E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[BBasile]

Temps this cold without any weather suck.  But they can be refreshing, and sometimes, beautiful.  And a -6°F wind chill is always better than a treadmill.  lol.  

[Albedoman]

3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Also flood guy and drift guy

Its time you guys know who I really am. I have hidden my past experiences but you will hear much more about me in the upcoming months as I am dealing directly with data centers in municipalities. 

 

MY name Mike Siegel  aka the "albedoman -drought guy whatever" . I chose albedoman because my Uncle had to deal directly with the albedo effect when forecasting the potential for forest fires and temp regimes studies in the western US.  He wrote several papers on this topic as well as others and at one time directed the entire Western Region of NOAA. This person  underlined below is  my  weather mentor and also is my Uncle. He is 83.

I have degree in physical geography- concentration in atmospheric sciences and environmental science (not too many meteorology schols back in the late 70's) with  a minor in geology and post graduate work in satellite imagery with a ton of hours and certifications in Environmental science and urban planning. I was also an air traffic controller in the Navy. My resume is several pages long and have written magazine articles and publish papers at Penn State dealing with stormwater issues involving bioengineering and recently authored Lowhill Township's Zoning and Land Development Ordinances as their planning consultant.  I have been around the block.

I recently came out of retirement in 2025 to serve as the Township Manager of Lowhill Township, Lehigh County by accepting an offer I just could not refuse. I did retire in 2010  from Lower Providence Township in Montgomery County as their Director of Planning and Development and was the Building Codes  directer and zoning officer.

David E. Olsen was a meteorologist associated with the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). Historical U.S. government and NOAA technical documents list him as the author of meteorological forecast reports such as “Forecasting Maximum Temperatures at Helena, Montana” dating back to the late 1960s, indicating he worked in operational forecasting and climate-related analysis for the Weather Service. Individuals like Olsen typically served as Meteorologist or Meteorologist in Charge at an NWS Weather Forecast Office, producing forecast guidance and contributing to regional temperature forecasts and related climatological studies.

 

[RedSky]

Anybody else hit with wind the last half hour, one gust was so strong it had the house creaking

Alien mothership?

[Voyager]

8 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Its time you guys know who I really am. I have hidden my past experiences but you will hear much more about me in the upcoming months as I am dealing directly with data centers in municipalities. 

 

MY name Mike Siegel  aka the "albedoman -drought guy whatever" . I chose albedoman because my Uncle had to deal directly with the albedo effect when forecasting the potential for forest fires and temp regimes studies in the western US.  He wrote several papers on this topic as well as others and at one time directed the entire Western Region of NOAA. This person  underlined below is  my  weather mentor and also is my Uncle. He is 83.

I have degree in physical geography- concentration in atmospheric sciences and environmental science (not too many meteorology schols back in the late 70's) with  a minor in geology and post graduate work in satellite imagery with a ton of hours and certifications in Environmental science and urban planning. I was also an air traffic controller in the Navy. My resume is several pages long and have written magazine articles and publish papers at Penn State dealing with stormwater issues involving bioengineering and recently authored Lowhill Township's Zoning and Land Development Ordinances as their planning consultant.  I have been around the block.

I recently came out of retirement in 2025 to serve as the Township Manager of Lowhill Township, Lehigh County by accepting an offer I just could not refuse. I did retire in 2010  from Lower Providence Township in Montgomery County as their Director of Planning and Development and was the Building Codes  directer and zoning officer.

David E. Olsen was a meteorologist associated with the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). Historical U.S. government and NOAA technical documents list him as the author of meteorological forecast reports such as “Forecasting Maximum Temperatures at Helena, Montana” dating back to the late 1960s, indicating he worked in operational forecasting and climate-related analysis for the Weather Service. Individuals like Olsen typically served as Meteorologist or Meteorologist in Charge at an NWS Weather Forecast Office, producing forecast guidance and contributing to regional temperature forecasts and related climatological studies.

