E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Lucy Pull]

GEFS a little more amplified.

Operational was on the amped and western side of ensembles. A small cluster of members very close to operational. 

[Duca892]

Other than the EURO/EUROAI I believe almost everything trended better at 12z and GFS continued that at 18z. It’s certainly trying 

[coastal front]

Gfs would be close to an all timer in 30 years living by the beaches. Desperately need the euro to show support for even a moderate hit at this stage and then I’ll really believe 

[coastal front]

Euro ai was wise but the regular euro improved up stairs.lets hope we can build on this momentum we built up today lol

[LVblizzard]

18z Euro doesn’t give us what we want but it improved quite a bit over 12z at both H5 and the surface. Tonight’s 0z runs will be very interesting.

[Heisy]

18z euro a huge positive step towards gfs/cmc. I just hope it’s not an off run hiccup. If we build off it at 00z we’re in the game.

[Duca892]

Still needs a lot it seems, but we still have about a 100hrs to go yet

[Newman]

I mean, even as is, much of SE PA gets a light 1-3" snow from the H5 pass on the Euro. I don't think there's a single model that is a complete whiff.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system:

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system:

 

The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation.

You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take.

[BBasile]

[JTA66]

Got a shower moving through, 39F. Been awhile since I’ve heard rain falling.

[LVblizzard]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take.

It’s crazy how so many people are always surprised when it snows well into March. Yes it’s not meteorological winter anymore, but historically it’s a snowier month than December.

[BBasile]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

It’s crazy how so many people are always surprised when it snows well into March. Yes it’s not meteorological winter anymore, but historically it’s a snowier month than December.

Why is that?  Nobody is surprised about a thunderstorm in September.  

[LVblizzard]

5 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Why is that?  Nobody is surprised about a thunderstorm in September.  

Sun angle is much higher than in December which makes it feel warmer and more like spring. That’s my guess anyway.

[BBasile]

3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Sun angle is much higher than in December which makes it feel warmer and more like spring. That’s my guess anyway.

Sun Angle...