E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

I have seen a lot of chatter across social media on how it doesn’t snow as much as it used to and if we don’t see significant snow by the end of December it is winter snow potential over! I have framed up some stats on some recent winters that may be why some of these folks may being influenced by some recency bias based on winters here during the past 20 years.

 

Keep in mind it is only December 7th and some spots including East Nantmeal in Chester County have already exceeded 1 inch of snow for the season – to date most spots in our area average near 2 inches of snow to today's date in a typical season. Assuming we see no more snow this month below are some snow stats for years with 1 inch or less of accumulated snow by New Year’s Eve and the final seasonal snow totals. There is for certain a correlation but enough outliers to allow for Team Snow folks to dream!

 

30 years with 1” or less of snow by December 31st

· 5 seasons ended up with above normal snowfall at +35”

· 8 seasons ended up between 60% to 85% of normal snowfall at +20”

· 7 seasons ended up between10” to 15” of snow

· 6 seasons ended with no snow to 10%

· The greatest snow season with little pre 12/31 snow was 1977-78 when 59.8” of snow fell

· The least amount of seasonal snow was 1972-1973 when no snow at all accumulated that season at Coatesville.

To put the above in greater perspective at the NWS and trained spotter locations at Coatesville 1W/2SW and East Nantmeal there have been 47 winters with greater than 35 inches of snow. In 3 decades 1900-1909 / 1910-1919 and just recently in 2010-2019 we experienced 6 winters seasons with snowfall greater than 35”. The longest stretch of no season with over 35” was the 23 straight snow seasons from 1934-35 through 1956-57 that all failed to exceed 35 inches of snow for the winter season. So far here in the 2020’s only 2020-2021 with 52.2” of snow has exceeded the 35” mark. So, if you think it doesn’t snow as much as it used to…just imagine growing up in Chester County in the 1930’s thru 1950’s! It is important to remember our last complete decade from 2010-2019 was our 3rd snowiest decade since the 1890’s with only the 1890’s and 1900-1910 averaging more snow then that last decade we just completed. If you are a believer in cyclical climate change like me I suspect we are due for some less snowy seasons.

[Birds~69]

You have to remember the majority people are not snow weenies like us. We do not see 2-4/3-6 stuff that often anymore. We are dorks and calculate 0.4" snow falls and add them all up. Most people write that off as it didn't snow or not an actual snow storm. Those people are correct. And if it doesn't stick the road and inconvenience them they write that off as nothing as well where you will calculate that into our annual snowfall. Winters were definitely better years ago...

[RedSky]

3 hours ago, Duca892 said:

Every met on Twitter keeps preaching about this pattern and to ignore models etc… yea uh… there isn’t jack shit to track… seems hard to ignore how boring the rest of the month looks

Burn all todays 12z model suites with fire 

The horror the horror

 

[ChescoWx]

6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You have to remember the majority people are not snow weenies like us. We do not see 2-4/3-6 stuff that often anymore. We are dorks and calculate 0.4" snow falls and add them all up. Most people write that off as it didn't snow or not an actual snow storm. Those people are correct. And if it doesn't stick the road and inconvenience them they write that off as nothing as well where you will calculate that into our annual snowfall. Winters were definitely better years ago...

Truth!! as a NWS spotter I have to add them up and report each one. Most folks will say it didn't snow at all....heck I have 3 winter "events" and all it totals is 1.1" 

[ChescoWx]

12z Ensembles - White Christmas Season incoming - keep the faith Team Snow!! I will keep finding the snowiest maps! 

 

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Truth!! as a NWS spotter I have to add them up and report each one. Most folks will say it didn't snow at all....heck I have 3 winter "events" and all it totals is 1.1" 

I understand this but most people do not. And I understand their point of view as well. If you told the average person we had three events so far this winter they would think you're sniffing glue or huffing paint...

[ChescoWx]

21 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I understand this but most people do not. And I understand their point of view as well. If you told the average person we had three events so far this winter they would think you're sniffing glue or huffing paint...

Sometimes this hobby requires such huffing.....

[BBasile]

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Who said anything about wanting a big East Coast storm? I'll sure as hell take some clippers...

I want a big East Coast storm!  lol.  I'd also be happy to dink and dunk my way to average.  You're right, though.  Winters do suck anymore.  Especially for us to the south and east of Philly.  It's like the 09-10 winter was the exclamation point on good winters.  No más.  

[penndotguy]

As stated above it seems like we don’t see the 2-4 or 3-6” snowfalls that’s used to be the norm. Anymore it’s the 1-3” to slop variety, Heck out here in Western Berks County we only had one Warning criteria storm 6”+ that we just made the 6” last year. I also understand each winter has its differences but being in our Location and proximity’s to the coast can help or hurt our snow chances. Not sure what I’m trying to get at here but my 59 years of being in this location something changed. 