 

I drive through your township almost every day hauling spring water down to the plant in Fogelsville. Look for me in a rust orange colored Mack pulling a 6,200 gallon tanker.

[Nodriveslow]

6 hours ago, RedSky said:

Anybody else hit with wind the last half hour, one gust was so strong it had the house creaking

Alien mothership?

Yep, had a couple good gusts in NE Philly.

[Mikeymac5306]

I'm not sure what models Weather Sentry uses for their forecasting, but FWIW they are putting up 6"-10" for next Sunday. 

 

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

I'm not sure what models Weather Sentry uses for their forecasting, but FWIW they are putting up 6"-10" for next Sunday. 

 

Looks too warm from my eyes….

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Looks too warm from my eyes….

Agree. They just updated the forecast and backed off the totals big time. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Agree. They just updated the forecast and backed off the totals big time. 

More like a sleet/ice storm, but I'm not thinking too warm. However, I do think a 65+ high is highly likely during the first week to 10 days of March.

[Duca892]

Not trying to be "that" guy... but we are almost halfway through February.... time is slipping away quick

[Birds~69]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

More like a sleet/ice storm, but I'm not thinking too warm. However, I do think a 65+ high is highly likely during the first week to 10 days of March.

Thinking 75-80s with spotty 90s in highly urbanized areas…

[MickeyTim6533]

6 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Not trying to be "that" guy... but we are almost halfway through February.... time is slipping away quick

[The Iceman]

13 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Not trying to be "that" guy... but we are almost halfway through February.... time is slipping away quick

I'm above normal on the entire season so I don't know what's slipping away. If you can't be happy during this winter, time to move away no offense

[Duca892]

10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm above normal on the entire season so I don't know what's slipping away. If you can't be happy during this winter, time to move away no offense

Not indicating I am unhappy. Just observing the fact that days tend to start slipping away after Mid-February and before you know it it is spring lol 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Thinking 75-80s with spotty 90s in highly urbanized areas…

That's my thinking for April. We're in for a Top 10 warmest April, with lots of 75, 80 degree days.

[ChescoWx]

Today will set an all-time consecutive below freezing streak of 17 days for Chester County PA at a few stations including KMQS Airport, Atglen DEOS and West Grove DEOS. This breaks the old record of 16 days set from January 19, 1961 through February 3, 1961 at the Coatesville 1SW NWS Cooperative station. All locations should finally see temperatures break the freezing mark both tomorrow and Wednesday with highs in the 35-to-38-degree range. This is still a few degrees below our normal highs for mid-February. We turn colder again by Thursday and Friday with near or below freezing high temperatures returning. Snow/Ice or rain chances start to increase by Sunday.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Looks too warm from my eyes….

Mine as well.

[RedSky]

CMC next Monday is a January 25th light version

Ukie same ^^^

Euro Ai in the Carolina's and Virginia

GFS sucks at everything it does

 

 

[Violentweatherfan]

3 hours ago, Duca892 said:

Not trying to be "that" guy... but we are almost halfway through February.... time is slipping away quick

The MJO is going in the wrong direction too. Not sure how late February to mid March is gonna deliver. The only possible is if the MJO forecast is wrong

[RedSky]

ECM op is 50 miles north of the CMC and Ukie 

[Birds~69]

16 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Its time you guys know who I really am. I have hidden my past experiences but you will hear much more about me in the upcoming months as I am dealing directly with data centers in municipalities. 

 

MY name Mike Siegel  aka the "albedoman -drought guy whatever" . I chose albedoman because my Uncle had to deal directly with the albedo effect when forecasting the potential for forest fires and temp regimes studies in the western US.  He wrote several papers on this topic as well as others and at one time directed the entire Western Region of NOAA. This person  underlined below is  my  weather mentor and also is my Uncle. He is 83.

