E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Duca892 said:

Can and should we maybe expect this to continue? I am not trying to cling to too much hope especially for the Lehigh Valley... but hard not to at least keep peeking now

IMO, if the 12z suite tomorrow has this or better, then we are likely onto something.

[JTA66]

I invoke the weekend rule!

(Not sure I actually have the authority to do so.)

[LVblizzard]

Don’t sleep on Saturday either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a stripe of 1-3” somewhere in the region.

[JTA66]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Don’t sleep on Saturday either. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a stripe of 1-3” somewhere in the region.

UKMET prefers Saturday. Let's see what Dr. No is up to. 

[ChescoWx]

There has been a lot of complaints on my FB page that we have had a "snow drought" this season. So I posted the below. "Through today some of you may be surprised to learn that here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA we are actually above normal in seasonal snowfall through today. With one significant snow and a bunch of little events we are at 12.8" of snow this season. Average through today is only 9.4". This means over 75% of our annual snowfall on average remains to fall. Here in Western Chester County, we average 36.1" of snow while Eastern Chester County is ~32" of snow. Maybe surprising to some of you but over at the PHL Airport they only average 21.7" of snow. Of note we on average are not too far off of the average snowfall for Chicago IL (38.4"). Any surprises with these stats? Below is our average snowfall by month. October (0.4") / November (1.2") / December (5.5") / January (9.7") / February (12.8") / March (6.0") / April (0.4")"

[RedSky]

Fighting off the urge to call this an 80's January because it's missing the little nickel and dime snows that let them scratch out 6" 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Of note today back in 1912 Chester County recorded its lowest temperature on record of 19 degrees below zero at Coatesville 1SW. This was equaled at Phoenixville 1E (1/22/61) and Octoraro Lake (1/22/84.) Nothing close to that today here in Chesco...however our coldest weather of the season will arrive next week. This is also on average our coldest week of the year. We could see some light rain both today and especially later tonight this may change to a bit of light snow toward tomorrow morning which could make for some slippery spots for rush hour. Temperatures tomorrow will fall through the 20's during the day. We stay below freezing on Friday but moderate a bit with a bit of snow possible on Saturday with the arrival of the arctic front. Next week will feature well below normal temperatures.

I’m sure to get to -19 we had snow on the ground that would be interesting.  I saw today in center city our heat island is well in effect as weeping cherry trees were flowering and blooming. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

There has been a lot of complaints on my FB page that we have had a "snow drought" this season. So I posted the below. "Through today some of you may be surprised to learn that here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA we are actually above normal in seasonal snowfall through today. With one significant snow and a bunch of little events we are at 12.8" of snow this season. Average through today is only 9.4". This means over 75% of our annual snowfall on average remains to fall. Here in Western Chester County, we average 36.1" of snow while Eastern Chester County is ~32" of snow. Maybe surprising to some of you but over at the PHL Airport they only average 21.7" of snow. Of note we on average are not too far off of the average snowfall for Chicago IL (38.4"). Any surprises with these stats? Below is our average snowfall by month. October (0.4") / November (1.2") / December (5.5") / January (9.7") / February (12.8") / March (6.0") / April (0.4")"

9.4” here in Media and about 2.67” liquid since November 30th 2025 I’m fine with this above normal for here despite cold dry stretches which is typical in a La Niña winter or any winter. 

[Kevin Reilly]

45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Fighting off the urge to call this an 80's January because it's missing the little nickel and dime snows that let them scratch out 6" 

 

Are you summoning at February 11th 1983 storm that was a fun one!!

[Birds~69]

29 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Are you summoning at February 11th 1983 storm that was a fun one!!

Elliott Abrams kept on raising the totals every update on KYW. I almost jumped through the window in excitement....

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Agreed. Unlike the HECS it had for tomorrow, it has some support this time. Still a long ways to go, though. Patience!

Period around Jan 27-29 is the one to watch. It is a window ive been seeing for a couple days now and I noted it in the other sub. Patience will pay off. 24-25 system is N or W then pushes the boundary under us. Followup should be able to do something with cold air in place. Whether thats a weak overunning wave or an amped up thump to mix type, we will have to wait and see. 

