mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: My weenie take is that I don’t think the EURO AI can handle tight details like p-type. Would also be why the ens have a snowy bias. It likes next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12z Euro significant shift NW. Waiting on the EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, bncho said: 12z Euro significant shift NW. Waiting on the EPS Please stop posting… It’s in line with the others. Not significant at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago WB 12Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO Seems like models settling in to the route 31 to 26 special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Please stop posting… It’s in line with the others. Not significant at all. He’s gonna be pretty bad this season. Anyway, you, mappy, Will and mitchnick really are one of the few here who should be vested in this. I lost complete interest after one day last week. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: He’s gonna be pretty bad this season. Anyway, you, mappy, Will and mitchnick really are one of the few here who should be vested in this. I lost complete interest after one day last week. Lord have mercy on us all. And I’m sure there’s other Fredrick and Carroll county crew on here that are vested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, TSSN+ said: Seems like models settling in to the route 31 special If this holds, I get an inch or so on the grass and roof with only marginal surface temps. I got a light dusting today; maybe we all cash in next weekend. Can't remember a trifecta within a week this early ever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If this holds, I get an inch or so on the grass and roof with only marginal surface temps. I got a light dusting today; maybe we all cash in next weekend. Can't remember a trifecta within a week this early ever.... what trifecta? We havent had anything yet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If this holds, I get an inch or so on the grass and roof with only marginal surface temps. I got a light dusting today; maybe we all cash in next weekend. Can't remember a trifecta within a week this early ever.... Gfs didn't look great for next weekend and Euro ain't too impressed either at 12z. I think we'll be holding our breaths on that one too unless the Euro AI is more right than wrong. Edit: Euro just blossomed precip for next weekend! Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Ji said: what trifecta? We havent had anything yet 1 minute ago, Ji said: what trifecta? We havent had anything yet Light dusting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Ji said: what trifecta? We havent had anything yet True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Eps out yet on WB or Weathermodels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Eps thru Tuesday 1pm 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs didn't look great for next weekend and Euro ain't too impressed either at 12z. I think we'll be holding our breaths on that one too unless the Euro AI is more right than wrong. Edit: Euro just blossomed precip for next weekend! Wtf? having that low in the great lakes is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, mitchnick said: Eps thru Tuesday 1pm EPS is worthless now. the event starts tomorrow man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Ji said: having that low in the great lakes is beautiful Yeah. What also bugs me is that when the slp reaches the coast to our south and then se, it doesn't switch back to snow from a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS is worthless now. the event starts tomorrow man Anything that shows snow is invaluable in Weenieville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yeah. What also bugs me is that when the slp reache's the coast to our south and then se, it doesn't switch back to snow from a mix. Not enough of a pressure gradient to drive cold air down back south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Despite JI, it finishes on the Eps like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EPS A-Okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe? Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe? Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet. This mirrors my thoughts as well. I'm ready to get you some honey mustard dipping sauce for your shoe if things break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 54 minutes ago Author Share Posted 54 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe? Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet. Agree with these numbers. At the moment I’m putting O/U for MBY around 0.3-0.5”. We’ll see where things sit tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 32 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps thru Tuesday 1pm Beautiful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: He’s gonna be pretty bad this season. Anyway, you, mappy, Will and mitchnick really are one of the few here who should be vested in this. I lost complete interest after one day last week. Very excited 2-3” IMBY seems reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Very excited 2-3” IMBY seems reasonable Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago Interesting observation about the AIFS deterministic model by Tomer. ( for future reference ) Tomer Burg @burgwx 2h So far this case seems to be more of an AIFS Ensemble than an AIFS deterministic success (at least on the synoptic scale) - the AIFS quickly trended more amplified and now has a stronger and farther north cyclone than the deterministic ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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