Lucy Pull Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago GEFS a little more amplified. Operational was on the amped and western side of ensembles. A small cluster of members very close to operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Other than the EURO/EUROAI I believe almost everything trended better at 12z and GFS continued that at 18z. It’s certainly trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Gfs would be close to an all timer in 30 years living by the beaches. Desperately need the euro to show support for even a moderate hit at this stage and then I’ll really believe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Euro ai was wise but the regular euro improved up stairs.lets hope we can build on this momentum we built up today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 18z Euro doesn’t give us what we want but it improved quite a bit over 12z at both H5 and the surface. Tonight’s 0z runs will be very interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 18z euro a huge positive step towards gfs/cmc. I just hope it’s not an off run hiccup. If we build off it at 00z we’re in the game. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Still needs a lot it seems, but we still have about a 100hrs to go yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I mean, even as is, much of SE PA gets a light 1-3" snow from the H5 pass on the Euro. I don't think there's a single model that is a complete whiff. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system: The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation. You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Got a shower moving through, 39F. Been awhile since I’ve heard rain falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take. It’s crazy how so many people are always surprised when it snows well into March. Yes it’s not meteorological winter anymore, but historically it’s a snowier month than December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: It’s crazy how so many people are always surprised when it snows well into March. Yes it’s not meteorological winter anymore, but historically it’s a snowier month than December. Why is that? Nobody is surprised about a thunderstorm in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, BBasile said: Why is that? Nobody is surprised about a thunderstorm in September. Sun angle is much higher than in December which makes it feel warmer and more like spring. That’s my guess anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Sun angle is much higher than in December which makes it feel warmer and more like spring. That’s my guess anyway. Sun Angle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hurricane Schwartz a short while ago says we lost this one way south and wont curve fast enough to hit us. Claims there is virtually no model support at all for a high impact storm. All guidance is clustered Hatteras and south with the surface low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hurricane Schwartz a short while ago says we lost this one way south and wont curve fast enough to hit us. Claims there is virtually no model support at all for a high impact storm. All guidance is clustered Hatteras and south with the surface low. I’m with Hurricane. I see a very clear STJ but clearly looking over water vapor maps to me looks pretty progressive eastward and zonal especially the southern branch and I’d suppose northern jet in time once that ridge flattens out in the mid west mountain west. I’m just not in the big snowstorm camp at this time either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago I think our best bet is with the inverted trough feature that most models are picking up on. The ICON showed a region-wide 1-3” from it. We’ll see what the other models do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 29 minutes ago Author Share Posted 29 minutes ago Well the GFS certainly isn't backing down. 1-2 feet south of Philly, 6-12" up to the Lehigh Valley. Not really buying it right now but it's nice to at least have a shred of hope remaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago 18 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Well the GFS certainly isn't backing down. 1-2 feet south of Philly, 6-12" up to the Lehigh Valley. Not really buying it right now but it's nice to at least have a shred of hope remaining. As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminIshed capacity IN THE MESO'S----LET IT PLAY OUT FOLKS. I AGREE THAT 6-12" SEEMS PLAUSIBLE --I AM GETTING BLUE IN THE FACE FROM POSTING THIS IN THE LAST WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 5 minutes ago Author Share Posted 5 minutes ago Tonight’s model scorecard so far: Big storm: GFS Plowable event: Canadian Nuisance event: ICON Miss/flurries: UKMET, probably the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now