12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

My weenie take is that I don’t think the EURO AI can handle tight details like p-type. Would also be why the ens have a snowy bias. 

It likes next weekend.

[bncho]

12z Euro significant shift NW. Waiting on the EPS

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro significant shift NW. Waiting on the EPS

Please stop posting… 

It’s in line with the others. Not significant at all. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO

Seems like models settling in to the route 31 to 26 special 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Please stop posting… 

It’s in line with the others. Not significant at all. 

 

He’s gonna be pretty bad this season. 
 

Anyway, you, mappy, Will and mitchnick really are one of the few here who should be vested in this.  I lost complete interest after one day last week.  

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He’s gonna be pretty bad this season. 
 

Anyway, you, mappy, Will and mitchnick really are one of the few here who should be vested in this.  I lost complete interest after one day last week.  

Lord have mercy on us all. And I’m sure there’s other Fredrick and Carroll county crew on here that are vested. 

[Weather Will]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Seems like models settling in to the route 31 special 

If this holds, I get an inch or so on the grass and roof with only marginal surface temps.

I got a light dusting today; maybe we all cash in next weekend.  Can't remember a trifecta within a week this early ever....

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

If this holds, I get an inch or so on the grass and roof with only marginal surface temps.

I got a light dusting today; maybe we all cash in next weekend.  Can't remember a trifecta within a week this early ever....

what trifecta? We havent had anything yet

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

If this holds, I get an inch or so on the grass and roof with only marginal surface temps.

I got a light dusting today; maybe we all cash in next weekend.  Can't remember a trifecta within a week this early ever....

Gfs didn't look great for next weekend and Euro ain't too impressed either at 12z. I think we'll be holding our breaths on that one too unless the Euro AI is more right than wrong. 

Edit: Euro just blossomed precip for next weekend! Wtf?

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

what trifecta? We havent had anything yet

1 minute ago, Ji said:

what trifecta? We havent had anything yet

Light dusting today.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

what trifecta? We havent had anything yet

True

[mitchnick]

Eps out yet on WB or Weathermodels?

[mitchnick]

Eps thru Tuesday 1pm

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs didn't look great for next weekend and Euro ain't too impressed either at 12z. I think we'll be holding our breaths on that one too unless the Euro AI is more right than wrong. 

Edit: Euro just blossomed precip for next weekend! Wtf?

having that low in the great lakes is beautiful

[Ji]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Eps thru Tuesday 1pm

EPS is worthless  now. the event starts tomorrow man

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

having that low in the great lakes is beautiful

Yeah. What also bugs me is that when the slp reaches the coast to our south and then se, it doesn't switch back to snow from a mix.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS is worthless  now. the event starts tomorrow man

Anything that shows snow is invaluable in Weenieville.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah. What also bugs me is that when the slp reache's the coast to our south and then se, it doesn't switch back to snow from a mix.

Not enough of a pressure gradient to drive cold air down back south

[mitchnick]

Despite JI, it finishes on the Eps like this.

[bncho]

EPS A-Okay

 

[Terpeast]

Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. 

Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe?

Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. 

Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe?

Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet. 

This mirrors my thoughts as well. I'm ready to get you some honey mustard dipping sauce for your shoe if things break our way.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. 

Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe?

Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet. 

Agree with these numbers. At the moment I’m putting O/U for MBY around 0.3-0.5”. We’ll see where things sit tomorrow morning. 

[mappy]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps thru Tuesday 1pm

Beautiful

[mappy]

46 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He’s gonna be pretty bad this season. 
 

Anyway, you, mappy, Will and mitchnick really are one of the few here who should be vested in this.  I lost complete interest after one day last week.  

Very excited 2-3” IMBY seems reasonable 

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Very excited 2-3” IMBY seems reasonable 

Enjoy

[frd]

Interesting observation about the AIFS deterministic model by Tomer. ( for future reference ) 

Tomer Burg    @burgwx    2h

 

 

So far this case seems to be more of an AIFS Ensemble than an AIFS deterministic success (at least on the synoptic scale) - the AIFS quickly trended more amplified and now has a stronger and farther north cyclone than the deterministic ECMWF: