E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z AIFS would be a certified banger for Philly. Surface temps hover around 10-14° as you squeeze 1-1.5" of QPF into this cold dome.

Ratio City!

[Mikeymac5306]

35 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z AIFS would be a certified banger for Philly. Surface temps hover around 10-14° as you squeeze 1-1.5" of QPF into this cold dome.

If that warm air mixes in we could have a 1994 redux.  Ugh. 

 

I was commenting on what Ralph Wiggum posted. 

[Duca892]

AI’s seem to love a snowstorm up here 

[Newman]

15 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

If that warm air mixes in we could have a 1994 redux.  Ugh. 

 

I was commenting on what Ralph Wiggum posted. 

Details to be sorted out later, the good news is it's looking highly likely that someone along the East Coast will get a storm this coming weekend. Models will waffle north and south all week. But tbh, I'm feeling really confident for areas I-80 south. These things almost always come north. As long as we don't see models trend towards holding back that energy in the SW, I think DC -> NYC is looking good

[JTA66]

Gonna be a long week, ain’t it?

13F

[Heisy]

Gonna be a long week, ain’t it?
13F

This is the most nerve racking part of the hobby, we’re at that day 6 range with a potential MECS in the cards. Been years since we had a potential event like this. Here, we, go


.

[Kevin Reilly]

Welp I’m at a half tank oil with a 240 gallon tank.  I ordered 100 gallons today in the realization we have a 5” snow pack we are likely heading to the single digits tonight and looking towards next weekend if the AI Euro is correct 10”+ more of snow and ridiculous -3 temps I’ll have to crank the furnace up to prevent the oil line from freezing.

Just thought I would share keep the thermostat up if you have oil when temps go below 10 degrees otherwise you run the risk of freezing the line especially if you havd an older tank with low oil water sinks to the bottom of the tank freezing the line.  No oil in pi no heat and you damage your furnace system.

Get ready I think it’s coming! 

[JTA66]

Not saying anything will happen this weekend. Perhaps the suppressed look is correct and we end up high & dry.

But looking back, the 2016 storm, PDII, the ‘96 blizzard and many other MESC were all initially modeled to miss us to the south. 

[Violentweatherfan]

13 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Not saying anything will happen this weekend. Perhaps the suppressed look is correct and we end up high & dry.

But looking back, the 2016 storm, PDII, the ‘96 blizzard and many other MESC were all initially modeled to miss us to the south. 

PDII was forecast to be a hit by five days out. Anyway, the MJO will be moving into phase 7 and the NAO will be somewhat negative. I don’t see any blocking. I’d like to see the the cold air mass dig a little deeper and we’d be in business