E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[The Iceman]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Man it’s freezing out. Absolutely brutal.

Anyway, for the 15th range threat. Just sticking with the euro Ai since imo it’s the best model at this range. Seems to me if the energy comes out too early it gets crushed, too late and we lose confluence over the area and it’s rain for the city.

We basically need the euro Ai progression, but with improved 50/50 setup. I’m confident there will be a storm, frozen? Eh

It’s the rebound storm. -NAO and ao are surging towards neutral around that time, like you said if the confluence holds we snow, and probably snow big. I will say the models have tended to overplay the weakening of the NAO and AO ridging in the long range all year long. This is the pattern change storm, I don’t expect any model to have a hold on it until at least mid week. I like the look on the Euro AI though and especially the ensembles in the 500 means.. we run the risk of raining but the pattern is ripe for a big juicy qpf storm which is well needed either way…

[Birds~69]

11F…winds blowing snow all around /off rooftops is relaxing.

[Ralph Wiggum]

13F here, and gusty. Ended with .2" snow past 18 hrs. 

In other news, I finally utilized the ignore feature on this site.

[Birds~69]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

13F here, and gusty. Ended with .2" snow past 18 hrs. 

In other news, I finally utilized the ignore feature on this site.

Thing is, you will still see that persons post if someone else quotes him/her….

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

Thing is, you will still see that persons post if someone else quotes him/her….

Just added last evenings snow to my signature and saw i am at 30.6" on the season. Still a tenth of an inch shy of what we saw by the airport for Blizzard 96 

[BBasile]

Getting nastier out there by the minute.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Temp down 3 degrees in last 25 mins. Sitting at 9F

[Birds~69]

Increasing winds starting to roll in...

[JTA66]

It wasn’t a HECS but moving my shovel to the back of the garage worked its magic again. OTOH, my shovel has spent the better part of the last decade there, so there’s that.

It’s slice open a taun-taun with your light saber and crawl inside cold, down to 9F.

[ChescoWx]

With our 1.3" of snow since yesterday here in EN we are up to 35.4" of snow for the season. This is almost at our average for an entire winter season of 35.5" The extreme cold warning continues until tomorrow at noon. Temperatures have fallen into the single digits across the area and will struggle to get much above 10 degrees with wind gusts as high as 55mph. Lows tonight will be within a couple degrees of zero and highs tomorrow into the mid-teens. We finally see a moderating trend with 4 climate stations across Chester County finally rising above freezing on Tuesday after a record setting 17 days below freezing. We might see some light freezing rain or rain on Wednesday as temperatures rise into the upper 30's. Models still hint at a storm possibility toward next weekend.

[Albedoman]

On 2/1/2026 at 7:11 PM, Albedoman said:

Pattern change  6-12"  2/14-17 time period 

 I am still on board with this prediction guys,  My biggest concern is really severe ice jamming and floods by March.  If this pattern even hints at relaxing and opening the Gulf of America with moisture, we are in some deep flooding shit folks with ice jammming.  Bridges may go down throughout the region and the folks on Adams Island on the Lehigh River in the LV, their homes will be destroyed  and or flooded.  The ice jams that I remeber while I was the Twp manager in Lower Mt Bethel Township, I saw mobile homes and cars 40 feet in the air  stuck in trees. Its going to be really really bad if we get a quick warmup with flooding rains after this pattern change, especially around the 22nd time period. 

[Birds~69]

Ice Jam guy!

9F/Gusty

[BBasile]

Gusts are still increasing.  Temp down to 12.6F with chills down to -5F.  

[Kevin Reilly]

Sunny windy NW 20-35 mph gusting to 45-50 10f humidity 35% dew point -3 windchill -13
 

picked up 0.20” of snow last night.

 

Total Snow Year: 25.80” 

[Birds~69]

When the Stop sign is frantically moving back/forth/side/side doing that flippy-floppy motion like it's having a seizure you know it's windy...

9F/highest gusts of the day

[Berks_SnowMan]

Doesn’t seem too windy outside of Reading, Pa right now. Was worse this morning.


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[Chief83]

Worcester, PA. Highest gust 37.8 mph. Lowest wind chill -9.7.  Brutal outside. 

[MickeyTim6533]

18 minutes ago, Berks_SnowMan said:

Doesn’t seem too windy outside of Reading, Pa right now. Was worse this morning.


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Really? im in Exeter township and we have 26 mph winds...with higher gusts