[ChescoWx]

Just now, penndotguy said:

As stated above it seems like we don’t see the 2-4 or 3-6” snowfalls that’s used to be the norm. Anymore it’s the 1-3” to slop variety, Heck out here in Western Berks County we only had one Warning criteria storm 6”+ that we just made the 6” last year. I also understand each winter has its differences but being in our Location and proximity’s to the coast can help or hurt our snow chances. Not sure what I’m trying to get at here but my 59 years of being in this location something changed. 

I suspect our last complete decade in Western Berks was one of the snowiest on record....nothing has changed just cycles. Like I said above imagine going 23 years with below normal snowfall like Chesco did from the 1930's to 1950's....

[ChescoWx]

27 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

As stated above it seems like we don’t see the 2-4 or 3-6” snowfalls that’s used to be the norm. Anymore it’s the 1-3” to slop variety, Heck out here in Western Berks County we only had one Warning criteria storm 6”+ that we just made the 6” last year. I also understand each winter has its differences but being in our Location and proximity’s to the coast can help or hurt our snow chances. Not sure what I’m trying to get at here but my 59 years of being in this location something changed. 

I had looked at snow data for your area a couple years back and I think you are not too far up the road from here and it looks like at least at Blue Marsh Lake (is that close to you?) snow totals have trended higher in the last 46 years

 

 

[The Iceman]

2 hours ago, BBasile said:

I want a big East Coast storm!  lol.  I'd also be happy to dink and dunk my way to average.  You're right, though.  Winters do suck anymore.  Especially for us to the south and east of Philly.  It's like the 09-10 winter was the exclamation point on good winters.  No más.  

We don’t even dink and dunk well anymore. Pattern the next two weeks looks cold/dry/warm/wet repeat. Honestly bring on the torch if that’s how it’s gonna roll… rocking December on life support

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, BBasile said:

I want a big East Coast storm!  lol.  I'd also be happy to dink and dunk my way to average.  You're right, though.  Winters do suck anymore.  Especially for us to the south and east of Philly.  It's like the 09-10 winter was the exclamation point on good winters.  No más.  

13-14 and 14-15 were really good winters. In 2015, I passed by the Aetna lake in Medford in late February/early March, and it was still frozen over. We don't even get a hard freeze anymore, much less that late in the season.

[Birds~69]

4 hours ago, penndotguy said:

As stated above it seems like we don’t see the 2-4 or 3-6” snowfalls that’s used to be the norm. Anymore it’s the 1-3” to slop variety, Heck out here in Western Berks County we only had one Warning criteria storm 6”+ that we just made the 6” last year. I also understand each winter has its differences but being in our Location and proximity’s to the coast can help or hurt our snow chances. Not sure what I’m trying to get at here but my 59 years of being in this location something changed. 

Growing up during the 70s and 80s I remember snowfall predictions like this for a decent storm:

SNJ/Shore: 1-3" w/some mixing

Philly Immediate. S&E: 2-4'

Immediate NW Burbs: 3-6"

Lehigh Valley/Berks: 4-8"

Poconos: 5-10"+ 

We don't even sniff those type of totals any longer.

Good old Herb:

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Growing up during the 70s and 80s I remember snowfall predictions like this for a decent storm:

SNJ/Shore: 1-3" w/some mixing

Philly Immediate. S&E: 2-4'

Immediate NW Burbs: 3-6"

Lehigh Valley/Berks: 4-8"

Poconos: 5-10"+ 

We don't even sniff those type of totals any longer.

Good old Herb:

Yes, growing up these were so common. Herb Clarke, Dave Roberts, dare I show my age....Jim O Brien. "A disturbance will drop down into the Plains and spin up a bad guy off the Carolina Coast. Snow and mixing down the shore but we are looking at 2-4" right around the city with higher totals just to the North and West with bigger amounts up into the Lehigh Valley"

[JTA66]

47 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

13-14 and 14-15 were really good winters. In 2015, I passed by the Aetna lake in Medford in late February/early March, and it was still frozen over. We don't even get a hard freeze anymore, much less that late in the season.

I don’t know if the super El Niño of 2015-16 had some sort of long-term effect on global circulation patterns or it’s a coincidence or it’s a combination of factors. But since then, if our winters haven’t been outright ratters, they certainly have been unremarkable.

I’ll be 60 next year. I’ve seen some bad stretches of winter weather (late 80’s into the early 90’s comes to mind). But this past decade is setting a new bar for craptacular.

[Hurricane Agnes]

23 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

That big warm blob near Alaska is nuts.  And AK has had a swarm of earthquakes the past week.  That may kill the Iditarod if they can't build up enough snowpack by March!

