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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035
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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

ChescoWx
ChescoWx

Another 1.0" has fallen here in East Nantmeal since 6am total snow 8.5"  Still some light snow temp down to 26.9

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it was the right time with her almost 11. Yeah I definitely shed some tears with this one. My daughter is on cloud 9. IMG_20251224_204551.jpgIMG_20251224_204557.jpg

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Ruin

Ruin

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, AccuChris said:

0z 3km NAM QPF is pretty paltry1f15eb60ed060e2ca0f1964e5b6861d2.jpg


.

lol omfg models are pathetic ok hold up before you bash me. We go from one model run that produces .50-1.00 of liquid to now 0.05 for a vast majority of the state? We deserve better this isnt even a advisory lvl event. If each model run over lets say 4-5 of the same model showed less and less ok id accept it. But 1 model run to the next and it just vanishes like a fart in the wind? The National Weather Service (NWS) operates on an annual budget of roughly 1.3-1.4 billion dollars yearly. When they do get it wrong which is more often then many want to admit nothing happens people accept the weather forecast was wrong. we deserve better then this has the outcome happen yet? No but what the hell is with all the flopping like a dead fish with model all the dang time?

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
lol omfg models are pathetic ok hold up before you bash me. We go from one model run that produces .50-1.00 of liquid to now 0.05 for a vast majority of the state? We deserve better this isnt even a advisory lvl event. If each model run over lets say 4-5 of the same model showed less and less ok id accept it. But 1 model run to the next and it just vanishes like a fart in the wind? The National Weather Service (NWS) operates on an annual budget of roughly 1.3-1.4 billion dollars yearly. When they do get it wrong which is more often then many want to admit nothing happens people accept the weather forecast was wrong. we deserve better then this has the outcome happen yet? No but what the hell is with all the flopping like a dead fish with model all the dang time?
You do realize every other model is 4x-5x that?

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

Still nice to have this even though it’s a mix mess…

Winter Storm Watch 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
213 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

PAZ004>006-011-012-018-019-026>028-035-036-045-049-050-056-057-059-
063>066-252100-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T1200Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-
Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Lock Haven, Mifflintown, Emporium,
Warren, Chambersburg, Renovo, Selinsgrove, Bradford, Mount Union,
Newport, Lewistown, Lebanon, Carlisle, State College, Lancaster,
Harrisburg, Philipsburg, Lewisburg, Gettysburg, Huntingdon,
Coudersport, Hershey, York, and McConnellsburg
213 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one
  quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous travel conditions are likely. Plan on slippery
  road conditions. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to
  the ice. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning
  and evening commutes.

 

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
Still nice to have this even though it’s a mix mess…

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service State College PA213 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025PAZ004>006-011-012-018-019-026>028-035-036-045-049-050-056-057-059-063>066-252100-/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T1200Z/Warren-McKean-Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-Including the cities of Lock Haven, Mifflintown, Emporium,Warren, Chambersburg, Renovo, Selinsgrove, Bradford, Mount Union,Newport, Lewistown, Lebanon, Carlisle, State College, Lancaster,Harrisburg, Philipsburg, Lewisburg, Gettysburg, Huntingdon,Coudersport, Hershey, York, and McConnellsburg213 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch possible.* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.* IMPACTS...Hazardous travel conditions are likely. Plan on slippery road conditions. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

 

A week ago we were looking at 50's for tomorrow. Now it maybe a mess, but it's our mess, and we will get some amazing landscape images come Saturday morning

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GrandmasterB

GrandmasterB

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

We seem to be trending towards a more traditional FRZ event.

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Someone posted in the MA forum that a known tendency of the Euro is to show freezing rain that should be a sleet profile. That would explain the difference between the GFS’s sleet output and the Euro which is almost entirely frz rain. Should be interesting regardless of how this transpires. 
 

…And Merry Christmas everyone!!

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
Someone posted in the MA forum that a known tendency of the Euro is to show freezing rain that should be a sleet profile. That would explain the difference between the GFS’s sleet output and the Euro which is almost entirely frz rain. Should be interesting regardless of how this transpires. 
 
…And Merry Christmas everyone!!
That's great to know!! Thank you for that insight.

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