I have degree in physical geography- concentration in atmospheric sciences and environmental science (not too many meteorology schols back in the late 70's) with  a minor in geology and post graduate work in satellite imagery with a ton of hours and certifications in Environmental science and urban planning. I was also an air traffic controller in the Navy. My resume is several pages long and have written magazine articles and publish papers at Penn State dealing with stormwater issues involving bioengineering and recently authored Lowhill Township's Zoning and Land Development Ordinances as their planning consultant.  I have been around the block.

I recently came out of retirement in 2025 to serve as the Township Manager of Lowhill Township, Lehigh County by accepting an offer I just could not refuse. I did retire in 2010  from Lower Providence Township in Montgomery County as their Director of Planning and Development and was the Building Codes  directer and zoning officer.

David E. Olsen was a meteorologist associated with the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). Historical U.S. government and NOAA technical documents list him as the author of meteorological forecast reports such as “Forecasting Maximum Temperatures at Helena, Montana” dating back to the late 1960s, indicating he worked in operational forecasting and climate-related analysis for the Weather Service. Individuals like Olsen typically served as Meteorologist or Meteorologist in Charge at an NWS Weather Forecast Office, producing forecast guidance and contributing to regional temperature forecasts and related climatological studies.

 

I was thinking Mike Seidel from the weather channel at first till I smacked the cobwebs outta my brain.

You probably could be a red tagger if you upload your fancy degree paperwork stuff...

23F/Sunny

 

[The Iceman]

54 minutes ago, RedSky said:

CMC next Monday is a January 25th light version

Ukie same ^^^

Euro Ai in the Carolina's and Virginia

GFS sucks at everything it does

 

 

Ensembles in this range over any OP. However, ensembles argue more for a Euro AI solution imo. I don't see this one cutting if that ridging on the 500 MB is legit over NE canada. Now with that you risk a sheared out mess or squash. Cold air is also marginal. I don't know, there's a lot going against it. Seems like blocking either eases up north and we rain or it doesn't and it's squashed south again. I'd rather it cut than be squashed tbh, there would definitely be flooding issues next weekend if something like the euro OP plays out.

[RedSky]

10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Ensembles in this range over any OP. However, ensembles argue more for a Euro AI solution imo. I don't see this one cutting if that ridging on the 500 MB is legit over NE canada. Now with that you risk a sheared out mess or squash. Cold air is also marginal. I don't know, there's a lot going against it. Seems like blocking either eases up north and we rain or it doesn't and it's squashed south again. I'd rather it cut than be squashed tbh, there would definitely be flooding issues next weekend if something like the euro OP plays out.

Flood guy is here for just that contingency we good

I want to see 8" ice slabs everywhere like the worlds biggest jenga that happened in 96

 

[Birds~69]

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Flood guy is here for just that contingency we good

 

He’ll probably run in dual mode. Flood and ice jam guy….

25f

[RedSky]

12z euro even cuts a clipper to our south during the mental break badly needed week three mini mild up 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

45 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

The MJO is going in the wrong direction too. Not sure how late February to mid March is gonna deliver. The only possible is if the MJO forecast is wrong

Most of the rest of February looks good, if you're looking for cold air. The MJO is going to stay in Phase 3 from about 2/13 to 2/23. Around 3/1 (give or take a few days), the pattern flips warmer. I'll be shock if we don't get a temperature in the 60s during the first week of March.

[RedSky]

EPS looks good for Monday i think there is a 50% for the next winter storm

 

[LVblizzard]

The Sun-Mon storm looks more like a thread the needle type setup to me. We need enough cold air that precip remains all or mostly snow, but too strong of a cold air press suppresses the storm to the south. It's certainly possible but I don't think the chances are super high. Better chance of something north of I-78 IMO.

[Albedoman]

57 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I was thinking Mike Seidel from the weather channel at first till I smacked the cobwebs outta my brain.

You probably could be a red tagger if you upload your fancy degree paperwork stuff...

23F/Sunny

 

thanks,  maybe if I get time in the next few days I will