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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion


LVblizzard
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5 hours ago, LoDelWayne said:

Are we or aren't we getting a storm? That's the question.

Probably not, and if we do, it will be mostly rain. There is just not much sustained cold air between now and the end of the month.

I tried warning you all that if there wasn't a snowstorm in the first ten days of January, we might be waiting a while for one.

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11 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

How many days till pitchers and catchers? Go Phillies! 

Was talking with my buddy about this today. 3.5 weeks. Phillies haven't done jack squat this off season aside from hiring Don Mattingly as one of the bench coaches and keeping Schwarber. Sounds to me like Thompson will have a short leash and Mattingly is there as a standby. 

Seasonable outside, 34F.

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12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was talking with my buddy about this today. 3.5 weeks. Phillies haven't done jack squat this off season aside from hiring Don Mattingly as one of the bench coaches and keeping Schwarber. Sounds to me like Thompson will have a short leash and Mattingly is there as a standby. 

Seasonable outside, 34F.

But funny they are of course still ranked as an elite team in MLB. Number 4 in MLB and 5 for ESPN. In baseball the best team rarely wins (see Phillies in 1977 / 2010-2011) you simply need to be on the playing field (in the playoffs) and get a bit lucky see 1980/2008 and 2022. The Phillies are a top tier team and have a strong chance to make the playoffs for a team record tying 5th straight season. Do I think they will win the World Series?? I never do but do I think they have a chance to be on the playing field? Yes and as a fan who has for the vast majority of my phandom found the team not even in the playoffs with zero chance....I love these years!! Go Phillies and oh yeah adding Bo Bichette would make them even better!! Land the plane Dave!!

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Temperatures today and tomorrow will be a couple degrees above normal for mid-January with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Clouds increase later today and tomorrow with a chance of rain tomorrow evening changing to snow around midnight before ending toward Thursday morning. Any accumulations look light, but we will need to keep an eye out for some potential Thursday morning rush hour impacts. Highs on both Thursday and Friday will remain in the 20's. Below normal temperatures appear likely for much of the next week with lows next week in the single digits possible for some areas.

image.png.17c767a91d135c69563b535d5b40afb9.pngimage.thumb.png.24e3a3cb96efaddb9418e3dd4b693ba7.png

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The thing I like better about the post 1/22 timeframe is there's much easier ways to score vs playing the fickle game of hoping a vort rounds the trough at just the right time. With solid blocking developing and a decent Pacific, you shove the PV into Southeast Canada but also roll it on its side so it acts as an area of confluence and locks in deep cold across the northern tier. Essentially, it's a great overrunning signal. The ensembles have actually been enthused for that period.

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9 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

This is our reward for Patullo getting released!

Seriously though It will be gone in one of the next two runs and I will be on here tomorrow morning bitching again. 

Whoda thunk it? 

Looks like we are back in play for the MLK storm. At least the coast is as of now. 

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Of note today back in 1912 Chester County recorded its lowest temperature on record of 19 degrees below zero at Coatesville 1SW. This was equaled at Phoenixville 1E (1/22/61) and Octoraro Lake (1/22/84.) Nothing close to that today here in Chesco...however our coldest weather of the season will arrive next week. This is also on average our coldest week of the year. We could see some light rain both today and especially later tonight this may change to a bit of light snow toward tomorrow morning which could make for some slippery spots for rush hour. Temperatures tomorrow will fall through the 20's during the day. We stay below freezing on Friday but moderate a bit with a bit of snow possible on Saturday with the arrival of the arctic front. Next week will feature well below normal temperatures.

image.png.cc0c0fc80987c196ca6e6fd4a26e19a4.pngimage.thumb.png.530b193fd38b16af8badec73041d1435.png

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10 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

LMFAO the 12z GFS is like a 75-100mi shift West on having a full fledged snowstorm for MLK Day 

Trough has progressed further west each run, and this is not isolated to the GFS. The Euro, Euro AI, EPS, and UKMET all have this in some fashion. It certainly looks like most of the Delaware Valley could be falling into a light to potentially moderate weekend snowfall.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Trough has progressed further west each run, and this is not isolated to the GFS. The Euro, Euro AI, EPS, and UKMET all have this in some fashion. It certainly looks like most of the Delaware Valley could be falling into a light to potentially moderate weekend snowfall.

Agreed. Unlike the HECS it had for tomorrow, it has some support this time. Still a long ways to go, though. Patience!

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Trough has progressed further west each run, and this is not isolated to the GFS. The Euro, Euro AI, EPS, and UKMET all have this in some fashion. It certainly looks like most of the Delaware Valley could be falling into a light to potentially moderate weekend snowfall.

Add the 12z Canadian to the list. Wraps up the storm just too late for the Philly area but north of I-80 gets the goods. Huge shift from a nothingburger at 0z.

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