E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z AIFS would be a certified banger for Philly. Surface temps hover around 10-14° as you squeeze 1-1.5" of QPF into this cold dome.

Ratio City!

[Mikeymac5306]

35 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z AIFS would be a certified banger for Philly. Surface temps hover around 10-14° as you squeeze 1-1.5" of QPF into this cold dome.

If that warm air mixes in we could have a 1994 redux.  Ugh. 

 

I was commenting on what Ralph Wiggum posted. 

[Duca892]

AI’s seem to love a snowstorm up here 

[Newman]

15 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

If that warm air mixes in we could have a 1994 redux.  Ugh. 

 

I was commenting on what Ralph Wiggum posted. 

Details to be sorted out later, the good news is it's looking highly likely that someone along the East Coast will get a storm this coming weekend. Models will waffle north and south all week. But tbh, I'm feeling really confident for areas I-80 south. These things almost always come north. As long as we don't see models trend towards holding back that energy in the SW, I think DC -> NYC is looking good

[JTA66]

Gonna be a long week, ain’t it?

13F

[Heisy]

Gonna be a long week, ain’t it?
13F

This is the most nerve racking part of the hobby, we’re at that day 6 range with a potential MECS in the cards. Been years since we had a potential event like this. Here, we, go


.

[Kevin Reilly]

Welp I’m at a half tank oil with a 240 gallon tank.  I ordered 100 gallons today in the realization we have a 5” snow pack we are likely heading to the single digits tonight and looking towards next weekend if the AI Euro is correct 10”+ more of snow and ridiculous -3 temps I’ll have to crank the furnace up to prevent the oil line from freezing.

Just thought I would share keep the thermostat up if you have oil when temps go below 10 degrees otherwise you run the risk of freezing the line especially if you have an older tank with low oil water sinks to the bottom of the tank freezing the line.  No oil in pi no heat and you damage your furnace system.

Get ready I think it’s coming! 

[JTA66]

Not saying anything will happen this weekend. Perhaps the suppressed look is correct and we end up high & dry.

But looking back, the 2016 storm, PDII, the ‘96 blizzard and many other MESC were all initially modeled to miss us to the south. 

[Violentweatherfan]

13 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Not saying anything will happen this weekend. Perhaps the suppressed look is correct and we end up high & dry.

But looking back, the 2016 storm, PDII, the ‘96 blizzard and many other MESC were all initially modeled to miss us to the south. 

PDII was forecast to be a hit by five days out. Anyway, the MJO will be moving into phase 7 and the NAO will be somewhat negative. I don’t see any blocking. I’d like to see the the cold air mass dig a little deeper and we’d be in business 

[Lady Di]

37 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Welp I’m at a half tank oil with a 240 gallon tank.  I ordered 100 gallons today in the realization we have a 5” snow pack we are likely heading to the single digits tonight and looking towards next weekend if the AI Euro is correct 10”+ more of snow and ridiculous -3 temps I’ll have to crank the furnace up to prevent the oil line from freezing.

Just thought I would share keep the thermostat up if you have oil when temps go below 10 degrees otherwise you run the risk of freezing the line especially if you havd an older tank with low oil water sinks to the bottom of the tank freezing the line.  No oil in pi no heat and you damage your furnace system.

Get ready I think it’s coming! 

Is your tank outside?  Heat tape on the oil line(s) might help.  Mine is in the basement with the line going into the top and not all the way down.  I have to watch my gauge 'cause at 1/4 I'm out.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Not saying anything will happen this weekend. Perhaps the suppressed look is correct and we end up high & dry.

But looking back, the 2016 storm, PDII, the ‘96 blizzard and many other MESC were all initially modeled to miss us to the south. 

Not this far South tho and not with a 1052hp pouring S. I dunno about this one.

I was just about to post, and I dont want to deflate hopes, but as much as some folks are saying this Nina is acting different, it really isnt imho. And this week is a classic example of a strong NS and pv outbreak with the suppressed look and Southern areas cashing in.

I hope im wrong and the AI models 'know something", but suppression has always been a major concern for us over the next 7-10 days. Central mid Atlantic is likely the jackpot zone and should bullseye this one....they deserve it. They should start a thread tbh. I just hope we dont smoke cirrus in this one while Richmond get 16". Another 2-4" storm for my area is perfectly fine with me. 

[Duca892]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not this far South tho and not with a 1052hp pouring S. I dunno about this one.

I was just about to post, and I dont want to deflate hopes, but as much as some folks are saying this Nina is acting different, it really isnt imho. And this week is a classic example of a strong NS and pv outbreak with the suppressed look and Southern areas cashing in.

I hope im wrong and the AI models 'know something", but suppression has always been a major concern for us over the next 7-10 days. Central mid Atlantic is likely the jackpot zone and should bullseye this one....they deserve it. They should start a thread tbh. I just hope we dont smoke cirrus in this one while Richmond get 16". Another 2-4" storm for my area is perfectly fine with me. 