5 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

12z Ensembles - White Christmas Season incoming - keep the faith Team Snow!! I will keep finding the snowiest maps! 

 

Looks like a huge lake-effect thing going on by Erie, the rest of NW PA & SW NY! 

Bottomed out at 26 this morning but it did get up to 42 as a high, where it later clouded up.  Currently 34 with 29 dp.

 

[Albedoman]

I have seen so much convoluted crap in these long range models last week or so.- it is so sickening.  These LR models  are so undependable when the southern jetstream gets cutoff and whisked away along the carolina coast for snow making in our region. All I am saying is you all better hope we get some deep moisture storms coming from the gulf or the atlantic, or we are going to be in one hell of a drought come spring. Right now I see no significant precip in the next 2-3 weeks. These clippers are bone dry.  Less then . 25 inch of any type of precip is absolutely worthless when the dewpoints are in the single digits and below zero and the winds are at 25 mph after the clipper goes by.   Its a dam desert out there.  Snow will sublimate and rain will evaporate within hours. My humidifier is running like gangbusters right now and its not even mid-January.

We really  need the gulf moisture and it it just cannot get to our neck of the woods because the barrage of bone dry clippers keep it at bay below Memphis Tn. I have never seen such a relentless pattern  in my 50 years of studying weather  for the eastern US.  It will take a very deep low pressure sitting in the gulf and spinning shortwaves toward until the pattern breaks. When this will form I have no idea but frankly the only outcome we are all going to see is fricking utility bills that will be doubled or tripled from last year with all of these cloudy, dreary cold days  under 32 degrees. My november bill nearly doubled because this dam dry and cloudy weather pattern already. Snow weenies, lets hope for a good and really an original four corners low to reform in the gulf and head up the spine of the appalachians at the same time the SE ridge is retreating, especially around Christmas.   Thats the only chance of a good storm I see worth tracking in December. Anything else is a shot in the dark right now as everything and I mean everything has to line up perfectly to see a 6+ in snow event before Christmas.  Signed  debbie downer   LMAO 

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes, growing up these were so common. Herb Clarke, Dave Roberts, dare I show my age....Jim O Brien. "A disturbance will drop down into the Plains and spin up a bad guy off the Carolina Coast. Snow and mixing down the shore but we are looking at 2-4" right around the city with higher totals just to the North and West with bigger amounts up into the Lehigh Valley"

I grew up in those years and we never saw much snow from 1967-1978 PHL recorded not one storm over 6". The snowiest decade of most of our live was the last complete decade from 2010-2019. The facts show it in fact did not snow more back when Steve was a kid and we followed Jim O Brien and Herb Clarke....it snowed more when we were adults in the last 20 years - 2 of our snowiest decades on record. Amazing how facts often fail to support our feelings! LOL!

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes, growing up these were so common. Herb Clarke, Dave Roberts, dare I show my age....Jim O Brien. "A disturbance will drop down into the Plains and spin up a bad guy off the Carolina Coast. Snow and mixing down the shore but we are looking at 2-4" right around the city with higher totals just to the North and West with bigger amounts up into the Lehigh Valley"

Herb was Ch 10 and Robert's and O'Brien were Ch 6 back in the day. Who was the Ch 3 weather person, Tom Lamaine ?

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Herb was Ch 10 and Robert's and O'Brien were Ch 6 back in the day. Who was the Ch 3 weather person, Tom Lamaine ?

Bill Kuster mid 70s

 Lamaine was late 80s early 90s.

 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=LBiU_C2hwag&si=PdWhr-JTXffW4rqW

 

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bill Kuster mid 70s

 Lamaine was late 80s early 90s.

 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=LBiU_C2hwag&si=PdWhr-JTXffW4rqW

 

Barely rings a bell? Probably because my parents never watched channel 3...

[JTA66]

I don’t remember Bill Kuster either, but I remember the Lynda Gialanella train wreck.

Not weather, but I miss the Denenberg Dump.

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Growing up during the 70s and 80s I remember snowfall predictions like this for a decent storm:

SNJ/Shore: 1-3" w/some mixing

Philly Immediate. S&E: 2-4'

Immediate NW Burbs: 3-6"

Lehigh Valley/Berks: 4-8"

Poconos: 5-10"+ 

We don't even sniff those type of totals any longer.

Good old Herb:

Yup. I remember those days. 

[Birds~69]

6 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I don’t remember Bill Kuster either, but I remember the Lynda Gialanella train wreck.

Not weather, but I miss the Denenberg Dump.

Yep, remember him and his segment. He looked like a scientist or doctor. Remember the "Green Grocer" Joe Carcione...