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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion


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2 hours ago, Nodriveslow said:

Amazing there wasn't, and still isn't, no mention of this light snow in Mt Holly's forecast.

Screenshot_20260102-003630.png

Google weather had it. Almost down to a tee as far as start and stop time.

"The Google Weather forecast is created from an internal forecasting system that utilizes weather models and observations from global weather agencies."

21F/Clouds breaking up

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As I had mentioned yesterday some models were hinting at some snow showers overnight and we did indeed see some overnight which as many have mentioned recoated drives across the area. Here in East Nantmeal we picked up 0.3" of snow (our 8th winter event of the season). We continue with well below normal temperatures through Monday but then see a nice warmup with temperatures trending well above normal for much of next week. Overall the next week or so looks dry with maybe a snow shower chance Saturday night.image.png.aa69c92da8f3acfba4b19937e13b2992.pngimage.thumb.png.600e2e509d7d9335b4873893d4ec99e3.png

 

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Back to overcast...some lazy flurries floating around.

27F

A lazy flurry or two here as well. Just a few 100 bazillion more and we'll be on to something.

I can remember as a little kid seeing flurries and not understanding weather (not that I do now), that I could somehow will it to snow if I just concentrated hard enough. Spoiler aleet: it never worked out. 

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1 minute ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Ralph judging by everyone jumping off a cliff in the MA forum, guessing nothing doing on the GFES and EPS?  I don't read them very well. 

We're in a truly desperate state in the Mid Atlantic sub forum. It's been a decade since there has been a region wide warning level snowfall, and it's looking rather grim for snowfall chances down our way once again this winter. It's entirely possible that we won't even manage a double digit seasonal snowfall total at any of our climate sites (BWI, DCA, IAD) again this year.

I wouldn't read too much into it up in your neck of the woods. You can still very easily score and have had several events this far. 

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56 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Ralph judging by everyone jumping off a cliff in the MA forum, guessing nothing doing on the GFES and EPS?  I don't read them very well. 

It's just a bunch of snow weenies losing their minds over a 4 day warmup, nothing unusual about that.

53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I wouldn't read too much into it up in your neck of the woods. You can still very easily score and have had several events this far.

In a clipper/Miller B pattern yes but if it's a full blown shit the blinds pattern for the MA then Philly proper and the immediate areas are usually SOL as well.

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1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Ralph judging by everyone jumping off a cliff in the MA forum, guessing nothing doing on the GFES and EPS?  I don't read them very well. 

Just a January thaw. We've been in a freeze since right after Thanksgiving. Its going to be ok...winter will return. Just look ahead at 5 days max dont get caught up in 2 weeks out. Enjoy the reload period.

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If you think we were running colder than normal the entire holiday season you are correct. In the 37 days since Thanksgiving day 31 of those days have featured below normal temperatures. We should have another 3 days of below normal temperatures before we finally see an above normal temperature day on Tuesday. In fact, that day should begin a streak of well above normal temperatures that should last for about 6 days before we look to potentially trend back to below normal by next Monday. There is a slight chance of some flurries tonight with our next rain chance arriving by Thursday night. 

image.png.82ce15bef331838c65a8a59d7e3a1d4c.pngimage.thumb.png.609a712d37b6390ca21f715b8e38ad81.png

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39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is some torch we are in. Being sarcastic obviously, but remember when guidance had Dec 24-Jan 10 as a total torch job? Now it even appears the real moderation period that is coming next week will be muted and short-lived with seasonal cold returning by later next weekend.

30s and 40s for me this week. No torch.

Back to cold next weekend. 

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55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is some torch we are in. Being sarcastic obviously, but remember when guidance had Dec 24-Jan 10 as a total torch job? Now it even appears the real moderation period that is coming next week will be muted and short-lived with seasonal cold returning by later next weekend.

One of those years where the warm is coming it’s going to be 60s and 70’s then the warmth is shooed cut down by the west northwesterly flow beat down.

This sets up a normal winter IHO. 

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is some torch we are in. Being sarcastic obviously, but remember when guidance had Dec 24-Jan 10 as a total torch job? Now it even appears the real moderation period that is coming next week will be muted and short-lived with seasonal cold returning by later next weekend.

I just have this feeling our snowiest month is behind us (Dec) and we'll eek out the season in the 20-25" range total which isn't horrible but w/all the cold around I would have expected more. Still early of course and it's good to see flakes flying every other day but the season ending amount may not be all that impressive. 

Hopefully we reload after the brief warmup and blast the rest of Jan into Feb... 

28F

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And the Euro has a really.nice hit jan 13

Good Lord, you'll never learn.

You may experiencing a upper frontal lobe past memory brain infection which affects expectations on future events which are unrealistic results/outcomes. Happens mainly within the weather community.

Treatment: Review the 99.999% of the time this didn't occur then smack yourself in the head 6 or 7 times, kick trashcans then tell yourself don't do this again until it happens again. Repeat therapy as needed... 

29F/Cloudy

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