Ralph Wiggum Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Wow...a little messy with the ull and sw interaction but so close to a much bigger hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS is another hit....keeps the trend going and makes this a trackabke event still. my bad, I jumped the gun. sorry still learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Wow...a little messy with the ull and sw interaction but so close to a much bigger hit! Very close to a powder keg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Physicsteve said: Gefs? Better pna spike, better digging of the sw vs 12z. Smoothed surface mean map is meh. But 500mb slightly improved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 18z aifs... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago A damn shame this will change before the weekend. But this is absolute perfection. Enjoy: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago DT again keeps hating on this one saying the pattern doesn’t fit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Duca892 said: DT again keeps hating on this one saying the pattern doesn’t fit Aifs is likely the ceiling for this one imo. In some regard, I do agree with Dave. An 18z gfs seems most probable...a little less digging with the sw and a more progressive system like we have seen much of the winter. Still a respectable snowfall. But as I noted and Heisy as well earlier today, some of the more progressive solutions on the models are not far at all from a bomb that gets captured (see ICON and aifs) and goes from respectable to MECS/HECS. Too early to say one way or the other....alot of moving pieces in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 18z Euro at least has the storm off the coast which it didn’t have at 12z. Progress. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Duca892 said: DT again keeps hating on this one saying the pattern doesn’t fit Because no snow for Richmond. Their season kaput Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 18z Euro at least has the storm off the coast which it didn’t have at 12z. Progress. Eps progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago DT is a total loser. I've watched him over the years and he's been wrong so many times. I'm not biting on this storm yet because it's still a week away and I'm not sure it's favorable for a big storm. The best thing going for the storm is when DT says it's not gonna happen. He has a tendency to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: DT is a total loser. I've watched him over the years and he's been wrong so many times. I'm not biting on this storm yet because it's still a week away and I'm not sure it's favorable for a big storm. The best thing going for the storm is when DT says it's not gonna happen. He has a tendency to be wrong. I usually, I do not say much about this guy as he always jumps on board at the last minute with hand drawn maps and makes grossly inaccurate long range forecasts. Ralph Wiggum and LV Blizzard has him beat by miles. Anything DT says now, take with a grain of salt. I been reading this guys posts, for 10+ years and I believe Ji from the MA forum more than this DT. As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity, especially with qpf amounts, usually cut by 25% or more. This dam reliable LR prediction pattern destroyed my latest prediction on last nights storm where I thought we could get 6+ inches of snow and only got 2-3 inches here in the LV (over ten days ago.) Lets hope the MECS sticks around this time. A separate thread should not be started until Friday evenings Meso runs - anything before then will jinx it. You are warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Aifs is likely the ceiling for this one imo. In some regard, I do agree with Dave. An 18z gfs seems most probable...a little less digging with the sw and a more progressive system like we have seen much of the winter. Still a respectable snowfall. But as I noted and Heisy as well earlier today, some of the more progressive solutions on the models are not far at all from a bomb that gets captured (see ICON and aifs) and goes from respectable to MECS/HECS. Too early to say one way or the other....alot of moving pieces in play.HECS needs to be retired from the vocabulary. Should only be used in post storm analysis . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: Ha over on discord I said the H5 sort of reminded me of Jan 31-Feb 1 2021. Idk what it was, some of the model runs had the same look to them as that one. Someone on Philly discord posted the H5 and it’s almost a perfect match @brooklynwx99 posted this in another thread earlier this evening. “this speaks for itself... AIFS-ENS is very similar to Feb 21. not advertising impacts like that, obviously, but it's becoming clear that this setup holds high end potential. we'll see how things trend in the coming days, but man that is uncanny” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 00z AIGFS another trend SE with weaker primary, almost a blizzard this run. One or two more ticks SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gfs and cmc on board Storm hits like the day after my almost five week pack melts away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago Sweeping 00z suite so far… euro next?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago 4 hours ago, RedSky said: Because no snow for Richmond. Their season kaput Actually there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 35 minutes ago Share Posted 35 minutes ago 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: Sweeping 00z suite so far… euro next?! Ukie ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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