KamuSnow Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago A few flakes of snow here, 29°F. Made it to 35 here today, but didn't really lose any snowpack. We discussed taking a shot at sledding on the sleet pack later this week, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Nice Quagmire worthy 6Z run. I don't think there is any support for it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Nice Quagmire worthy 6Z run. I don't think there is any support for it though Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf. There is support for a storm on the other models. Whether we get what the GFS is putting out is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf. 500 MB on the EPS and GEFS screams thump to ice/rain imo but obviously a wide range of outcomes possible at this range. With the west based NAO block showing up in that timeframe, any storm is going to have difficulty cutting to our west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago That 14-16th threat has teleconnection support too... As me and Steve have been saying, many of our big ones historically come on the rebound of long duration -AO/-NAO/+PNA patterns but it still requires the right timing. I'm liking the long range threat though, definitely something to start tracking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Several of our climate stations that did not see temperatures above freezing continue to be on track to set a record streak of days below freezing (day #12 today) which would be day #17 on Monday the 9th. The next 2 days look to be our relative mildest with highs in the upper 20's to near 30. An arctic front arrives on Friday which may kick off snow squalls and snow showers that may result in some minor accumulations by Saturday morning. Behind the front the weekend looks frigid once again. We may again have a chance to see temperatures near or above freezing by next Tuesday. In looking ahead, we can't really see any meaningful breaks from what our to date significantly colder than normal winter. Plus, snow chances look to increase toward the Valentines/Presidents day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf. Cecily going kinda warm middle of the month (Valentines day). She's ruining everyone's mojo... 32F/Sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Sorry for the confusion. It was my weenie instincts taking over on a solid OP run this morning. I can't read the ENS runs as well as others so I lean on the OP model runs. I was wondering if the other model OP runs would verify like the GFS did as showing a true winter storm. The signal is definitely there as there will be "a" storm. Just don't know what else will be involved yet as it is a way away. All that being said. 12Z runs have a, or the storm in that time frame again. GFS kicks it right as it did with last weekend's event, and the CMC has a potential MECS brewing at the end of its OP run. ...and the Euro just said 'Hello gorgeous!" Carry on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Why aren't we jumping on chairs, shouting, screaming about our Friday mini blizzard which may add a inch, wind and a little thrill as the cold air arrives? I'm damn pumped for that one along w/the Superbowl... 32F/Sunny 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Why aren't we jumping on chairs, shouting, screaming about our Friday mini blizzard which may add a inch, wind and a little thrill as the cold air arrives? I'm damn pumped for that one along w/the Superbowl... 32F/Sunny Because the squall comes through between 3 and 6am Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It's been so freaking cold for so long that the big advertised mid month warmup is a return to seasonable temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Because the squall comes through between 3 and 6am Saturday morning I'll be up w/bells, whistles and spirits for this historic event!!! *Remember to nap accordingly... 32F/Sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Birds~69 said: I'll be up w/bells, whistles and spirits for this historic event!!! *Remember to nap accordingly... 32F/Sunny The one good impressive squall we had this winter passed through at 4:30am lol The weather doesn't want us to see good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, RedSky said: The one good impressive squall we had this winter passed through at 4:30am lol The weather doesn't want us to see good snow I think you may be incorrect about the squall timing...looks like mid-later afternoon, evening hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I think you may be incorrect about the squall timing...looks like mid-later afternoon, evening hours? It's not nailed down and there may not be one but if there is the timing will be at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's been so freaking cold for so long that the big advertised mid month warmup is a return to seasonable temps Yeah but that day in the mid 40s is going to feel like 70! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Todays euro doesn't hit 40F until the 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Long way out there, but it seems like models are hinting at two potential storm chances coming up: 2/11 and 2/15. Depending on how strong the first wave gets, it could dampen the flow and cause 2/15 to stay suppressed (ala 12z Euro AIFS). Everything will also depend on how strong the confluence holds across New England/southern Canada. Just first look seems like a SWFE would be favored with thump to ice/rain. Expect lots of changes until then 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Newman said: Long way out there, but it seems like models are hinting at two potential storm chances coming up: 2/11 and 2/15. Depending on how strong the first wave gets, it could dampen the flow and cause 2/15 to stay suppressed (ala 12z Euro AIFS). Everything will also depend on how strong the confluence holds across New England/southern Canada. Just first look seems like a SWFE would be favored with thump to ice/rain. Expect lots of changes until then Seasons pattern ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago 32F/Sunny, expected low 5F Nockamixon Feb 1st (Facebook) t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now