E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[MickeyTim6533]

38 minutes ago, PhilsFanDrew said:

No we aren't.  The piece of energy that is responsible for this storm signal hasn't even made landfall in the US so models are basically guessing at this point until it can sample it.  

ocmd buried

[MickeyTim6533]

just not enough negative tilt yet

[Duca892]

So this run it just gets up to a certain spot and then just heads on out 

[Newman]

Verbatim, the storm occludes too far SE for the majority of SE PA. Again, if we get similar evolution but the shortwave doesn't dig as far south, this occludes right at our latitude and we get those massive totals that are currently depicted over Richmond. Need to see the Euro at least trend towards this,

[ChescoWx]

[mattinpa]

Just now, Duca892 said:

So this run it just gets up to a certain spot and then just heads on out 

At least it is definitely in the right direction. Today is a big day for seeing any trends. 

[ChescoWx]

2 feet up to AC on that run....several inches of snow back as far as Chesco

[Duca892]

It just looks weird I was getting HYPED seeing it. The Low literally just stalls. Heads due East, then South East, and then North East lmfao. 

[zenmsav6810]

 @Ralph Wiggum and the models have had this signal sniffed out for weeks. Someplace is getting a storm even if it is OTS. 

[JTA66]

A long way to go. Maybe it ends up being a whiff. But this is where I want the GFS at this stage.

[MickeyTim6533]

positive tilt on CMC, no go 

[The Iceman]

Man, there is nothing more that I want to do than watch models roll in all day, unfortunately it's my busiest week of the year with W-2's due out, and we're a day behind due to the snow. From the brief look at the ICON, GFS, and CMC, positive trend at 12z. Glancing blows but we are a longggggggggg way away from anything set in stone. 

[Mikeymac5306]

Baby steps.  

[coastal front]

CMC stills get close to a foot on the coast. We don’t want this to wrap up and occlude to far south so staying positive tilt a little longer could help those farther north.


.

[Chadzachadam]

13/30 GFS ensemble members were a big hit for SEPA. think this is kind of an all or nothing deal with the complex dynamics, although it is possible we could pick up a couple fluffy inches in some of the OTS scenarios. 

random question but any chance we get dry enough for some of the existing snowpack to sublimate this week? 

[MickeyTim6533]

EURO just said no go

[MickeyTim6533]

12 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

JB said this morning he's not giving up yet on the storm.

 

[Birds~69]

Patch knows I'm a weenie. Sends me stuff all the time like a little kid and candy.

NWS realizing there's some potential...  

[Lucy Pull]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Man, there is nothing more that I want to do than watch models roll in all day, unfortunately it's my busiest week of the year with W-2's due out, and we're a day behind due to the snow. From the brief look at the ICON, GFS, and CMC, positive trend at 12z. Glancing blows but we are a longggggggggg way away from anything set in stone. 

Agree, delicate setup.

Would like to see the ULL not dig as far south and trend negative a bit sooner. 
 

Climatologically speaking a storm of that magnitude as portrayed by the GFS in the South is extremely unlikely. Although anomalous setups can produce anomalous results.

 

[Newman]

Top 3 CIPS analogs this afternoon based on the 12z GFS:

1. Jan 2016

2. BDB 2010

3. Jan 1996

There's my weenie contribution for the day, because yes we have time to draw this back NW but the Euro remaining put doesn't inspire confidence.

[Duca892]

Are there any other time periods that are of interest coming up? 

[The Iceman]

Just now, Newman said:

Top 3 CIPS analogs this afternoon based on the 12z GFS:

1. Jan 2016

2. BDB 2010

3. Jan 1996

There's my weenie contribution for the day, because yes we have time to draw this back NW but the Euro remaining put doesn't inspire confidence.

FYI that was a positive bun  what are the key differences between the GFS and EURO, because it doesn't look far off at all at 500 MB. 

[Newman]

4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

FYI that was a positive bun  what are the key differences between the GFS and EURO, because it doesn't look far off at all at 500 MB. 

Ridge out west is a bit more amplified on the GFS, better wave separation between our 50/50 and NS shortwave cutting off, and the decaying NAO block is a bit more stout on the GFS forcing the wave more meridional -> pinches off sooner. You're right though, things don't look too dissimilar broadly but it's such a nuanced setup.

Looking ahead, you want to see the GFS continue these trends and/or hold them. And need the Euro to adopt greater wave separation with our stretched out TPV. We want subtle ridging to build into New England where the Euro right now has the vorticity ribbon draped and keeping heights too low.