Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: We just don’t know! There’s also a psychological element here likely arising from the social media era. Exactly! Our memories cherry pick the Euro nailing the key events of the last 20 years (2013, Sandy, etc.) So you are saying that the forecasts you got today for Tuesday are more accurate than they were 15 years ago. People keep mentioning selective Cherry pickin memory . I suppose its better than no memory like some are exhibiting in this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Folks cocked up , high , Hammertime tonight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 The other item is 15 years ago some of the posters in here were like 15 yrs old without a real clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally disagree and pretty condescending as you have no idea why people think the model forecasts outside day 3 are not that much better, as to induce higher confidence in forecasts. Thats a figment of imagination. I thought dope was supposed to make you mellow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Hammertime What's Ryan say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: So its bias flipped to overamped super deep highly convective POS and that's better. I suggest here forecasters can't figure out the sensible weather biases anymore and it is infuriating. Idk what we’re even arguing anymore. I had been saying the GFS was likely overdoing the amplification the past couple days. But the gfs and ec were polar outliers and guess what? They’ve been slowly meeting in the middle. But I don’t recall the GFS being the NW extreme a common occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just now, kdxken said: I thought dope was supposed to make you mellow? Dope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: What's Ryan say? He’s in Atlanta but siding with Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Dope? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s in Atlanta but siding with Nam No surprise. 84 hr NAM lol Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The other item is 15 years ago some of the posters in here were like 15 yrs old without a real clue Some of us were 45 years old 15 years ago. Didn't have a clue then, don't have a clue now. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Dope? Argue with AI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: So you are saying that the forecasts you got today for Tuesday are more accurate than they were 15 years ago. People keep mentioning selective Cherry pickin memory . I suppose its better than no memory like some are exhibiting in this thread. No. I’m more on the side of the forecast I got today for Tuesday is different than the one I got 15 years ago in terms of the information at our fingertips. 15 years ago…. What model output did we have? Particularly from the ECMWF suite… 500 mb heights? MSLP? We’d have to wait for one of the mets with a WSI membership to tell us what it showed. today…. We can all see it and infer our own takeaways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just now, kdxken said: Dope to me has always been Heroin Opium but I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I do wonder if it benefited from only being run 2 times a day. We benefited from it for sure. Say you see 12z and a storm is tracking in location X…. then we have to wait until 00z and its only 30 miles north… it seems like it’s making small movements. What we didn’t see was 18z that was 50 miles south… then 80 miles north 6 hours later…now we see an intermediary run and think the model is all over the place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Some of us were 45 years old 15 years ago. Didn't have a clue then, don't have a clue now. True me too but too much fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Dope to me has always been Heroin Opium but I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Idk what we’re even arguing anymore. I had been saying the GFS was likely overdoing the amplification the past couple days. But the gfs and ec were polar outliers and guess what? They’ve been slowly meeting in the middle. But I don’t recall the GFS being the NW extreme a common occurrence. I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Here's my gig. This place gets very boring and repetitive so we try to stimulate convo and it works. Peeps get real deep thoughts not many fly by night "must be dope" posts. I am never angry but definitely always up for a debate. Sometimes it's good to be contra 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally disagree and pretty condescending as you have no idea why people think the model forecasts outside day 3 are not that much better, as to induce higher confidence in forecasts. Thats a figment of imagination. Condescend this lol. It’s all good Ginxy, I respect your opinion. I just think we have too much info now and it skews our perception. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just please don’t let the NAM be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 45 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: OT but is the east side of Simsbury really low in elevation? I'm surprised you're < 200' Quite a bit of variation through town. East side on the Bloomfield line can have a couple inches, and the west side of town have 4 times that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We benefited from it for sure. Say you see 12z and a storm is tracking in location X…. then we have to wait until 00z and its only 30 miles north… it seems like it’s making small movements. What we didn’t see was 18z that was 50 miles south… then 80 miles north 6 hours later…now we see an intermediary run and think the model is all over the place. I don't think this is inherently true... more runs should provide smaller moves per run if the model is stable and the assimilation is consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just please don’t let the NAM be right It will be and for the rest of the winter no matter what people will ride it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Condescend this lol. It’s all good Ginxy, I respect your opinion. I just think we have too much info now and it skews our perception. The more info the more we should be able to assimilate the data instead you claim the opposite. That is contrary to scientific reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonegalt Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Dope to me has always been Heroin Opium but I guess. Weed is dope. Been smokin dope since '70. No one ever thought dope meant junk except Raymond Chandler readers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys Has the AI Euro scored a coup yet? I was really interested and watched it closely last year, not just here but across the CONUS, and my anecdotal take was that it sucked for east coast cyclogenesis and atmospheric rivers out west. But maybe I missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just now, gonegalt said: Weed is dope. Been smokin dope since '70. No one ever thought dope meant junk except Raymond Chandler readers. You see the doc and movie Dope Sick? Pretty sure that's not weed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonegalt Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Just now, Ginx snewx said: You see the doc and movie Dope Sick? Pretty sure that's not weed I never use show biz as evidence of anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 20 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: No. I’m more on the side of the forecast I got today for Tuesday is different than the one I got 15 years ago in terms of the information at our fingertips. 15 years ago…. What model output did we have? Particularly from the ECMWF suite… 500 mb heights? MSLP? We’d have to wait for one of the mets with a WSI membership to tell us what it showed. today…. We can all see it and infer our own takeaways. True but it can be known now and shared some of us had the keys to WSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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