Lucy Pull Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago GEFS a little more amplified. Operational was on the amped and western side of ensembles. A small cluster of members very close to operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Other than the EURO/EUROAI I believe almost everything trended better at 12z and GFS continued that at 18z. It’s certainly trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Gfs would be close to an all timer in 30 years living by the beaches. Desperately need the euro to show support for even a moderate hit at this stage and then I’ll really believe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Euro ai was wise but the regular euro improved up stairs.lets hope we can build on this momentum we built up today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago 18z Euro doesn’t give us what we want but it improved quite a bit over 12z at both H5 and the surface. Tonight’s 0z runs will be very interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 18z euro a huge positive step towards gfs/cmc. I just hope it’s not an off run hiccup. If we build off it at 00z we’re in the game. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Still needs a lot it seems, but we still have about a 100hrs to go yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago I mean, even as is, much of SE PA gets a light 1-3" snow from the H5 pass on the Euro. I don't think there's a single model that is a complete whiff. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system: The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation. You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Got a shower moving through, 39F. Been awhile since I’ve heard rain falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take. It’s crazy how so many people are always surprised when it snows well into March. Yes it’s not meteorological winter anymore, but historically it’s a snowier month than December. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: It’s crazy how so many people are always surprised when it snows well into March. Yes it’s not meteorological winter anymore, but historically it’s a snowier month than December. Why is that? Nobody is surprised about a thunderstorm in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 5 minutes ago, BBasile said: Why is that? Nobody is surprised about a thunderstorm in September. Sun angle is much higher than in December which makes it feel warmer and more like spring. That’s my guess anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Sun angle is much higher than in December which makes it feel warmer and more like spring. That’s my guess anyway. Sun Angle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Hurricane Schwartz a short while ago says we lost this one way south and wont curve fast enough to hit us. Claims there is virtually no model support at all for a high impact storm. All guidance is clustered Hatteras and south with the surface low. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hurricane Schwartz a short while ago says we lost this one way south and wont curve fast enough to hit us. Claims there is virtually no model support at all for a high impact storm. All guidance is clustered Hatteras and south with the surface low. I’m with Hurricane. I see a very clear STJ but clearly looking over water vapor maps to me looks pretty progressive eastward and zonal especially the southern branch and I’d suppose northern jet in time once that ridge flattens out in the mid west mountain west. I’m just not in the big snowstorm camp at this time either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago I think our best bet is with the inverted trough feature that most models are picking up on. The ICON showed a region-wide 1-3” from it. We’ll see what the other models do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago Well the GFS certainly isn't backing down. 1-2 feet south of Philly, 6-12" up to the Lehigh Valley. Not really buying it right now but it's nice to at least have a shred of hope remaining. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 18 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Well the GFS certainly isn't backing down. 1-2 feet south of Philly, 6-12" up to the Lehigh Valley. Not really buying it right now but it's nice to at least have a shred of hope remaining. As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminIshed capacity IN THE MESO'S----LET IT PLAY OUT FOLKS. I AGREE THAT 6-12" SEEMS PLAUSIBLE --I AM GETTING BLUE IN THE FACE FROM POSTING THIS IN THE LAST WEEK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago Tonight’s model scorecard so far: Big storm: GFS Plowable event: Canadian Nuisance event: ICON Miss/flurries: UKMET, probably the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Tonight’s model scorecard so far: Big storm: GFS Plowable event: Canadian Nuisance event: ICON Miss/flurries: UKMET, probably the NAM Add the Euro to the “nuisance event” category. It just doesn’t want to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 5 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Add the Euro to the “nuisance event” category. It just doesn’t want to budge. Its even worse than 18z after some positives earlier in the run. It might be struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago …AI euro MUCH improved‼️‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago These are excellent trends on the last 4 GEFS runs. We need to continue to see these ticks or at least a hold over the next day or two. A big thing is that ULL off the West Coast which needs to keep backing up off the coast to allow the downstream ridge to back west as well. More spacing between our 50/50 and East Coast trough too is a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Taking a combo of everything I would put it out there that the Lehigh Valley area is maybe in the 1-2in range with maybe 2-4in around Philly. Not that amped about this after half decent trending yesterday. EURO absolutely refusing to budge blows hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6z GFS is the best run since the Canadian a few days ago. Wow! Tucks it right into the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS man is so close to being an absolute nuke for all it remains consistent with a 6-12in storm from LV to Philly and BOMB in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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