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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion


LVblizzard
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6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Nice Quagmire worthy 6Z run. 

I don't think there is any support for it though

Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf.

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf.

There is support for a storm on the other models.  Whether we get what the GFS is putting out is something else. 

 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf.

500 MB on the EPS and GEFS screams thump to ice/rain imo but obviously a wide range of outcomes possible at this range. With the west based NAO block showing up in that timeframe, any storm is going to have difficulty cutting to our west. 

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That 14-16th threat has teleconnection support too... 

nao.gefs.sprd2.png

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

 

pna.gefs.sprd2.png

 

As me and Steve have been saying, many of our big ones historically come on the rebound of long duration -AO/-NAO/+PNA patterns but it still requires the right timing. I'm liking the long range threat though, definitely something to start tracking. 

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Several of our climate stations that did not see temperatures above freezing continue to be on track to set a record streak of days below freezing (day #12 today) which would be day #17 on Monday the 9th. The next 2 days look to be our relative mildest with highs in the upper 20's to near 30. An arctic front arrives on Friday which may kick off snow squalls and snow showers that may result in some minor accumulations by Saturday morning. Behind the front the weekend looks frigid once again. We may again have a chance to see temperatures near or above freezing by next Tuesday. In looking ahead, we can't really see any meaningful breaks from what our to date significantly colder than normal winter. Plus, snow chances look to increase toward the Valentines/Presidents day weekend.

image.png.580af5461c035cf2894aa09d1cbbcfd0.pngimage.thumb.png.c3c6b443b0fddc09a521e7cbf3660eae.png

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