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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


MAG5035
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A few more counties have been graced with a HWO… this Not good enough messaging…

Most People need to see at least an Advisory to consider not going out or altering their plans, especially on a Saturday night near the holidays…

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
245 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

PAZ057>059-063-064-141945-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
245 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Brief heavy snow is possible this evening and early tonight. Most
locations will pick up 1 to 2 inches, but spot amounts of 3 or 4 are
possible, especially on the higher elevations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

 

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What’s wrong with an Advisory for 1 to 3 with a few spots maybe seeing 4 ? 

I don’t understand their reasoning. We don’t live in the mountains down here, so the message needs to be clear for average people that don’t pay close attention to the weather.

Likely we’ll get an Advisory for Dauphin, Lebanon & Skook as the event is underway, which would be too late to help people with travel decisions.

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15 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

As expected133e265304d784da80bee44ac8a1bd13.jpg


.

It’s a start, but they need to add Dauphin & Skook…

I’m not sure they are aware that most of the population of Dauphin county is in the southern half…

They just updated with this:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid afternoon changes.

Some model guidance has a bit heavier QPF across the northern
edge of where we had an advisory out for the far SE counties,
thus adding in a couple more counties into the advisory.

 

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So much to think about...it's only a clipper...but the mid-level vorticity is potent...but the antecedent air mass was bone dry...but the height falls are impressive...but the surface high is too far south...but the low level winds are from the warm ocean advecting moisture...at the least, this will be an interesting winter event; if it were mild, we say we need this ~0.30 " of precip and go on our ways!  Love the wx and the meteo!

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s a start, but they need to add Dauphin & Skook…

I’m not sure they are aware that most of the population of Dauphin county is in the southern half…

They just updated with this:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid afternoon changes.

Some model guidance has a bit heavier QPF across the northern
edge of where we had an advisory out for the far SE counties,
thus adding in a couple more counties into the advisory.

 

I agree. Most short term guidance has upped the ante for both counties.

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24 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Light snow here. Everything covered, no melting 30 degrees

 

9 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Roads here caved a little while ago. More than I expected already.

We're not to that point yet. Just a dusting on the roof of the Bronco 

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