[Birds~69]

Patch sending me weenie stuff....

https://patch.com/pennsylvania/across-pa/winter-storm-intensifies-snow-possible-philly-area-latest-updates?utm_medium=social&utm_content=pennsylvania&utm_sf_post_ref=651400331&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=blasts&utm_sf_cserv_ref=128090490580602&fbclid=IwY2xjawPU3kRleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETBvbW5SNFhlUnRzVmtxSFY5c3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHt284rEhi5EGCYuOaPTstj6H9e5KA-AliP9kdRlc_IwHS63QW9r_sAjsZ4j3_aem_pZiA09TRmkiseTNPquuxPQ

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Icon gives se pa a modest little event on Saturday 

[LVblizzard]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Icon gives se pa a modest little event on Saturday 

NAM and RGEM have a 1-3” event NW of 202 as well. Would really like to at least see something, it’s been weeks since we’ve had anything wintry aside from Sunday’s graupel squalls.

[LVblizzard]

GFS remains very interesting for Sunday. RGEM has jumped NW as well.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

GFS remains very interesting for Sunday. RGEM has jumped NW as well.

Cmc also

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also

Need some euro support and I might budge. For now, going with the least snowiest model. Pretty good rule for keeping expectations in check.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Need some euro support and I might budget. For now, going with the least snowiest model. Pretty good rule for keeping expectations in check.

Hmm was it warm enough today 57f at the airport to put the Wiggum rule into effect in regards to snow especially since models are trending NW for Sunday? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Hmm was it warm enough today 57f at the airport to put the Wiggum rule into effect in regards to snow especially since models are trending NW for Sunday? 

60F

...but we should see some flakes flying this weekend regardless.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro didnt budge and is a good bit offshore. ICON ticked SE just a smidge with the Sunday system. Getting deja vu here with the GFS likely pulling a Lucy.

[Ralph Wiggum]

EPS also well offshore for Sunday.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro didnt budge and is a good bit offshore. ICON ticked SE just a smidge with the Sunday system. Getting deja vu here with the GFS likely pulling a Lucy.

Gefs also well east. Cant make this up.

[Mikeymac5306]

At this point, The GFS is nothing but a fun fantasy model to look at if you are jonesing for any type of particular inclement weather.  Very hard to rely on when it's the only model showing something. 

 

Had flakes flying on the way into work this morning. 

[BBasile]

Currently getting a rain/snow/graupel combo... I think.  39.7F

[The Iceman]

9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Need some euro support and I might budge. For now, going with the least snowiest model. Pretty good rule for keeping expectations in check.

If we are going to get something this month I’m pretty convinced it’s going to pop out of no where in the day 4-5 range. Flow is too fast, models have no idea in the long range for individual storms. 

[Duca892]

May I ask what the EPS is?

[ChescoWx]

Breezy and cold today with temperatures remaining below freezing this morning and then slowly falling through the 20's this afternoon. We will stay below freezing for much of the next week with the one exception being Saturday where we should moderate into the mid to upper 30's. There will also be a couple chances of some light snow both Saturday and Sunday. Our coldest weather of the season will arrive next week with high temperatures by Tuesday, remaining in the teens with nighttime lows in the single digits above zero.

[BBasile]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

May I ask what the EPS is?

Ensemble prediction system of the ECMWF.  The ensembles run with slightly adjusted initialized conditions.  The ensemble spread can show uncertainty in the forecast.  

[JTA66]

As long as we still have the RGEM, I'm not giving up! Who knows more aboot snow than those hockey-playing, beer-swilling, donut-eating, tuque-wearing Canucks?? 

[ChescoWx]

21 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I’m sure to get to -19 we had snow on the ground that would be interesting.  I saw today in center city our heat island is well in effect as weeping cherry trees were flowering and blooming. 

For those 3 days with 19 below zero across Chester County - at Coatesville 1SW in 1914 there was 6.0" of snow on the ground / At Phoenixville 1E on 1/22/1961 there was 12.0" of snow OTG / at Octoraro Lake on 1/22/1984 there was 5.5" of snow OTG