E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[The Iceman]

My 30 year average in Levittown was 22.3”. I would say 30” for DYL is not far off.

[The Iceman]

20 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Hey, just asking what if we get a couple of feet of snow out of this? Where are we gonna put it?

I was thinking this in Trenton today…absolute nightmare still! But other areas are really stacked high too. Another foot even and it’ll be really dangerous driving around. I saw dump trucks full of snow going somewhere, I know there’s a snow dump off Perry street in Trenton. Do they still dump it in the Delaware river? I think I remember that being a thing before.

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

My 30 year average in Levittown was 22.3”. I would say 30” for DYL is not far off.

Unfortunately there are no official tallies for small towns like doylestown perkasie and quakertown

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The record for the snowiest winter in Levittown is still 1957-58, correct?

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The record for the snowiest winter in Levittown is still 1957-58, correct?

Hm I have no idea, my dad’s records only go back to 1977, he started keeping track as a science project in high school and just kept with it… not really a weather nerd like me but he loves snow lol. In our combined tally of snow totals, 95-1996 was our snowiest winter at 75.6”. Do you happen to know what the tally for 57-58 was? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS held serve. Close call. Cutoff is brutal.

[mattinpa]

GFS didn’t quite round the corner enough for us but still kept hope going for sure. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

GFS didn’t quite round the corner enough for us but still kept hope going for sure. 

12z tomorrow was when things started to trend north last week. Let's see if we can reel this in. Ngl....it is so close to either being a hecs or a mere coastal graze. So close.

[RedSky]

Plenty of time 96 hours 

[RedSky]

Will be happy with a 2-4 or 3-5" topper

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z tomorrow was when things started to trend north last week. Let's see if we can reel this in. Ngl....it is so close to either being a hecs or a mere coastal graze. So close.

Crazy gradient. But just that tick, I went from 1 inch at 18z to 5” at 00z. Most of south jersey gets pummeled. I can’t stay up for the euro tn but encouraging that the gfs keeps improving…

 

[The Iceman]

CMC near miss, weird weird surface reflection though. Has like a triple barrel low at hour 96. Convective feedback?

[Violentweatherfan]

It’s not our storm folks 

[Albedoman]

without proper data sampling, this model watching is useless. The NYC forum posters are jumping of the Verazzano right now after tonights runs. If the 12Z models tomorrow do show some slight improvment, this will be a fish storm.  I would want to see the OZ NAM run  tommorrow night at 72 hours. IF the LP is at the benchmark then, game on. Going to bed

[Duca892]

2 hours ago, SNOWCREATURE1 said:

I know everybody is either depressed or biting their nails, so I thought I'd show this heartening tweet

https://x.com/HuffmanHeadsUp/status/2016378076901281901/photo/1

Stolen from our friends in MA forum. That’s uh quite the hill to be on when literally nothing is showing that at like 84hrs out lol

[MickeyTim6533]

6z south and east, the fold begins, not the start we wanted unfortunately 

[Duca892]

Yeaaaaa this one ain’t for us. You would need the mother load of drastic shifts to occur almost every single run with 0 steps backward from here on out after another GFS whiff. Lots of winter to go 

[MickeyTim6533]

2 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Yeaaaaa this one ain’t for us. You would need the mother load of drastic shifts to occur almost every single run with 0 steps backward from here on out after another GFS whiff. Lots of winter to go 

agree, not off to a good start. there's literally nothing pointing to this making the turn northwest. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

75% chance skirts part of our subforum s and e, 15% chance entire region missed completely,  10% chance major hit Philly and burbs. Thats the way I see it attm. Need some major changes at 12z and 18z.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Crazy gradient. But just that tick, I went from 1 inch at 18z to 5” at 00z. Most of south jersey gets pummeled. I can’t stay up for the euro tn but encouraging that the gfs keeps improving…

 

And just like that, a slight tick and we are now at 0 with shore points getting snow.

[Mikeymac5306]

I'll write the eulogy at 18Z

[The Iceman]

43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And just like that, a slight tick and we are now at 0 with shore points getting snow.

Euro brings snow into our area now

06z

00z

[Lucy Pull]

Too early to throw in the towel but leaning towards a scraper at most anywhere west of 95.
 

Need to see some steady changes with confluence, the kicker, or the ULL backing west or north soon for anything appreciable. 
 

Still think Philly to NYC could be in a decent spot for some snows. Wouldn’t take much on euro or gfs.

[LizardMafia]

Seems like hurricane hunters will be flying into the storm coming into the Pac NW later today.  

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[ChescoWx]

I could only find one Chester County station that fell to below zero this morning and that was our usual cold spot up in Warwick Township with a low of 2.6 below zero. Almost all spot saw lows in the single digits above zero. If anything, we get progressively colder the rest of this week with highs through Saturday several degrees lower than yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper teens with lows near zero to below. The potential weekend storm still looks like it will miss our area to the east toward the NJ shore but will need to be watched for any potential changes.

[ChescoWx]

11 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Anyone needs a break in between the models these guys are pretty good.

 

I watch this almost every night..

[Newman]

The models didn't trend as sharply as we needed them to last night tbh. This threat is not dead yet, but we're going to really need some dramatic shifts north with where the low closes off and the confluence over New England.

I think back to the system in the middle of this month that had the models sending NS energy way south and cutting off over the TN valley. Well it ended up cutting off over the Great Lakes... The models were too "dig" happy. Different setup here with the decaying block pushing everything south, but we'll see

[Violentweatherfan]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

The models didn't trend as sharply as we needed them to last night tbh. This threat is not dead yet, but we're going to really need some dramatic shifts north with where the low closes off and the confluence over New England.

I think back to the system in the middle of this month that had the models sending NS energy way south and cutting off over the TN valley. Well it ended up cutting off over the Great Lakes... The models were too "dig" happy. Different setup here with the decaying block pushing everything south, but we'll see

I watched a weather video last night and the synopsis was that the low isn’t wrapping up or phasing with the sub tropical jet therefore it’s as it is being pulled east 

[Violentweatherfan]

This is great discussion, but the info from late last night’s runs aren’t included 

 

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Euro brings snow into our area now

06z

00z

On the video I posted there is mention that the precipitation field should be more expansive. Yeah there will be sharp gradients but the field should be further west