E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wow...a little messy with the ull and sw interaction but so close to a much bigger hit! 

[MickeyTim6533]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GFS is another hit....keeps the trend going and makes this a trackabke event still.

my bad, I jumped the gun. sorry still learning

[Physicsteve]

Gefs?

[Superstorm]

Wow...a little messy with the ull and sw interaction but so close to a much bigger hit! 

Very close to a powder keg


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[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Gefs?

Better pna spike, better digging of the sw vs 12z. Smoothed surface mean map is meh. But 500mb slightly improved.

[Ralph Wiggum]

18z aifs...

[Ralph Wiggum]

A damn shame this will change before the weekend. But this is absolute perfection. Enjoy:

[Duca892]

DT again keeps hating on this one saying the pattern doesn’t fit 

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

DT again keeps hating on this one saying the pattern doesn’t fit 

Aifs is likely the ceiling for this one imo. In some regard, I do agree with Dave. An 18z gfs seems most probable...a little less digging with the sw and a more progressive system like we have seen much of the winter. Still a respectable snowfall. But as I noted and Heisy as well earlier today, some of the more progressive solutions on the models are not far at all from a bomb that gets captured (see ICON and aifs) and goes from respectable to MECS/HECS. Too early to say one way or the other....alot of moving pieces in play.

[LVblizzard]

18z Euro at least has the storm off the coast which it didn’t have at 12z. Progress.

[RedSky]

28 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

DT again keeps hating on this one saying the pattern doesn’t fit 

Because no snow for Richmond. Their season kaput

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

18z Euro at least has the storm off the coast which it didn’t have at 12z. Progress.

Eps progress

[Snowguy66]

DT is a total loser.  I've watched him over the years and he's been wrong so many times.   I'm not biting on this storm yet because it's still a week away and I'm not sure it's favorable for a big storm.  The best thing going for the storm is when DT says it's not gonna happen.  He has a tendency to be wrong.  

[Albedoman]

7 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

DT is a total loser.  I've watched him over the years and he's been wrong so many times.   I'm not biting on this storm yet because it's still a week away and I'm not sure it's favorable for a big storm.  The best thing going for the storm is when DT says it's not gonna happen.  He has a tendency to be wrong.  

I usually, I  do not say much about this guy as he always jumps on board at the last minute with hand drawn maps and makes grossly inaccurate long range forecasts. Ralph Wiggum and LV Blizzard  has him beat by miles. Anything DT says now, take with a grain of salt.  I been reading this guys posts, for 10+ years and  I believe  Ji  from the MA forum more than this DT.  As far as  LR  models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity, especially with qpf amounts, usually cut  by 25% or more.  This dam reliable LR prediction pattern destroyed my latest prediction on last nights storm where I thought we could get 6+ inches of snow and only got 2-3 inches here in the LV (over ten days ago.) Lets hope the MECS sticks around this time. A separate thread should not be started until Friday evenings  Meso runs - anything before then will jinx it. You are warned

[anthonyweather]

Aifs is likely the ceiling for this one imo. In some regard, I do agree with Dave. An 18z gfs seems most probable...a little less digging with the sw and a more progressive system like we have seen much of the winter. Still a respectable snowfall. But as I noted and Heisy as well earlier today, some of the more progressive solutions on the models are not far at all from a bomb that gets captured (see ICON and aifs) and goes from respectable to MECS/HECS. Too early to say one way or the other....alot of moving pieces in play.

HECS needs to be retired from the vocabulary. Should only be used in post storm analysis


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[Heisy]

Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match

@brooklynwx99 posted this in another thread earlier this evening.

“this speaks for itself... AIFS-ENS is very similar to Feb 21. not advertising impacts like that, obviously, but it's becoming clear that this setup holds high end potential. we'll see how things trend in the coming days, but man that is uncanny”

[Heisy]

00z AIGFS another trend SE with weaker primary, almost a blizzard this run. One or two more ticks SE

[RedSky]

Gfs and cmc on board

Storm hits like the day after my almost five week pack melts away

[Heisy]

Sweeping 00z suite so far… euro next?!

[Heisy]

[wasnow215]

4 hours ago, RedSky said:

Because no snow for Richmond. Their season kaput

Actually there is

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Sweeping 00z suite so far… euro next?!

Ukie !

[RedSky]

Euro gone fishing to the Flemish cap

[Duca892]

GFS with 8-12in for many. Once again asking the EURO to show anything this afternoon lol

[Duca892]

Believe tomorrow at 12z we are essentially at or slightly under 100hrs.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, Heisy said:

00z AIGFS another trend SE with weaker primary, almost a blizzard this run. One or two more ticks SE

We did it 6z bud....we did it

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We did it 6z bud....we did it

 

[Duca892]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Ralph if you don’t mind me asking do you think eliminating any kind of suppression is a good call right now?

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Ralph if you don’t mind me asking do you think eliminating any kind of suppression is a good call right now?

No i do not. Still too early imho. However, I am leaning against suppression. If anything...progressive system missing a full phase-capture is more a concern imo based on seasonal patterns and the Euro deterministic still sends up a red flag. Could see this hammering coastal zones and just grazing west of i95. That is our most likely 'fail' scenario.