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First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

We just don’t know!

There’s also a psychological element here likely arising from the social media era. 

Exactly! Our memories cherry pick the Euro nailing the key events of the last 20 years (2013, Sandy, etc.)

So you are saying that the forecasts you got today for Tuesday are more accurate than they were 15 years ago. People keep mentioning selective Cherry pickin memory . I suppose its better than no memory like some are exhibiting in this thread.

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Lots of posters will be disappointed if Stowe doesn't add onto their record or near-record early season snow pack with a favorable pattern for NNE out as far as the eye can see. 

dendrite
dendrite

18z euro is south. Gotta get that post in. 

Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

Bit too much of this growing up.

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally disagree and pretty condescending as you have no idea why people think the model forecasts outside day 3 are not that much better, as to induce higher confidence in forecasts.  Thats a figment of imagination. 

I thought dope was supposed to make you mellow?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So its bias flipped to overamped super deep highly convective POS and that's better.  I suggest here forecasters can't figure out the sensible weather biases anymore and it is infuriating. 

Idk what we’re even arguing anymore. I had been saying the GFS was likely overdoing the amplification the past couple days. But the gfs and ec were polar outliers and guess what? They’ve been slowly meeting in the middle. But I don’t recall the GFS being the NW extreme a common occurrence. 

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

So you are saying that the forecasts you got today for Tuesday are more accurate than they were 15 years ago. People keep mentioning selective Cherry pickin memory . I suppose its better than no memory like some are exhibiting in this thread.

No. I’m more on the side of the forecast I got today for Tuesday is different than the one I got 15 years ago in terms of the information at our fingertips.
15 years ago…. What model output did we have? Particularly from the ECMWF suite… 500 mb heights? MSLP?

We’d have to wait for one of the mets with a WSI membership to tell us what it showed. today…. We can all see it and infer our own takeaways. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I do wonder if it benefited from only being run 2 times a day. 

We benefited from it for sure.

Say you see 12z and a storm is tracking in location X…. then we have to wait until 00z and its only 30 miles north…  it seems like it’s making small movements.

What we didn’t see was 18z that was 50 miles south… then 80 miles north 6 hours later…now we see an intermediary run and think the model is all over the place.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Idk what we’re even arguing anymore. I had been saying the GFS was likely overdoing the amplification the past couple days. But the gfs and ec were polar outliers and guess what? They’ve been slowly meeting in the middle. But I don’t recall the GFS being the NW extreme a common occurrence. 

I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. 
 

I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally disagree and pretty condescending as you have no idea why people think the model forecasts outside day 3 are not that much better, as to induce higher confidence in forecasts.  Thats a figment of imagination. 

Condescend this :weenie: lol.

It’s all good Ginxy, I respect your opinion.  I just think we have too much info now and it skews our perception.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We benefited from it for sure.

Say you see 12z and a storm is tracking in location X…. then we have to wait until 00z and its only 30 miles north…  it seems like it’s making small movements.

What we didn’t see was 18z that was 50 miles south… then 80 miles north 6 hours later…now we see an intermediary run and think the model is all over the place.

I don't think this is inherently true... more runs should provide smaller moves per run if the model is stable and the assimilation is consistent.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Condescend this :weenie: lol.

It’s all good Ginxy, I respect your opinion.  I just think we have too much info now and it skews our perception.

The more info the more we should be able to assimilate the data instead you  claim the opposite.  That is contrary to scientific reasoning. 

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. 
 

I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys

Has the AI Euro scored a coup yet?  I was really interested and watched it closely last year, not just here but across the CONUS, and my anecdotal take was that it sucked for east coast cyclogenesis and atmospheric rivers out west.  But maybe I missed something.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

No. I’m more on the side of the forecast I got today for Tuesday is different than the one I got 15 years ago in terms of the information at our fingertips.
15 years ago…. What model output did we have? Particularly from the ECMWF suite… 500 mb heights? MSLP?

We’d have to wait for one of the mets with a WSI membership to tell us what it showed. today…. We can all see it and infer our own takeaways. 

True but it can be known now and shared some of us had the keys to WSI

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