The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It comes out so slow you will make it no matter where you are going lol

Well it is run on an original Super Nintendo 64 so they have to keep taking the cartridge out and blowing on it to restart it after certain panels so i get it. 

[LP08]

At 33, getting stretched more than 6z.  Less press over NE but over the SW is flatter.

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

For some reason I am enthused seeing the euro.  I adopted a new stance to wait until inside 84 hours vice 384hrs for enthusiasm ops. 

Hey buddy 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, H2O said:

But I’m not snowenouthere and I’ll eat my shoe if wrong

With or without gum on it?

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro

I did NOT make 4+ analysis posts for the show hole to be squarely over Charlottesville imma need that to change to some rando place like 50 miles east. That said, seems like positive trends so I’ll take a look at them later 

[SnowenOutThere]

And the NAM is weird cause the wave itself is a bit more stretched but the vorticity behind it is a bit more N/S oriented so probably be somewhat close (maybe a bit worse if gun to my head) to 6z

[LP08]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

And the NAM is weird cause the wave itself is a bit more stretched but the vorticity behind it is a bit more N/S oriented so probably be somewhat close (maybe a bit worse if gun to my head) to 6z

Yeah, a bit better some ways and a bit worse in others, so probably a wash.

[yoda]

Pretty decent snow falling at 48 over @Bob Chill

[LP08]

Heights out front may allow for a more northward push of precip, through 48.

[yoda]

Nice hit for EZF to RIC folk

[yoda]

Gets some -SN into DC metro by 54... but most of the good stuff is in C VA.

[LP08]

3k similar and south.  

[yoda]

S MD into C VA win for NAM Twins on 12z suite

[yoda]

 

[stormtracker]

Well, the Euro shows the max possibilites, NAM in the middel, coming north a bit and GFS...whiff to the south.   Sigh

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

S MD into C VA win for NAM Twins on 12z suite

@usedtoberejoices

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Close enough got time for the shift to euro like solution. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Close enough got time for the shift to euro like solution. 

If only there was a bit more southern stream juice.

[stormtracker]

Trends are certainly better on the NAM.  We're def in the hunt for some of the better stuff

[WxUSAF]

 

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Pretty decent snow falling at 48 over @Bob Chill

I'm not feelin a nam like solution with qpf but I do like all guidance running a measurable stripe through my region.  Pretty sold on the 1-2" potential. Above that is possible but light events are what they are. H5 is pretty flat. 100% stoked that it's a daylight event with a start around sunrise. 

[Pityflakes]

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

Nice hit for EZF to RIC folk

Richmond is the new Westminster

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Trends are certainly better on the NAM.  We're def in the hunt for some of the better stuff

This kind of system reminds me a little of the two systems we got like 2 years ago I think that trending from nothing to a 3-5” event across the area. Both really showed up inside 48hrs. Let’s see if we can reel this one in. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

This kind of system reminds me a little of the two systems we got like 2 years ago I think that trending from nothing to a 3-5” event across the area. Both really showed up inside 48hrs. Let’s see if we can reel this one in. 

Difference is they both trended south from above. We need a north trend on this one. If that trough over northern Maine can move out a little quicker, we can reel it in.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Difference is they both trended south from above. We need a north trend on this one. If that trough over northern Maine can move out a little quicker, we can reel it in.

The storms I’m recalling moved north cause they were originally looking weak and flat then they amped up enough to hit us 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The storms I’m recalling moved north cause they were originally looking weak and flat then they amped up enough to hit us 

Are you talking about Jan 2024? From 3-5 days out they were progged to hit PA and ensembles only had us at an inch or less, then they shifted south to give us the max.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Are you talking about Jan 2024? From 3-5 days out they were progged to hit PA and ensembles only had us at an inch or less, then they shifted south to give us the max.

I can barely remember yesterday so maybe your right. I swear the storm I’m thinking of though was pretty much a whiff south till it beefed up enough but maybe I’m just imagining things. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I can barely remember yesterday so maybe your right. I swear the storm I’m thinking of though was pretty much a whiff south till it beefed up enough but maybe I’m just imagining things. 

I think you both are talking about how the euro nailed Sandy

[soadforecasterx]

This past storm trended more amped all the way up until the storm. 

[LP08]

ICON looks similar to the NAM precip distribution wise.