E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[KamuSnow]

A few flakes of snow here, 29°F. Made it to 35 here today, but didn't really lose any snowpack. We discussed taking a shot at sledding on the sleet pack later this week, lol.

[Mikeymac5306]

Nice Quagmire worthy 6Z run. 

I don't think there is any support for it though

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Nice Quagmire worthy 6Z run. 

I don't think there is any support for it though

Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf.

[MickeyTim6533]

[Mikeymac5306]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf.

There is support for a storm on the other models.  Whether we get what the GFS is putting out is something else. 

 

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just curious, how did you arrive at there is no support for the op run? Do you check the ens means first, then see if the op run pops anything? There is an extremely strong signal for something around the middle of the month tbf.

500 MB on the EPS and GEFS screams thump to ice/rain imo but obviously a wide range of outcomes possible at this range. With the west based NAO block showing up in that timeframe, any storm is going to have difficulty cutting to our west. 

[The Iceman]

That 14-16th threat has teleconnection support too... 

 

 

As me and Steve have been saying, many of our big ones historically come on the rebound of long duration -AO/-NAO/+PNA patterns but it still requires the right timing. I'm liking the long range threat though, definitely something to start tracking.