12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[BlizzardNole]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I would love for that HRRR to verify

Me too.  An inch of snow out of this set-up this early in the season and I am thrilled

[mitchnick]

6z Euro drier too.

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro drier too.

What else is new. Dry has been the name of the game. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

What else is new. Dry has been the name of the game. 

Classic La Nina

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO is a rug pull...

[Imgoinhungry]

WB 6Z EURO is a rug pull...

Lol. Hrrr and gfs come in with the good stuff and euro says “just kidding.”


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[Ji]

Lol. Hrrr and gfs come in with the good stuff and euro says “just kidding.”


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Dr no

[Imgoinhungry]

Dr no

And the model showing the least snowfall is always correct.


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[Imgoinhungry]

Dr no

But my gut says to go with hrrr over euro at this point? Id think it has a better grasp of temps within 24 hours of onset than the euro?


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[Ji]

But my gut says to go with hrrr over euro at this point? Id think it has a better grasp of temps within 24 hours of onset than the euro?


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Test the Hope, but I’ve learned over the years to always go with the least snowiest model. The HRRR can also have wild wings.

[Interstate]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Test the Hope, but I’ve learned over the years to always go with the least snowiest model. The HRRR can also have wild wings.

Red Bull?

[Weather Will]

WB 9Z NBM....nothing burger for everyone except far Northern and West. I was going to install my heat mats today.  I will now wait for the next threat.

[scope1]

Rule #1

 

If Dr no says no, then it's no snow.  If it does show a snow storm and other models such as GFS are not agreeing then there will be no snow.  

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, scope1 said:

Rule #1

 

If Dr no says no, then it's no snow.  If it does show a snow storm and other models such as GFS are not agreeing then there will be no snow.  

Rule #2

 

If you think it might snow, it probably isn’t. 

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rule #2

 

If you think it might snow, it probably isn’t. 

Rule #3 You guys are dumb

[mappy]

lol some things never change around here 

[WxUSAF]

Short range and medium range rug pulls in the same model cycles. Mid season form on December 1st!!

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z HRRR: snow moves in between 5-6am for NW zones.  All rain east of the mountains by 11am.

[mitchnick]

Rap's holding sorta

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z HRRR: snow moves in between 5-6am for NW zones.  All rain east of the mountains by 11am.

Hrrr wasn't an absolute disaster (copyright JI)

[Eskimo Joe]

Advisory extended to NW Montgomery & NW Howard counties from 5am to 10am on Tues., 12/2:

Quote

...FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON... .Precipitation is expected to overspread the area after midnight tonight from southwest to northeast. While precipitation is likely to start as snow areawide, it is expected to mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain for most of the area. Locations along and south of US-50/I-66 likely end the event as rain as temperatures warm through the morning. Areas along the Mason-Dixon Line are most likely to remain all snow through the event, but that remains uncertain given exact low track. The Tuesday morning commute could be impacted for all areas in the Winter Weather Advisory. Updates to the forecast are likely, so please remain weather aware for the first widespread winter event of the season.

MDZ503-505-012230-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0022.251202T1000Z-251202T1500Z/
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
930 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around a light
glaze.

* WHERE...Northwest Howard and Northwest Montgomery Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin as a mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain early Tuesday morning before
transitioning to plain rain by late morning.

 

[dailylurker]

3 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

What else is new. Dry has been the name of the game. 

We can't even get rain. Why would it snow lol. At this point I'd be happy with an actual rainy day where it rains all day and we get over an inch. I feel like it's been a couple years since we've had that lol. 

[87storms]

Welp, looks like I’ll need to drive up Hamburg Rd again to see snow. 1k ft elevation is the new 500.

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 3K NAM...our first Lucy of the season!!!!

[87storms]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z 3K NAM

How are the cherry blossoms doing?

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Welp, looks like I’ll need to drive up Hamburg Rd again to see snow. 1k ft elevation is the new 500.

 

 

We will still see snow. Will it amount to much? Who knows. It’s a race against rising temps. Snow on 12/2 is exciting all the same. 

[WxUSAF]

39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Advisory extended to NW Montgomery & NW Howard counties from 5am to 10am on Tues., 12/2:

 

Kids gonna get a 2 hour delay for cold rain 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Kids gonna get a 2 hour delay for cold rain 

I got my one day of weekly telework tomorrow. Thoroughly looking forward to whatever I can manage out of this event.

[wxmeddler]

If you like wintry precip, your goal today is to get the least amount of sunshine as possible, OR hope that the clear skies last as long past 4pm as possible.

[mitchnick]

Welp, there's a reason why I  expressed concern yesterday that the Nam and Icon were bad despite their secondary status. Even though climatologically speaking N&W typically does best, all areas in the MA need a modeling consensus or we rely on luck/fluke. Hopefully, either luck or fluke show up tomorrow for all of us, or at least a trend reversal at 18z.