post because when he tries to log on he gets a message it is “read only”. 
 

Anyone know what that means? 

[WmsptWx]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

@sauss06 can’t post because when he tries to log on he gets a message it is “read only”. 
 

Anyone know what that means? 

Sounds like he need a new tablet. Hed better hurry to the quarry today before the limestone freezes.

[paweather]

WGAL weather made it look like a weak storm with their graphics and it was over Friday night? 

[WmsptWx]

15 minutes ago, paweather said:

WGAL weather made it look like a weak storm with their graphics and it was over Friday night? 

Sounds like it's over by early Saturday morning. 

 

I also just peeped the point and click and the cold air that was supposed to come seems to have died. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Sounds like it's over by early Saturday morning. 

 

I also just peeped the point and click and the cold air that was supposed to come seems to have died. 

I doubt that’s the problem I think it should be cold enough for the duration of the storm

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

I doubt that’s the problem I think it should be cold enough for the duration of the storm

12z Euro still sees this as primarily a freezing rain threat for most of us. Some have mentioned the Euro struggles to see sleet, so it will come down to the upper level temperatures.

Surface temperature at the height of the storm tomorrow evening are in the 20s for most of us, so whatever falls will be a problem on the roads.

[GrandmasterB]

Thanks Blizz. 12Z Euro appears a little snowier to me than the 0Z run. I use the crappy free site, so if someone has nice maps to share please and thank you!!

[Jns2183]

Sounds like it's over by early Saturday morning. 
 
I also just peeped the point and click and the cold air that was supposed to come seems to have died. 

Where is this all coming from? The temperature forecast hasn't budged. Friday night in Harrisburg it gets down to 26-28. The storm was always a clipper and always a 6 hour affair. When did people get the idea that this was some big behemoth of a system? Is it just because we have a winter storm watch so people have preconceived notions of what that means? The one thing is clear is that people need to be off the roads totally Friday evening.

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[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Where is this all coming from? The temperature forecast hasn't budged. Friday night in Harrisburg it gets down to 26-28. The storm was always a clipper and always a 6 hour affair. When did people get the idea that this was some big behemoth of a system? Is it just because we have a winter storm watch so people have preconceived notions of what that means? The one thing is clear is that people need to be off the roads totally Friday evening.

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100% correct- the vast majority of precip will last about 6 hours in any given location. Freezing drizzle will follow.

Merry Christmas everyone!

[Jns2183]

After our areas first chance at snow this year I observed just how far the areas winter weather driving skills have plummeted after a few meager winters. They weren't great before, but they are bordering on Atlanta drivers during a snowstorm bad now. Throw in Friday being a big holiday driving day and I fear any downplaying of this is going to lead to bad bad outcomes especially with the uncertainty of sleet or freezing rain. Sleet is relatively easy to deal with road wise, but the minute it goes to freezing rain with temperatures in the 20s it's going to be real bad. The pavement is not going to hold the warmth of this afternoon. The low tonight is 25.

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[CarlislePaWx]

15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Where is this all coming from? The temperature forecast hasn't budged. Friday night in Harrisburg it gets down to 26-28. The storm was always a clipper and always a 6 hour affair. When did people get the idea that this was some big behemoth of a system? Is it just because we have a winter storm watch so people have preconceived notions of what that means? The one thing is clear is that people need to be off the roads totally Friday evening.

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I'm pretty sure @WmsptWxwasn't talking about the cold air for tomorrow's storm.  He was talking about the strength of the cold air coming in on Monday behind the arctic front.  The intensity of the cold post-frontal has been progressively weakening over the last few days.  I can see how you could easily confuse the reference between the cold of tomorrow's storm versus Monday's cold.

[Jns2183]

I'm pretty sure [mention=2708]WmsptWx[/mention]wasn't talking about the cold air for tomorrow's storm.  He was talking about the strength of the cold air coming in on Monday behind the arctic front.  The intensity of the cold post-frontal has been progressively weakening over the last few days.  I can see how you could easily confuse the reference between the cold of tomorrow's storm versus Monday's cold.

I only ever saw forecast with highs 30-35 for Tuesday/Wednesday. Where forecast highs lower than that before? One of the reasons I found Friday storm intriguing was NWS having cut there forecast high Friday by 25 or so degrees. A forecast high that did have basically full model support for days before having the rug pulled out and one they were parroting a bit on social media the end of last week and last weekend. I saw some models lower for this upcoming Tuesday, I don't think it was full consus.

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