Panic Room 25-26

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm at 5" seasonal total in NW Baltimore County. At this point, I'll be surprised if I exceed a foot for seasonal snowfall. Sure it's a La Nina, but the base state over the past decade seems to have become extremely hostile to snow south of Mason-Dixon.

I'm at 3.5". Haven't hit 20" for a season since 2020-21.

I average high 20s up here northern Washington county 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm at 5" seasonal total in NW Baltimore County. At this point, I'll be surprised if I exceed a foot for seasonal snowfall. Sure it's a La Nina, but the base state over the past decade seems to have become extremely hostile to snow south of Mason-Dixon.

And the thing is there doesn't seem to be a reason! I mean it hasn't been warmth that's been the culprit...it's just the precip slamming on the brakes from Baltimore north. And I have yet to hear a satisfactory answer as to why that has happened more frequently than I can remember. It can't just be "bad luck", can it? I have problems accepting that, lol because it's like something in the atmosphere is doing it.

I never remember being fringed south as many times as I have been over the last decade. This is why even if the fantasy runs for an overrunning potential turn out to have legs...I'm worried about it not reaching north enough to avoid the fringe. But maybe with enough juice we can finally get a good hit.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And the thing is there doesn't seem to be a reason! I mean it hasn't been warmth that's been the culprit...it's just the precip slamming on the brakes from Baltimore north. And I have yet to hear a satisfactory answer as to why that has happened more frequently than I can remember. It can't just be "bad luck", can it? I have problems accepting that, lol because it's like something in the atmosphere is doing it.

I never remember being fringed south as many times as I have been over the last decade. This is why even if the fantasy runs for an overrunning potential turn out to have legs...I'm worried about it not reaching north enough to avoid the fringe. But maybe with enough juice we can finally get a good hit.

Trigger Warning:

I'm going to be honest, I thoroughly believe it's climate change. The oceans are warming, especially the Pacific. Formerly marginal patterns are now outright hostile. This translates to our once marginal events where it's be 30°-32° and a Coating - 2", are now 35°-37° and rain. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Trigger Warning:

I'm going to be honest, I thoroughly believe it's climate change. The oceans are warming, especially the Pacific. Fornerly marginal patterns are now outright hostile. This translates to our once marginal events where it's be 30°-32° and a Coating - 2", are now 35°-37° and rain. 

They’re talking about different setups than that. Even with cooperative temps the precip hits a brick wall somewhere in the 95 corridor.

[bncho]

If climate change keeps accelerating, DC winters will start to look like winters in Columbia, SC. IMO we might have one more snowy period when the next +PDO phase occurs—just because of the warmer waters (and hence increased precip) it'll probably break tons of records, maybe there'll be a 3' historic blizzard. Afterwards, though, around ~2040, I dunno, man.

[NorthArlington101]

On 1/9/2026 at 6:51 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

@Jiwanna crash out with me? I think we miss both storms 

This guy is smart. Good thing he’s all in on Jan 23-25.

[JenkinsJinkies]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

Afterwards, though, around ~2040

Climo in the metros will very likely be in the single digits.

[Eskimo Joe]

21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Climo in the metros will very likely be in the single digits.

Yea its entire possible in the next decade we reset to 5"-10" regional snowfall climo. El Ninos will just become cold rain winter.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Trigger Warning:

I'm going to be honest, I thoroughly believe it's climate change. The oceans are warming, especially the Pacific. Formerly marginal patterns are now outright hostile. This translates to our once marginal events where it's be 30°-32° and a Coating - 2", are now 35°-37° and rain. 

But that doesn't explain the precip problems though...how is it that south of Baltimore is doing better when it has been cold enough to snow? I don't get the cut-off that has happened here...that ain't because of temperature is it?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea its entire possible in the next decade we reset to 5"-10" regional snowfall climo. El Ninos will just become cold rain winter.

I still don't think we're at the "permanently lost the ability to have 1996,2003,2016 style storms" point yet. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

They’re talking about different setups than that. Even with cooperative temps the precip hits a brick wall somewhere in the 95 corridor.

Exactly. DC having better snow than Baltimore north since 2019 makes no sense

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I still don't think we're at the "permanently lost the ability to have 1996,2003,2016 style storms" point yet. 

I don't either. And to tell you the truth...the last two years have shown it can still be cold enough to snow. Our fails haven't been because it's too warm (or perhaps that's selective memory, lol). I mean even the threat this week isn't at risk of failing because it's too warm...just little moisture!

[bncho]

22 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I still don't think we're at the "permanently lost the ability to have 1996,2003,2016 style storms" point yet. 

Of course. As our climate gets warmer it'll pave the way for more juiced systems. There will likely be a winter storm that far exceeds those types of storms in the next 15 years. After that, though, the climate will warm so much that any juiced up event will have the heaviest precipitation be rain, rather than snow. Then, no matter how juiced up the system is, we will not get those big winter storms, and would need an intense cold push to time up with a wave for 3-5", max 6-12".

[Heisy]

If the Euro Ai doesn’t show a snowstorm under 144 hours, it ain’t happening. One of my new life rules.


.

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

If the Euro Ai doesn’t show a snowstorm under 144 hours, it ain’t happening. One of my new life rules.


.

Has that really been the case lately?

[WxUSAF]

7 hours ago, Heisy said:

If the Euro Ai doesn’t show a snowstorm under 144 hours, it ain’t happening. One of my new life rules.


.

 

7 hours ago, bncho said:

Has that really been the case lately?

I think it bounces around as much as anything in mid and long range, but it’s pretty deadly inside D5

[RevWarReenactor]

New extended forecast: After the 2 non events later this week and weekend. It will get cold. People will be saying "end of January could be great" but as the days tick on, no threats will materialize. The cold won't last. We will torch some days. Last week in January we will have essentially shut out this month as per usual in the MA. Minus a dusting or two.

But people will be saying, "Valentines day, yep, that is the period to watch".

Remember this post. 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I still don't think we're at the "permanently lost the ability to have 1996,2003,2016 style storms" point yet. 

I think we're at the point where that's all we'll get. It will take a significant alignment to get a warning level snowfall, and that'll be it for the winter. Just like 2016 - statistically it was an above average snowfall winter, but winter only lasted 5 days. 

[dailylurker]

56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think we're at the point where that's all we'll get. It will take a significant alignment to get a warning level snowfall, and that'll be it for the winter. Just like 2016 - statistically it was an above average snowfall winter, but winter only lasted 5 days. 

Winter have ALWAYS sucked here. This is absolutely nothing new. I've been here my entire life. Last winter was a great winter. I had 3 weeks of winter last year. The year before I had 11 days of winter (below freezing with snowpack). It only happens every few years on average. This year probably won't have any period of winter since the past 2 did. I suggest people travel. I know.. it's not the same. I suggest renting a house and staying for a week or more. I did that and it was almost like snow at home. 

[gopper]

From here on out, I will follow the sage, "Ji".  His word is always true!  "The model that shows the least snow always wins."  I will only focus on the model with the least, then I will not be disappointed!