Truth be told I am perfectly fine with a modest 2-4in event for Bethlehem again. Just as you said as long as we aren’t sitting with clouds while those south cash in. I’m greedy what can I say lol 

[ChescoWx]

A prolonged stretch of well below normal temperatures are likely across our area for at least the next 2 weeks. In fact, with the exception of Thursday where temperatures will moderate to above normal (around 40 degrees) we may not see another day this month with afternoon high temperatures above freezing. Temperatures tonight should fall to near 10 degrees with highs tomorrow struggling to top 20 degrees. Temperatures by Wednesday morning will be close to zero in the typical colder valley locations. Even colder weather moves in by the weekend with high temperatures on Saturday remaining around the mid-teens with lows by Sunday morning again near zero. Our next chance of snow looks like it will be possible toward the end of next weekend.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12z icon starts us off with smoking cirrus, nary a flake while the MA gets a SECS. But...it did move quite a bit N, so thats a step in the right direction.

[JTA66]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not this far South tho and not with a 1052hp pouring S. I dunno about this one.

I was just about to post, and I dont want to deflate hopes, but as much as some folks are saying this Nina is acting different, it really isnt imho. And this week is a classic example of a strong NS and pv outbreak with the suppressed look and Southern areas cashing in.

I hope im wrong and the AI models 'know something", but suppression has always been a major concern for us over the next 7-10 days. Central mid Atlantic is likely the jackpot zone and should bullseye this one....they deserve it. They should start a thread tbh. I just hope we dont smoke cirrus in this one while Richmond get 16". Another 2-4" storm for my area is perfectly fine with me. 

Agreed. I posted several pages back that an OBX MECS seems to be a Nina hallmark. And maybe that’s what we’re looking at here.

But just to be safe, I buried my shovel in the back of the garage this morning. We’re a superstitious lot.

[Kevin Reilly]

51 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

Is your tank outside?  Heat tape on the oil line(s) might help.  Mine is in the basement with the line going into the top and not all the way down.  I have to watch my gauge 'cause at 1/4 I'm out.  

Yea tank is outside the line is at the bottom of the tank it the line is literally like 7-10” into the house. 

[Newman]

Best case scenario is something like what we saw with the fantasy GFS run a few days ago: the Baja California energy ejects very efficiently and runs into a brutally deep cold dome and we squeeze out a lot of moisture along the baroclinic zone. The worst case scenario (and the most likely fail mode) is the energy gets held back and or doesn't eject efficiently and it's a congrats Richmond. And also if the HP keeps trending stronger. But until then, I see absolutely no reason to worry about rain in this set up. If the 6z AI GFS happened, then sure you might flip to sleet. We will have to see wholesale changes with the Arctic high to worry about rain

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not surprisingly, the AI GFS took a big jump South to the gfs. And vice versa. This 12z suite is honing in on the Mid Atlantic. 

[Duca892]

Dry and bone chilling cold. Eww

[Newman]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not surprisingly, the AI GFS took a big jump South to the gfs. And vice versa. This 12z suite is honing in on the Mid Atlantic. 

If the CMC is even close to right and we get that energy to eject and phase, then holy shit

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Newman said:

If the CMC is even close to right and we get that energy to eject and phase, then holy shit

But, even if the baja ull sits and ejects in pieces or is delayed to come out, there are several chances between the 24th and Feb 3ish in this pattern.  

[LVblizzard]

9 minutes ago, Newman said:

If the CMC is even close to right and we get that energy to eject and phase, then holy shit

Even with the AI GFS solution we still get a significant storm with just a partial phase. Sky’s the limit for this weekend.

[Newman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But, even if the baja ull sits and ejects in pieces or is delayed to come out, there are several chances between the 24th and Feb 3ish in this pattern.  

Absolutely, the 28-29th seems like a great coastal storm threat as well. There will be plenty of chances

[Albedoman]

Let it hone in Ralph.  I said many weeks ago what was going to happen around MLK and dam if it did.  Nearly a foot of snow on the ground at my house. Now comes the blistering cold that you will will remember I stated back last Novmeber which I go lambasted for.  The storm for this weekend is going to flip flop until the PAC data comes into play by Thursday afternoon.  Anything on the mid range models is horse shit IMHO, the models are  all are missing vital data. Fun storm to track but if th cold is as deep as shown for thweekend,  supression will likley win out.  Snow in the teens will be nasty as even salt will not work should be the big headline. Travell could be SOB. Be prepared to huncker down this weekend would be motto if the storm comes north. Personally another 4-6 inches is good enough for me but blowing that shit at 12 degrees is not fun.

[Newman]

Ukie is a great hit

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Ukie is a great hit

Someone posted the Kuchera map in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. 16-28” for all of us. Would be up there with the all time greats.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Ukie is a great hit

Well, yes. I am still very skeptical (for my area), especially considering the CMC and UKIE have both performed horribly this year. 

But watch, this will be the one time in the past 25 years the Arctic hp overperforms modeling and suppresses this to our South rather than coming in weaker allowing for a N trend. 

[Eskimo Joe]

24 minutes ago, Newman said:

Ukie is a great hit

UKMET is a top 5 snowfall from DC to Harrisburg to Philly. Would rival PDII, '96, 2009-2010, and 2016 in many spots.